Let it Snow! With Previews!

By etrain11

Spring track is finally here! And it's nice to get some preview action going on the blog. Big shout to Sean Collins for already putting out the two best posts that the "etank" section as seen in blog history. Click on over and check it out. He does an excellent job previewing the PTFCA Classic action for the short stuff in that section. 

I will be covering the distance events in my own post and although the forecast is calling for potentially more snow this weekend, I remain cautiously optimistic because outdoor track is finally upon us! I took a look at the performance list and here are my thoughts about the potential distance line up for the season's opener.

DMR/4x8

I'm not sure if they have switched up the schedule, but I believe that this meet usually has the DMR as the first event and the 4x8 as the first event after an early afternoon lunch break, meaning these two events will be the first distance events (and more importantly, I doubt we will see two stacked distance relays from the same team).

Here are the key teams I picked out flipping through the list briefly over lunch:

DMR: Carlisle, CR South, Masterman, Methacton

4x8: Cheltenham, Malvern Prep, Neshaminy, Twin Valley, Masterman, Penn Wood, Methacton, Wilson (3)

For the DM it appears we will see the beginnings of what I believe is the most intriguing sub plot of early spring: can this Carlisle DMR get to Penn? It's a tough question because obviously this team is hoping for district and state glory at the end of May (and perhaps more in June for Brehm), but the window for Penn is small and there are only so many warm weather meets where you can get yourself into position. 

The key here is Wisner, who was one of the biggest break out stars of the year. If memory he serves, he lost one indoor race all year and it was in the middle heat at Nats where he ran low 1:55s in a crowded heat that was won in 1:51. Yikes. And honestly, Wisner might be just as good at the mile in the right race, I think he has the strength. He has potential to get you well under 3:10. Brehm at nats was still a mid to low 4:20s leg on the anchor and that's pretty good. Start a team with 3:10 and 4:20 and you need 52 2:08 to get to 10:30 assuming I can do basic math. The Penn barrier is usually 10:30ish and it probably will be faster this year. Keep in mind PA has already had O'Hara, Stoga, SJ Prep, DTW, and Malvern Prep at or under 10:30 ... Throw in Pennsbury who can get there if they want to and CB East (Brophy looked he killed that anchor leg at states on tired legs and they sacrificed some dudes in the open races indoors) and you have the deepest pool of relays in recent memory (even if no one is 10:00/10:05 good). Plus there inevitably will be a team that surprises their way to a sub 10:30 mark like CB South 2011 who broke 10:20 and nearly stole a PR Wheel from the great CBA thanks to Waddington and Gregor just being straight gutsy dudes.

Look, this isn't gonna be the meet where sub 10:30 is hit (as far as I can tell anyway), but you gotta get reps in at any event to get really good at it, especially the 1200m.

Also in the DMR might be A teams from CR South, Masterman or Methacton. I like this CR South squad. They were quite good last indoors but just got overshadowed in a deep race (I wish there was a DM somewhere at outdoor states ...) They also have some youth with guys still finding themselves on the top stage. This outdoors could be big for Hanna and MaGuire as they get more comfortable as top notch guys. Methacton is my sleeper here depending on if they play their cards here or fold.

As for the 4x8, do you guys mind if I maintain an irrational hope that we see a serious Cheltenham 4x8 this year? Ok awesome thanks. Chelt in 2013 had a sneaky good 4x8 with young Lewis running a huge 2nd leg and that was before he took the leap to multiple 1:50s and state championships. And they have other dudes who can stretch to 800m (Kyle Davis ran 2:01ish indoors in like December). Give them 1:50-1:58-2:02-2:02 and you're looking at 7:52. Give then 1:48-1:57-2:00-2:00 and you are looking at 7:45. 

 But the 4x8 doesn't gel with the team championship motto and probably doesn't make sense for state record pursuits. But it would be fun to see Lewis back on the long relay.

Malvern Prep could potentially be doing 4x8 here (McDevitt and Wills entered in some serious underdistance at 4 and 800) and considering the splits I saw online from nats (Doane clocked in 2 flatish) this team can get to sub 7:50 outdoors in warm weather. At this point however, seeing as they aren't PIAA, I would think the plan is something along the lines of: get a solid 4x8 mark as an assurance for the small school entries, try to boost the DM to make sure we get in at Penn and if not hopefully Billy can toe the line in the open mile. 

McDevitt beat Sauer in the 800m prior to states. He is an excellent miler, but the dude has sneaky good speed. 1:55.1 flat track suggests 1:52ish outdoors (at least considering Sauer ran 1:52 indoors). How would MP feel about a possible McDevitt and Wills switcharoo on the DM legs? Probably wouldn't try it, but it's fun to think about.

Neshaminy and Twin Valley are two teams I'm keeping a close eye on this outdoors. Both were very good indoors but just missed that step from good to great. Sleeper team is definitely Wilson from D3 behind Nick Mahon. 

1600m/800m/3200m

Kyle Shinn comes in as the likely favorite after an excellent indoor season. He will be matched up with Julian Degroot-Lutzner in a battle of two of the best AA milers in the state. Both men will be trying to get their times under 4:20 this year as they have to deal with a stud in Perretta and strength monster in Curtin this outdoors. That means you gotta be able to kick and you have to be able to run a strength race too.

Shinn, who I kinda thought was a 2 miler last year, is doubling back in the 800m which I find very exciting. Wyomissing had a nice 4x8 last year so Shinn has got speed (and when you can run 4:22ish that also means you got speed) and the down distance should be a valuable training tool looking ahead to states.

The 800m also has the aforementioned Nick Mahon of Wilson, Ahmere Ponzo of Penn Wood and Colin Wills. Ponzo has been strong this year indoors and will look to duplicate a Cristian Hunter type season (1:55ish) as a 4/8 guy who can contribute to a top school in both events. That PW 4x4 at indoor nationals was sick and that training group brings out the best in everyone.

Keep an eye on Joe MaGuire in the mile, especially if his team doesn't run an A squad in the DM. 

The 32 at this meet tends to produce some top marks and some excellent competition. The headliners in that one are Jack DiCintio of Wyomissing and Andrew Hanna of CR South. The big story here will likely be DiCintio's return to the track after a stellar XC season that included an impressive silver at states in AA. With Shinn as a training partner, the junior has strong help in the speed department to couple with his excellent strength. It doesn't look like anyone is beating Hockenbury from the current crop of AA kids (with the exception of a healthy Molino), but DiCintio is a big time sleeper to challenge if he picks up where he left off in the fall. This is the first step towards that goal.

But Andrew Hanna has his own tale to tell as he looks to confirm he is a top tier 2 miler after multiple strong 3ks in the winter including a PR under 9 minutes. For those of you who don't know, D1 is loaded again this year and the 32 is always a grueling SQS to land. I don't expect CR South to be a legit 4x8 contender this outdoors (although if they decided to try they would have a good team) which means Hanna gets his chance to focus on the 32 after making team sacrifices indoors in favor of the medley. 

The sleeper here is Methacton's Jeff Kirshenbaum. He closed out his indoor season impressively, including a clutch run at Meet of Champs and has momentum building in the right direction. He had some brilliant races in the fall as well, showing he has great potential if things are clicking.