5,000m

Garrett Zatlin

5. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)- 13:41.00

4. Jason Witt (BYU)- 13:40.64

3. Will Geoghegan (Oregon)- 13:40.17

2. Parker Stinson (Oregon)- 13:39.98

1. Eric Jenkins (Oregon)- 13:37.20

Explanation: My bias speaks out a little less in this one. Curtin is seeded second on the performance list but I’m having one of those gut instincts where I don’t think he’ll match it. It’s a rationale I cant exactly explain. Witt of BYU has been outstanding this season. His 13:42 was practically run all alone and I believe he has some extra fuel in him which is why he’ll be fourth. I have Will Geoghegan getting third but mainly because a lot of the names around him weren’t doing it for me. Pierce Murphy (Colorado) has barely raced this season, Lutz (Texas) has been extremely inconsistent, and I haven’t seen a lot from Mark Parrish (Florida) this season. Second place goes to Parker Stinson mainly because I’m a big fan and he has proven that he can show up in the big time races. Eric Jenkins gets the win mainly because he’ll be completely fresh (no mile prelims or anything like that) and showed his 5k ability during outdoor nationals last year. And yes, this is the second time I’m putting his name down. Eric Jenkins will get double gold. You heard it here first.

Alex Fox

1) Eric Jenkins

2) Craig Lutz

3) Pierce Murphy

4) Jason Witt

5) Ammar Moussa

Last after being drenched in a strawberry milkshake) Parker Stinson  

Jenkins. He’s the guy. Craig Lutz is just too good to not run well here. There was no clear for second in my mind, so I’m going against my instinct here after Cross Nationals with Lutz. I have never figured out why Colorado’s success in cross hasn’t translated on the oval, but it will here with Murphy and Moussa. I called Moussa’s big finish at Nats, and I’m calling it again. Jason Witt is a pick a bit out of left field, but his huge PR this season gave me hope.

Caleb Gatchell

The 5k is one event I haven’t followed a whole lot this year, but Jenkins certainly appears to be the class of that field, so I’ll go with him for the win. Behind him, I really like Thomas Curtin. He has come on really well at the end of the year here, and I think he’ll continue his roll. In 3rd I’m going to go with Pierce Murphy. I know the Colorado guys have a reputation for underachieving indoors, and I know they don’t like that, so look for him to try to change that. Behind him I think Craig Lutz will run well, and nab that 4th spot. He’s had a rough last couple seasons by his standards, so I hope for his sake he can pull it out this time. And, finally, in 5th, another Duck in Parker Stinson. I think he might be the most underrated guy on that team, as he consistently scores well at NCAA’s. Look for him to do that again this year.
1: Eric Jenkins
2: Thomas Curtin
3: Pierce Murphy
4: Craig Lutz
5: Parker Stinson

etrain

This is event one in a string of must wins for the Ducks. They need every point they can get in pursuit of their title and they happen to have 3 killer dudes projected to line up for this event in Eric Jenkins (the #1 seed), Will Geoghegan (Oregon's version of Maksim Korolev) and Parker Stinson (third last year). That's a killer trio. Stinson is really more of a strength runner/10k guy which worries me if this thing gets tactical/isn't run at altitude (very likely) considering those two attributes were key in his run to the bronze a year ago. Jenkins is on fire this year. He was runner-up to Ches at NCAAs in cross, ran a blazing fast 3k at Millrose, beating Geoghegan in a final kick, and boasts a PR down under 13:20 on the outdoor oval from his Northeastern days. I won't pretend the fact that I own two Oregon sweatshirts, an Oregon racing singlet, and an Oregon hat doesn't imply a heavy bias for the men from Eugene, but the numbers suggest a potentially huge day for the Ducks with Jenkins being the gold medalist. Plus let's face it, how great would it be if Stinson had a huge day and Fox was pissed?

The Colorado Buffaloes are sending three of their XC studs to run the 5k at Nationals: Pierce Murphy, Morgan Pearson and Ammar Moussa. The Buffs have proven they are clutch and can peak right and although they have been relatively quiet on the track compared to the grass, they have proven themselves extremely well thus far this Winter. Arkansas' Kemoy Campbell has been a beast for years now ever since he won the Penn Relays 3000m in 2010 (a race I had the pleasure of witnessing in person). Campbell has a little history with Jenkins based on EJ's DQ in the 3k a couple years back where the two and Kirbuel Erassa were all mixed up tightly and shirts were grabbed.

The interesting question mark for me is, how is this race going to play out? Is there anyone with the balls to take it hard from the gun or at least keep things kind of honest, or this thing playing into the hands of those with the speed. You are looking at two very different outcomes depending on which is which, I could see Kemoy being that guy or possibly the Colorado guys will work together to ramp things up at the right moment, but ultimately, I think things are slow enough for at least the start of the day to keep Oregon's top two in position to strike late.

1. Eric Jenkins 14:20.13
2. Will Geoghegan 14:21.21
3. Pierce Murphy 14:21.85
4. Kemoy Campbell 14:22.77
5. Craig Lutz 14:23.66