Why PA Would Beat NY In a Dual Meet

by etrain11

The state of New York certainly has a strong program of athletes and my friend Alex has (with only a tiny bit of bias) outlined a very well thought out post on way the great state of New York would beat Pennsylvania in a dual meet. But, unfortunately, my friend has overlooked some incredibly important details when analyzing this contenders. You see unlike New York with, to quote Bane here, "your precious Armory", we PA runners are not constantly running on the fastest track in the world during the winter. In fact half of our top notch runners completely skip the indoor season all together. Last time I checked it's spring now (although the snow seems to disagree with me) and the boys who have been slugging it up on tiny tracks like Lehigh or, I shudder to think, Glenn Mills are now on equal footing to the gangs of New York.

As another great Batman villan once said, "And here ... we ... go ..."

400m
I'll give you the fact that the 400m is loaded this year in New York and this is a bit of a down period for the PA boys at this distance. Raj Benjamin is great and Richard Rose is a stud (not sure how you can reasonable argue for Brown over Rose and both guys in the low 46s, but I suppose that's besides the point). If Lewis were to go in this event, I believe he could hold his own and our 200m and 60m talent shows we have sprint depth, just not quite enough to get things done in this event. I think Snorweah, Tyler Whitmore (barely ran indoors at all and is just learning to run the 400m, keep an eye on him outdoors) and others could certainly hold their own and their is no way this would be a sweep 1-5. However, if I'm being fair, the NY boys take the top three spots in this event.

1. Benjamin
2. Rose
3. Brown

NY - 9, PA - 0

800m
I'm afraid your bias was on full display during this event my friend. Unlike the New York boys who had more than one top guy just skip the state meet entirely, winning state gold actually means something to the PA kids. John Lewis ran the 800m (leading wire to wire), the 4x200m and the 4x400m, winning an impressive 3 gold medals and nearly setting a state record with one of the best individual 800m performances of ALL TIME. So when he hit nationals with tired legs all he did was go for it from the gun and split a 1:51 (his third mark of 1:51 or faster this season and fourth at 1:52 or better).

Meanwhile your boy Asselmeyer with tired legs? Ran a 1:53.1 in the national final at New Balance to finish well out of the running for the title. This race would get out hard and Lewis (who has run 1:50.01, 1:50.57 and low 1:51 3x) would take things out hard and Asselmeyer (who's open PR is sitting right now around 1:52.81, basically the same time Lewis was running all the way back in December) would have no shot at gold. Relay splits are nice at all, but when things are set up to just chase people all day with a running start it's a different story than a real, true 800m race.

Elias Graca, who ran 1:53.1 and 1:50.8 this year already, would come in to pick up the scraps on the back end of this one and get a valuable second place finish. Graca is just getting started by the way as he was a non-factor outdoors before bursting through for a 1:53 last spring. This winter could just be scratching the surface of his potential.

I'll give Asselmeyer third, but by the time this outdoor season finishes up, PA may be in line for the sweep. Domenic Perretta ran 1:52.77 at the end of a 3200m-1600m-800m triple last year as just a sophomore. Then he went ahead and won AA state titles in the 1600m and the 800m. As he makes the sophomore to junior jump, he could make a huge leap. He has still yet to be truly challenged on PA surface. Sauer is no joke either.

1. Lewis
2. Graca
3. Asselmeyer

NY - 10 PA - 8

1600m
Burke has been great all indoors. I give complete credit to the pseudo national champ who has run 4:08 for the mile and won NY states and Millrose. He deserves credit for his fantastic running and he would probably win this state meet if things were a flat out rabbit race from the gun. That being said, all too often the races don't pan out that way and the PA boys would be chomping at the bit to run him down.

Your NY milers are mainly strength runners with solid 3200m marks, but we know in the longer stuff it's easier to follow than to lead. And Sam Ritz (1:51 PR and has also clocked 4:08 right next to Burke) as well as Zach Brehm (sub 4:10 miler as a sophomore and PA state champion at 800m) have the blazing closing speed to run down Burke or Spiezio if this thing drags int the middle or late stages. Brehm ran 4:10 last year outdoors at Nationals for a full mile (a time faster than any full mile from an underclassmen from NY a year ago) and is a tactically strong runner who basically skipped indoors for the second straight year to help him peak for the exact right moment. Ritz was right next to Burke at Nationals and was consistently improving all season long, at the very least he's in the mix if he doesn't get the win.

PA also has a recovering Jaxson Hoey (9:05ish and 4:11ish when you convert his 1500m last year as only a sophomore) who could make a big jump this spring if he is healthy. Those three would all be in the mix regardless of how the race tactics play out and I think PA ultimately will take two scorers in this event.

I'll give Burke some respect after his fantastic indoor season, but Brehm and Ritz would clean up the remaining medals with their speed and strength. They can hold on if the pace is quick and kick by the stragglers if any remain.

1. Burke
2. Ritz
3. Brehm

NY - 15, PA - 12

3200m
Fun fact: PA's best two milers were no where to be seen during indoors. Kevin James, Sam Webb and Jake Brophy are arguably the states best two milers (James ran 9:03 last year, Webb ran 9:08 and Brophy set a Hershey state record this past fall running in the 15:20s when the old record was 15:40s by sub 9 minute man Tony Russell). Throw in Matt McGoey (state champ at 3000m and 9:12 3200m a year ago) and then likely Dominic Hockenbury (cruised to a pair of state championships with a 9:17 and an XC title in AA) who was the runner up at states and PA has an excellent crop of runners ready to do battle. Keep in mind that PA would be leaving guys like Casey Comber (sub 15 5k that earned All-American honors in said event) on their bench in this scenario because they are so dang deep.

Unfortunately, the incredible depth isn't quite as valuable in a situation like this where NY has such excellent front running. The sub 9 men in Tooker and Brannigan would make things difficult for the PA boys and I know that Brannigan has wheels (although if he celebrates early PA has a 4:10 type man in KJ and a 4:12ish man in Sam Webb ready to hawk them down). PA has their own crop of guys looking to break the 9 minute barrier this year and would compete valiantly in this event, but ultimately, even though in an 8 man scoring system they would do better, I think they would have to settle for just third with likely James taking that spot.

I'm just saying, when the times start dropping this spring the PA boys will be making up ground here. But for now ....

1. Tooker
2. Brannigan
3. James

NY - 23, PA - 13

4x400m
Cheltenham. It's all Cheltenham. They can win with a hand tied behind their back. Lewis is a stud, Brissett is a stud and these guys have been kings of the 4x4 for quite some time now. They get gold. Then I feel that you are underselling some of the excellent relay depth we have in PA. There is Penn Wood, who finished 3rd at Nationals, winning one of the slower sections with beautifully even splits. If they found their way into the fast section, they likley would have cracked 3:20. Neshaminy High School "only" ran 3:22 this year, but they did it at states after some doubling and tripling with the 4x2, 4x4 and open events. Sean Conway is a stud and Dave Marrington has run 37ish for the 300m hurdles. That's a nice 1-2 punch. We also have squads like Upper Darby who have run with Cheltenham this year and the Pennsbury boys could technically compete well here (although Sauer would likely be saved for the 4x8).

The PA boys don't get the chance to run at a fast track like the Armory very often, and when they do it's usually after the doubling and tripling that comes with going all out at the state championships. The 4x4 at states in PA routinely has a slew of teams under 3:20, sometimes teams have to run under 3:20 just to get in the top 8 and make the finals. By the end of spring, I'd imagine there are least 3 4x400m relays from PA that have 3:17 or faster (Penn Wood ran 3:17.98 last year and they are better this year). But for now I will give some respect to the NY squads who get the chance to run fast all the time at the worlds fastest track and settle letting the national runner ups in Clara Barton get a point.

1. Cheltenham
2. Penn Wood
3. Clara Barton

NY- 24, PA- 22

4x800m
This event would surely be an exciting way to settle the events of the day. Fortunately for you Asselmeyer gets to come back with virtually fresh legs for this relay which complicates the PA title push a little bit. The New York teams really threw down at Nationals so they have the hot hand as of late, however, the statistical prowess of PA in the 4x8 over the past years can not be overlooked. Here's a look at the top times from PA teams over the last few years:
2014- 7:41.99
2013- 7:47ish (PA states ended up dreadfully windy and Bensalem would have run much faster considering they had a 1:52, 1:51 and 1:55 guy on their team)
2012- 7:43, 7:43, 7:44
2011- Two teams under 7:40
2010- 7:43, 7:44, 7:44 and 10 teams under 7:50
2009- 7:33, 7:40, 9 teams at 7:47 or faster, 7 teams at 7:44 or faster, 10 teams under 7:50
2008- another team under 7:40

So yeah, we've been pretty successful in this event. And Pennsbury looks like next in line to the throne. On tired legs (their best two runners were doubling off big open PRs), Pennsbury still dominated and won in 7:51. Pennsbury would certainly hold their own in this race and is just coming into their own as a relay (they improved consistently throughout the season).

As I've metioned before the depth in PA is outstanding, especially in the middle distance (5 teams in the top 31 a year ago despite O'Hara not truly running an "A" squad), but I think NY would indeed get the job done out front, just enough to end up clinching the meet.

1. Fordham Prep
2. Pennsbury
3. Arlington

NY - 30, PA - 25

So, yes I do agree that New York holds the title for now. That being said, Penn Relays is less than a month away and unlike the countless indoor meets held at the Armory Center, you New York boys will have to come into our house now and the tables certainly will take an interesting turn.