We already saw some fantastic action at Mid Penns and DELCOs and this week should not fail to deliver either. Here are some meets I'm keeping an eye on as I try to map out the remainder of the state wide play off picture.
10/13 Chesmont
The Chesmont championships are always an exciting time. There are usually a few of the states top 5 or so teams competing and plenty of top individuals. This year's meet should be highlighted by the Henderson v. DT West match up as Henderson tries to hold onto their spot atop the District. With Conestoga faltering a bit this weekend against LaSalle, a dominating performance by either Henderson or West could make them the favorites next week at the District championship. Behind these squads, it will be interesting to see how teams like Great Valley, Rustin, Coatesville, DT East and Avon Grove battle. I'm a bit surprised that Avon Grove hasn't received a bit talk as they have had a pretty strong season, highlighted by Josh Smith and Jake Ilgenfritz, both guys I see as state qualifiers this year. They were 12th at pre states, roughly 20 points behind Great Valley. DT East has looked strong at various meets, including the white race at Paul Short. Overall, the battle for third may end up being more interesting than the battle for first.
Individually, Henry Sappey is the favorite in my eyes after a fantastic start to his season for DT West. West is determined to take the league title this year and a Sappey win would help them out a lot. Knapp, Henderson's front runner, is a strong runner who does his best racing at the end of the season when it counts most. I'm not sure he can outlast Sappey this week, but I do expect him to be in the medals at states. Josh Smith and Eric Diestelow are the top returners from this meet and both have been strong this season, particularly Diestelow who is coming off a 16:02 at Lehigh. Ettien from Coatesville, O'Reilly from DT East, Ellis from GV, Vogt and Carmody from Rustin, Ilgenfritz and the remaining members of Henderson and DT West's top 5 are other individuals who will be in the mix for the top 10. Another name to remember may be Austin Maxwell from Kennent.
Ultimately, I see Sappey winning this race, but Henderson just barely edging out DTWest for the title.
For those of you looking to place some bets in our imaginary money betting pool here are some odds for you:
Sappey 2:1
Knapp 4:1
Diestelow 6:1
Smith 8:1
Field 15:1
Henderson (-3) v DT West
Winning time over/under: 16:24
10/14 Berks
Twin Valley wasn't at the Mid Penn championship, but they do have a chance to show their stuff against some other top District 3 teams at Berks. A strong showing from their key 5 would be huge going into districts. Kyle Shinn and Jack DiContino from Wyomissing will be among the names competing for a title along with Coakley from Twin Valley, Mills from Governor Mifflin and possibly Jacob Connors from Wilson.
10/14 Lancaster-Lebanon
This meet should round out the AAA team talks nicely with Hempfield and McCaskey doing battle. Cedar Crest also should be interesting to watch and AA Manheim Central will look to have continued success this season. Anville Cleona is looking to gain some confidence going into states as right now they are probably a bubble team behind York Suburban, Manheim Central and Palmyra. McCaskey had a really strong top 3 the last time we saw them race, but had a bit of a trouble at the 5 spot which kept them out of the podium spots at Carlisle. They are a serious sleeper team going into districts and have the potential to make a big time statement. Henderson, the soph from McCaskey, with be one of the front runners in the race. Brian Delaney from Manheim Township is a name to watch, he is a darkhorse pick to win the District championships in a week +.
10/14 YIAA
Aaron Gebhardt will look to grab the title and gain some positive momentum going into Districts and states. He will mainly be battling Brady Wilt and Donovan Mears of York Suburban. YS is clearly a very good team and the favorites for AA state champs, but Scranton Prep out of District 2 is lurking. Another strong showing from the 3, 4, 5 of York Sub would be a great boost to start of championship season. I'll also be watching Gatchell from Red Lion as a sleeper.
10/15 Ed Narkiewicz All- League Meet
Dom Hockenbury goes to work once again. He's the favorite for AA individual gold this season. The match up that I want to watch, however, is Dallas taking on Tunkhannock. Scranton Prep is the favorite to come out of District 2 this year, but there are two spots to be had in the AA race. It will come down to the youngsters of Dallas and the defending state champs in Tunkhannock. This meet ought to give us a good idea who the favorite is going into districts.
10/16 Tri States (Lebo, NA, Mars, SV, Grove City, Fox Chapel, Pitts CC, North Hills, Baldwin, Altoona, West Allegheny, Winchester, Sewickley, Avonworth, Knoch, South Fayette
Tri States will be crazy this year. It's a packed race with essentially all the District 7 teams from all the classes plus Grove City and Altoona jumping in. This is is such a large meet that front runners really mean a lot in overall team scoring, especially for the small schools. However, even an average #5 can end up completely buried in a field of this caliber. So I will be interested to see how North Hills and Fox Chapel rise to the occasion and if teams with a bit better of a pack like Baldwin and Pitts CC can get involved (non Canon Mac at this meet according to last year's results).
Sewickley, Avonworth and Winchester Thruston should all be involved in the big dance. WT should benefit from 2 or 3 very strong front runners while Sewickley has Mackey leading the way as a low stick. Avonworth doesn't have the same front running power, but they do have a strong pack. We won't be able to read too much into how these three teams finish as the lay out of districts will be considerably different, but it certainly will help develop a nice picture.
The AA race in District 7 should also be hotly contested. Mars, Knoch, West Allegheny, South Fayette and more should all be involved in the big dance this weekend and each will have the opportunity to show they are a top 4 team. Plus we have District 7 Grove City, who has quietly developed into a serious state title contender. Benka and Budnik have always been strong, but they are developing a really quality pack of guys behind them. The AA state title race may be a bit more wide open after this weekend finishes.
The highlight of the weekend should be round 1 of Mt. Lebo vs. NA. Now that the meet is in Cal, I think Lebo has a course advantage. They also have a really strong pack. But the pressure will be on Baun and Gunzenhauser to keep things close out front behind Seel, McGoey and Wharrey. Now keep in mind, NA didn't run their best 7 last weekend and they didn't run their full varsity at this meet last year either. So there is a chance we don't even see this much hyped match up surface. If NA puts their A team out there, I think they are strong enough to outlast Lebo, but things are going to be tight.
Individually, things should be very exciting if everyone brings their A team. Benka, Budnik and Faust bring in some serious fire power from outside the district. The rest is basically a district preview with the aforementioned NA and Lebo guys joining the likes of Jeff VanKooten, Tanner Quiggle, Mike Kolor, Griffin Mackey, Will Loevner, Landin Delaney and more. Jacob Heinauer from North Hills is a legitimate threat to win the meet, while Elias Graca is always dangerous after his 15:44 early season statement at RWB. The big sleeper make be Jake Susalla from Plum. This race is potentially incredibly wide open, with an exciting sprint to the finish looming.
For those who are interesting in the fantasy betting:
NA (-12) v Lebo
VanKooten 3:1
McGoey 4:1
Benka 5:1
Heinauer 7:1
Wharrey 8:1
Susalla 10:1
Graca 12:1
Mackey 12:1
Faust 15:1
Field 20:1
Top A District 7 Team
Sewickley 3:1
Avonworth 8:1
Winchester Thurston 8:1
Later in the week, I will preview some of the big D1 conference meets, but wanted to get these ones out there early while I had time so that people could discuss their thoughts with an adequate amount of time before the races.
10/17 SOL American
10/17 SOL National
10/17 SOL Continental
$100 on Diestelow at 6:1
ReplyDelete$100 of a winning Chesmont time under 16:24
$75 on McGoey at 4:1
-CM2
100 on diestelow winning chesmonts
ReplyDelete100 on henderson winning chesmonts
100 on winning chesmont time under 16:24
I also have a comment on the chesmont course, it seems to be shortened this year. The first half is the same but if you look on the course map (on penntrack), the red arrows do not go around the perimeter of the steeplechase part, which is the way the course was run last year. The course was definitely long last year (look at the times, cummings won in like 16:00 and he was running 15:30's all year, plus if you've ever run there you would know it is fairly flat, the weather last year was pretty good as well, so it wasn't course difficulty for slower times). So can anyone confirm or deny this? I and others would love to know. But if the course is shortened than that 16:24 should be pretty attainable and it probably isn't a good over/under, IF the course is shortened.
TR25
I posted this on a separate thread so I thought I might as well post it here.
ReplyDeleteHere's my top 25 for Chesmonts...
1. Sappey- DW
2. Diestelow- WCE
3. Knapp- WCH
4.G. Barchet-WCH
5. Swart-WCH
6. O'Reilly-DE
7. Eitten-CV
8. J. Smith-AG
9. Vogt-WCR
10. R. Barton-DW
11. Carmody-WCR
12. Ellis- GV
13. Smucker-WCH
14. Ilgenfritz-AG
15. Maxwell-K
16. Breslin-BS
17. Feeney-GV
18. Cook-WCR
19. Bush-SV
20. Bullock-DW
21. Ganly-K
22. O'Neil-DW
23. DelVecchio-UV
24. Ruprechet-CV
25. D. Jackson-DE
I see the race going out somewhat conservatively. The top guys are already incredibly close as it is and I can't image anyone takes a chance by going out fast. I see the front 7 pulling away a mile in and then Sappey, Diestelow, and Knapp really making a charge that last mile with Sappey pulling away in the end. Barchet and Swart have been quietly very good this season and I think they prove they are for real. I say O'Reilly from East has a good day. He's been consistent all season. Smith has a somewhat off day. Haven't seen too much from him this season and I think that hurts him a little as the big races start.
Sorry DWest fans but I just don't see a way Henderson loses. They are simply way too good up front and even if I am placing some of those guys too high I still see them having 4 guys medaling (top 25 medal I believe). DWest will hold their own as their depth is spread out pretty equally. They have a secure 2nd spot. 3rd place is very tough. I've got it between Rustin, Great Valley, and DEast. I'm struggling not to be bias off of the Paul Short times but Rustin seems to be the guys to go to 3rd. They have a talented pack that is somewhat tight. If they have a really good day, we could see them getting awfully close to DWest. Like I said though, I might be looking too far into those Paul Short times. Great Valley is my 4th spot. Their pack is very tight and they've been slowly putting together solid performances all season and they always peak in the post-season. It is truly tough to say what they have considering they haven't really been on a fast course yet. I'll give DEast my 5th spot. Their top 3 is reliable which I believe is crucial for a team to be competitive. Yet, their 4-5 lag behind a little.
Here's what I got:
1. WCH
2. DW
3. WCR
4. GV
5. DE
6. CV
7. AG
8. BS
-RunFaster
I agree with everything you said, but only the top 20 medal at chesmonts.
DeleteBruh. It be the top 24 medaling at chesmonts doe.
Delete100 on Sappey
ReplyDelete100 on WCH
75 on McGoey
-WeDemBoyz
Ches-Mont 1
ReplyDelete100 on WCH
100 on sub 16:24
100 on NA
100 on McGoey
$100 on each of these
ReplyDeleteSappey
Henderson
Time under 16:24
Nufty
$100 on Diestelow
ReplyDelete$100 on Dwest
$100 winning time over 16:24
Henderson winning Chesmonts has been routine but I do like Dwest's depth and how Sappey has become a frontrunner. And since I'm up a few fake dollars, why not take the odds Etrain is giving. I would have been tempted if there were long odds for Rustin too. Vogt went 16:32 at Paul Short and Carmody/Cook looked good at the WCH invite. However, like Dwest they might be down a couple of key guys due to injury. It should be be a closer race for the team title than the last several years though.
- RJJL
YAIAA has a couple of other sleeper that are worth keeping an eye on as well. Ben Schott of Southwestern has been running well all year, I would look for him to finish with a good time this week. Dan Filler of Gettysburg is also worth keeping an eye on. He's had some really solid races, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him up with the top pack. Ultimately, here's how I see it playing out:
ReplyDelete1: Gebhart-15:35-45
2: Brady Wilt-16:00-10
3: Donovan Mears-16:10-15
4: Ben Schott-16:20-30
5: Ethan Gatchell-16:20-30
-GBC
DW Wins
ReplyDeleteAnybody have district 3 conference results?
ReplyDeleteYeah...YAIAA was a bit on the slow side. Gebhart took the win in 16:11, Wilt was about 25 seconds back. After that Mears, Filler, and Schott rounded out the top 5. Nothing too special, really. Gebhart said he's still training through stuff though, so we'll see what he breaks out next week.
ReplyDelete-GBC