As per request of Jarrett, I’ve decided to take a stab at how I think runners from my home state will fair this weekend at the Armory. Obviously, given the amount of talent in New York, my expectations are high. Although I’d love to see New Yorkers place well, what is much more important for me is fast times.This thinking that will drive these predictions, so I will try toestimate times as opposed to place. Enjoy!
400 Meter
I am finally getting my dream matchup of the big dogs from New York in a single race. That is of course, if they’re all healthy and make finals. The big dogs I am referring to are of course Izaiah Brown, Richard Rose, and Rai Benjamin. The three come in with open of 47.17 (Benjamin), 46.38 (Rose) and 46.61 (Brown), but all have split faster in relays. Rose is the biggest question mark, as he missed the state meet, but should he race, he could be a favorite to not only beat the other New Yorkers, but the entire field. Rai Benjamin is coming off a dominant state meet which capped off a dominant season, running 33.17 at the Armory in January and running 33.29 at states on a flat track, which set a meet record. Brown had a relatively disappointing state meet, where he split 48s twice in the prelims and finals of the 4x4, which were only good enough for a third place team finish. This time around, he’s on his own, matching his undeniable talent against all the best individuals across the country. Other New Yorkers in the race include two time state champ Luke Germanakos and Joshua Dacres. My predictions are as follows:
Rose (if healthy enough to race): 46.88
Benjamin: 46.62
Brown: 46.90
Germanakos: 48.8
Yes, I think all the big guns will break 47 in the race. I know, that is really fast, but all these guys are really fast. Call it wishful thinking, but I can’t help it! These are, in my opinion,the best New York has to offer, and it’s on them to defend their home turf.
800 Meters
This is an absolutely loaded race (a ton of PA guys I’m sure you all are excited about), which includes the best runner you’ve never heard of because of Grant Fisher: Donovan Brazier (1:48.61 PR). We’re not here to talk Michigan however, and the name really worth mentioning from New York is the champion at 1000 meters in James Asselmeyer. Asselmeyer clocked the second fastest at 1000m this year at 2:25.86, but his less than inspiring performance at states may have some people questioning what he’ll do at Nationals; I am not one of those people. Asselmeyer is the reason Arlington ran the fastest 4x8 in the nation this year by splitting 1:50. That said, I questionAsselmeyer’s ability to run with the likes of Brazier, BrandonMcGorty (Sean’s younger bro, a sophomore who has also split in the 1:50 range), Elias Graca, and the like. That doesn’t mean he can’t run real fast. The other New Yorkers in the race are Jake Johnson, who ran an impressive 1000 from the slow heat at states, and Shamarr Powell.
Asselmeyer: 1:51.71
Johnson: 1:54.12
Shamarr Powell: 1:55.20
Mile
At Millrose, the first five finisher all hailed from New York. Can we repeat that same success here at Nationals? The simple answer: No. Grant Fisher will be racing, and nobody’s beating him. That doesn’t mean we won’t see some real fast times from New Yorkers in this race, including Luke Gavigan, James Burke, Aidan Tooker, Jeremy Spiezio, and Conor Lundy. To be clear, Tooker and Lundy are both listed in this race and the two mile, and I expect them to run in one or the other. I’ll predict times for both them in both events, but those predictions will be based on the assumption that they are fresh. First things first: James Burke will be the fastest New Yorker. I don’t know if I necessarily feel this way deep down, but I owe it to him in these predictions. I am still not giving up on Gavigan and his past success in big races, so he’ll also run fast, but nothing out of this world. After Tooker and Brannigan got all the attention for their close finish at states, I have a feeling Lundy and Spiezio, who both ran impressive times in the same race, will come out with something to prove. My hope for Tooker is the two mile because I think that’s his strength, but his 4:11 isn’t something to be ignored.
Burke: 4:08.49
Gavigan: 4:11.07
Spiezio: 4:09.58
Lundy: 4:09.85
Tooker: 4:14.23
Yes, three guys under 4:10 is a lot, but like I said, I want to see fast times! I do think Lundy will be in this race, but even if he’s in the deuce, he’ll still run face, which you’ll see below.
Two Mile
In addition to Lundy and Tooker, Mikey Brannigan will have his chance for redemption from states in this race. Like Lundy and Tooker, Brannigan is in this and the 5k, but the full day in between the races leads me to believe he’ll race both.With that in mind, the debate becomes if Tooker can repeat his magic or if Brannigan can regain his form from outdoor nats. There will certainly be plenty of competition in guys like AlexOstberg and PA’s Kevin James. Hopefully we will see someone break the 9 minutes barrier.
Brannigan: 8:58.26
Tooker: 9:09.54
Lundy: 9:07.14
That’s right, I believe Mikey Brannigan will go sub 9. I don’t think this will be enough to overtake Ostberg, but after states, Brannigan will have a chip on his shoulder and a time this fast will set him up for a real nice final track season. He’s a tough runner, and he has something to prove every time he runs. I have a bit of a fall off here for Tooker. He’s still young, and it’s been a long season. After his performance at states, I have to imagine he’s feeling gassed. Tooker will run well here all things considered, rest up, and have a beast outdoor season.
5,000 Meters
The big name in this race is Brannigan. Everybody knows what Brannigan has done for two miles on the oval, but how will he fair in the 5k? I think well. Branniagan’s forte is sheer strength; he closed in 4:25 in running 8:53, meaning he can close hard after a fast start, and his final 400 was sub 60. I’m excited to see what Brannigan can do at this distance.
Brannigan: 14:23.72
A pretty fast for indoors, but like I said, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Just someone else from New York to note in this race: Jack Ryan. Nick Ryan’s (4:05 in HS) little brother was supposed to run at states but didn’t. He’s quick and only a junior. He may not turn any heads here, but look out for him next year.
Relays
Unfortunately due to time constraints, I won’t be able to go through each individual relay, but I will give you a few teams to look out for. In the 4x200, Newburgh is the US#1 and broke the state record this year, but their downfall may be handoffs. If the baton exchanges are clean however, they will be in contention for the win. Clara Barton, Amsterdam, and Huntington are all in the 4x4, but after the lackluster 4x4 at states, aren’t through the roof for any of these teams. Izaiah could pull a crazy split if he’s running people down, but my faith in his other legs isn’t there. It’d be nice to see one these teams break 3:20, and I give Huntington the best chance. Arlington and Shenendehowa have run the two fastest 4x8 times in the nation this year, but my faith is shaken after states. I like Shenendehowa to beat Arlington, but what they can do against the rest of the country remains to be seen. The 4xMile includes two real strong New York teams in Liverpool and St. Anthony’s; look for the latter to run near 17:20 and be in contention for the win. In the SMR, Boys and Girls will throw their hat in the ring, and have Richard Rose slated to run the anchor having split 1:50. Can they compete with my parent’s alma mater (fun fact!) in Cheltenham? We shall see. Four teams will represent New York in the DMR in Fordham Prep, Xavier, Syosset and Liverpool. Fordham Prep has nice balance and a strong anchor in Conor Lundy, but I really like Xavier in this race. Keep your eye out for them.
No comments:
Post a Comment