Mile

Caleb Gatchell

Next up is the mile. The marquee event, in my opinion, and one where we will finally get to see Soratos and Cheserek go head to head. They are clearly the top two runners in this field, the question is, in what order. I think at NCAA’s experience is a huge edge, and Soratos has never been here before. For that reason, I have to go with Cheserek. He knows what it takes to win at this stage, and I just can’t shake the feeling that Soratos is going to make a mistake. That’s not the only way Ches would beat him, but it would certainly help things along. In 3rd I think we will see Anthony Rotich, the defending champion. He knows what it takes at this level, and he has raced well for the most part this year. In 4th I’m going with Julian Oakley. He is one of the few guys not doubling back from the DMR, and I think that will give him a little bit of an edge. Finally, in 5th, I have Johnny Gregorek. He’s been a big part of that DMR all year, running very well, and I really liked what I saw out of him at Millrose. I think he’ll be ready to go.
1: Edward Cheserek
2: Christian Soratos
3: Anthony Rotich
4: Julian Oakley
5: Johnny Gregorek

Garrett Zatlin Mile

5. Patrick Joseph (Virginia Tech)-4:00.25

4. Brannon Kidder (Penn State)-4:00.08

3. Anthony Rotich (UTEP)- 3:59.97

2. Christian Soratos (Montana State)- 3:59.11

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)-3:58.39

Explanation: As I’m sure many of you know, I’m a big Soratos fan. I love the idea that enough hard work can turn you from average to a superstar. He’s the epitome of the saying “hard work pays off”. However, there are times when raw talent can be molded into something unstoppable and that is exactly what we have with Edward Cheserek. In a race that will most likely be tactical, Cheserek’s kick is lethal and can burn anyone in the field. Soratos has developed excellent speed and I see him being able to at least sustain second place. It would be criminal not to include the defending champion considering his experience in the big races. Rotich will grab third. Kidder has shown me some outstanding races where he has mixed it up with big names and has an unbelievable kick. He’ll get fourth. Fifth place is most likely my bias speaking, but Joseph is one of best tactical racers in the NCAA today and in a race like this, that’s a huge advantage. He just sneaks onto my list.

Alex Fox

1) Edward Cheserek

2) Anthony Rotich

3) Chad Noelle

4) Johnny Gregorek

5) Christian Soratos

How cliché of me, picking Ches to win. There’s a reason people don’t pick against though: he wins. I don’t expect him to be in the DMR, so this is his race to lose; he’s the most talented distance runner in the NCAA. Going with Rotich is sort of a no-brainer as well for second. He showed his stuff winning this race last year. If anyone but Ches was in this field, I’d have Rotich. As for Noelle, yes he’s another New Yorker, but this isn’t just a pride pick for me. I watched him run a smooth 3:56 split in the DMR early in the season, and if this comes down to a final 400 kick, Noelle proved his speed at Mt. SAC last year (http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251447-Mt-SAC-Relays-2014/video/743625-Mens-1500-H01-Invite-Chad-Noelle-FTW#.VQCsgfnF-Ag). I have Gregorek in fourth simply because it had to be someone from Oregon given their seemingly never ending supply of sub 4 milers. I don’t have a ton of faith in Christian Soratos, but 3:55 is 3:55. Its (just) good enough to get into my top five.

etrain:
It's time to put your altitude conversion where your mouth is. Soratos has showed up in the most important meet of the year at Sea Level and won in 3:55. He's for real. Plus altitude conversion star Anthony Rotich won the NCAA title last year despite questions about his actual miler ability. But keep in mind last year's championships were actually held at altitude. So let's not jump to any conclusions about these kids.

I'm not in on Soratos. Sorry I can't do it. Yes, 3:55 is sick and there's no floating the altitude conversion card, but I will float the, the NCAA champion is necessarily the best time trial-er card. Tactics and experience are important in what will likely be a tactical two day affair that includes a difficult prelim and the always exciting final.

Similarly to the altitude jargon that will likely be thrown around on here, the Lawi Lalang-Ed Cheserek comparisons will also likely be center stage. Lawi tried to triple and ended up winning 0 titles and getting a pair of silvers, Ches could be in line for a similar fate this weekend. But Ches is not Lawi and Arkansas is not at Altitude. That makes a huge difference. Ches has the wheels to win a kickers race or the strength to win an all out brawl. And he's had the experience of winning top notch races.

But he hasn't won top notch miles. Can he navigate through traffic in a tricky mile? I'm not completely certain that the new animal will be manageable for the King. That being said "experience" is probably not something that Ed puts a lot of stock into considering, you know, he won 4 NCAA titles as a Freshman. Ches will be joined by teammates Gregorek and Winn who are solid runners and at least one will likely be fresh for the mile with no DMR in their legs (the other is probably pulling double duty with the 1200).

This thing is going to be a brawl from the heats to the final with a ton of guys doubling up, a ton of guys within a second of one another and a ton of guys running with something to prove. Honestly, any of the 16 men in this field could be in my top 5 and any of them could be on the outside looking in on this final. It's a lot like this prediction contest ... well the race for second in this prediction contest anyway.

Here's my top 5:
1. Ed Cheserek 3:59.88
2. Anthony Rotich 4:00.10
3. Sam Penzensadler 4:00.55
4. Izaic Yorks 4:00.87
5. Cristian Soratos 4:01.65