9 Minutes

By etrain11

It's been an out of state bonanza as of late on the blog between the NY injection from Fox and the potential for multiple out of staters to battle at the PA distance classic making the race a true meet of champions.

But the latest news to hit the web is that the Henderson 2 mile on May 1st will once again be fast and out of staters will likely play a role here as well. The recent word from Coach K is that CBA, the dominant program from New Jersey, is looking to send some members of their squad to our neck of the woods for the famed 3200m, leading many to the logical question: is PA ready for another sub 9?

Well naturally, I decided it was about time to investigate. I've discussed ad naseum the names from this years very large talent pool, but perhaps the better idea would be to study the people have already joined the sub 9 club.

I'll tell you one thing: it's a short list. You can see the full list of the top 50 3200m times in state history here on the blog anytime you wish, but for those of you looking for an easy read here's the names:

1. Paul Springer 8:48

2. Chris Spooner 8:53

3. Ross Wilson 8:56

4. Tony Russell 8:57

5. Max Kaulbach 8:58

6. Mike Connelly 8:58

7. Kevin McGarry 8:59

8. Ian Fitzgerald 8:59

9. Colin Martin 8:59

If you count 3ks that convert to sub 9 using the official milesplit converter (which I'm not completely sure I do but I'll list them for fun) you also get these guys

Bo Smart 8:57c

Dom Deluca 8:58c

Jake Walker 8:58c

Craig Miller 8:59c

Chris Dugan 8:59c

For the record, Dugan also ran 9:00 for 3200m, Deluca 9:03, and Walker 9:04. Miller's came indoors his senior year before injury took away his outdoors (but he beat Walker heads up in that record setting 3k pretty handily if memory serves).

So what jumps out from this list? Well first things first, how good was last year's crop of 2 milers? 4 guys at the equivalent of sub 9 in one year? That's absurd.

But that's also an interesting concept, one that I will preach over and over again here on my blog: fast breeds fast. You know what the best way to set a record is? Race somebody else who sets a record. Just ask Ross Wilson, Jake Brophy, or Sam Ritz? How about Brad Miles and Craig Miller before them? And Paul Springer? The list goes on ...

That's why these all star meets/stacked twilight meets/state championships account for basically all the sub 9s on the list. Deluca's 9:03 from D2 last year is arguably the most impressive 3200 of the last couple years simply because he was relatively unchallenged and just dominated his way to 9:03. That's very, very hard to do. And note in only ended in 9:03 and not 8:59.

Here's another fun fact, fast two milers are fast one milers. Again, obvious but let's put some numbers on it just to clarify. Check out the mile PRs of the sub 9 guys:

6 at 4:08 or better

10 at 4:14 or faster 

2 more others (Deluca and Martin).

Deluca, as mentioned, did it for 3k in a loaded Penn Relays race and Martin ran 8:59.9 for third at the best state 3200 ever. But all the same their success proves a fast mile time isn't everything, it just means you have to be ready to strike when the moment is right.

Another thing worth noting, that's Mike Connelly not Mike Conley or Mike Conley, Jr. That's key.

With all of these equally important facts in mind, I will revisit one more time this years crop of talent. But I will try to keep it brief. 

First you have Kevin, KJ, James currently sitting at 9:03.1 and the fastest returning mark in a season since Dustin Wilson in '11 (9:02) and Gil (9:03). Neither of those guys ran faster their senior seasons due to some unfortunate injuries.

But you know what? The top 9 guys on this list all ran their best times as Seniors and the top 15 only includes one junior time. Unlike the mile and the 800, Seniors tend to dominate this event and kids do their best running when they reach 18 year old status. So that gives James solid odds at sub 9.

Plus I kinda see some James, Springer comparisons looming. Springer and James ran basically identical times for the mile at indoor states, both had some record setting runs in XC, both were sub 9:05 as Juniors and both blasted impressive 3ks on flat tracks indoors but skipped that event at states.

I'm not saying James is running 8:48 this year (that time is sooo fast), but sub 9 is 100% in play.

Craig Miller never seriously went after the 2 mile, he set his sights on the mile most years running a 4:05c as a sophomore and a little bit slower as a junior. When he did run the two mile, it was often as part of some elaborate triple at the district 3 state championships.

Tell me, who does that sound like? Zach Brehm anyone? Look Brehm isn't Miller, he's not quite as fast in the mile and doesn't have the XC resume Miller has but he has a nice resume of his own with some similar patterns. But will Brehm ever find the time to chase a sub 9? Not sure I see a logical moment for him to go for it (especially considering the 8 is probably is better secondary distance and easier to double with for states), but he did cruise to sub 9:20 two years ago. 

Last year Tony Russell took the mile by the horns indoor and nearly captured a pair of state records in the process. Sub 9 was always among his goals but he put that off completely during indoors and waited until the right moment to strike outdoors. Then he ran the equivalent of sub 9 for 3200m twice.

Ritz put on an even more dominant clinic this indoor season and has already admitted that he wants sub 9. Even though Ritz ran faster than Russell's best open Mile on 2014 by a strong margin, remember that Russell split 4:07.1 indoors for 1600m to close out his winter. And of course Russell's XC resume is incredible. Ritz, like Brehm, is probably more 8-16 then 16-32, but Ritz was awesome this XC season, beating Marston at Manhattan and winning the independent league title. He also ran 9:10ish during XC season in a winning effort at Henderson's track. Could he be back there again this spring going after sub 9? Ben Ritz's 9:07 PR certainly doesn't hope so ....

Ross Wilson last year had a phenomenal year. After struggling to beat out PAs other top guns and step out of his opponents shadow, he broke free for a legendary 32 win at states and moved to #3 all time. He spent indoors developing a surprising bit of speed, running the equivalent of 4:13 for 1600m. He ran some 4x8 legs and dropped time there as well. 

Yes, I'm going with the Sam Webb comparison here. The old conference rival was very impressive speed wise this indoors and has proven he had the wheels for sub 9. He also ran 9:08.11 last year with barely enough time to round into shape after injury trouble. I've always been on the Webb bandwagon and it will be interesting to see if he can follow in Ross's footsteps. Having Webbed feet can't hurt.

There are many other comparisons I could make here, but some of them I've made like a million times and I feel bad making them again. 

There's McGoey and Gil (even though the more appropriate comparison would honestly be Colin Martin), there's the Hockenbury and Shearn (or Hock and Deluca, both work excellently and I probably prefer the two Dominics) and of course it wouldn't be a post about the 2 mile without the obligatory Comber and Max Norris comparison (fun fact, google tells me what kind of searches lead people to click on my blog and one of them was literally "Casey comber max Norris comparison"). 

I'll throw in a new one that I've been cooking up, Jake Brophy and Junior year Tony Russell. The same epic XC seasons. The same solid mile success indoors. I remember when the Russell buzz took off and Brophy's rise this fall and his subsequent winter lines up with my memory of that season well.

All those guys I'm comparing people to at least got close if they didn't quite get to the promise land of sub 9. 

The truth is, it's really hard to get there. That's why only 9 people have done it. But runners are rapidly improving at this distance more so than any other. This class is loaded and, bottom line, fast breeds fast.

Let the chase begin.