UPDATE: I'll be updating this post throughout the week to let you know what has been posted and what is still to come.
Welcome to state championship week on the blog! Here’s a breakdown of everything that will be coming your way this week to help celebrate the sport’s biggest day.
Welcome to state championship week on the blog! Here’s a breakdown of everything that will be coming your way this week to help celebrate the sport’s biggest day.
Top 50 Individual Predictions
State Championship Fantasy Draft
Fan Question Night – This Tuesday night, I
will be having a special discussion hour where the readers can ask me any
questions you have and I will answer. I’m hoping to do this live on the google
hangouts stream if we can work out some of our technical difficulties, but if
not I will answer the questions live through the comment section on the blog.
You can ask questions through email, twitter, or the comment section. If this
ends up being a worthwhile idea, I will offer another one on Friday night
just before the championships when all the posts are finished.
State Championships – On Saturday, it’s race
day. That’s when all the talking finishes and the running starts. We get to
find out how wrong I am about things! I’m planning to attend the meet live and in
person for the second straight year. I’ll probably be wearing something with
Oregon colors because I don’t own any other type of clothes.
Sign me up.
ReplyDeleteThere's not much drama this year, CRN and Affolder are both a lock.
ReplyDeleteNoah ISN'T Affolder, if you know what I mean *winks*
ReplyDeleteYes he is. His dad is an affolder, thus by law of surname giving him the name Affolder.
DeleteThanks for your efforts. We enjoy your analysis of PA high school cross country. Appreciate your shout-outs for Hampton in D7. My fault as a coach not having them ready this year.
ReplyDelete-D. Longwell
A great coach admits when he could have done better. Bravo! Our D7 coach has a tremendous ego and looks for any excuse other than himself or his training/recovery regimen when athletes don't succeed. Good luck next year.
Deleteis josh hoey out for states?
ReplyDeleteMaybe he's had a nagging injury because he's been well behind last years times all season and had basically been a non-factor. He did win Chesmonts but the chesmont individual champion never goes on to win states.
DeleteIn an interview (after chesmonts maybe?) on penntrack he said he's focusing more on the indoor and outdoor seasons.
DeleteHe is missing from Etrain's top 50 predictions.
DeleteNo? Josh Hoey is 31st on Etrain's top 50 predictions.
Delete31st??? Come on. He was just coasting at distrcts knowing that the rest of his team would not make it. Not having him top 10, just makes you look silly. Etrain you should know better.
Delete^ That's right, Hoey and his former Dwest teammates have been coasting all along, saving everything for States. We all know it. Look for Hoey to upset Affoholder and Dwest to win with 60 points to CRN's 90.
DeleteJosh is not on the PIAA qualifier list.
DeleteThe only thing more dangerous than questioning RJJL is questioning Etrain.
Deletehttp://www.piaa.org/assets/web/documents/2016_XC_3AB_Qualifiers.pdf
DeleteHere is the qualifier list. Hoey isn't entered for some reason...Jarrett literally predicted that Hoey wouldn't medal and in this situation he's going to be 100% right.
cinder, just wondering the information (other than his place at districts) that you make the assumption that josh hoey was "coasting at districts". i personally was not at the race, but watching the race video afterwards he looks extremely pressed right before two miles and even worse at the finish line.
DeleteUnless Hoey is injured or having another health issue, which may be possible, he is still the same kid that ran well at Carlisle. Yes he's lost his training partners from last year, but he still has the same coach. I could be wrong but it is a misread by Etrain. We will see.
DeleteHe's definitely not on the entry list and there are 25 D1 individuals entered. They must have decided that xc wasn't going well and decided to cut their losses. He hasn't looked good all year. Hopefully, he gets it back for track. Maybe, there was just too many changes. You have to remember that he's still a 16 year old kid.
DeleteReplaced by : 1245 Aqeel Baccus 4 Bensalem (1)
DeleteThat's disappointing if true. Josh is such a talented runner, it's a shame to see one of Pa's top 5 runners not run at state. It doesn't seem like an injury as his interview after Chesmonts sort sounded like he was mentally checked out of xc.
DeleteI thought Hoey would win Districts since he had won Chesmonts a couple of days after racing at Manhattan, beating a talented Hontz from Rustin and a rising Maxwell from Kennett (who went 15:47 at Lehigh). A 4:11 miler with a Soph year 15:21 PR on Lehigh and running well at Chesmonts seemed like a good pick at the time. With hindsight his Chesmont interview saying he’s focusing on Indoor/Outdoor should have been the obvious heads up that maybe XC isn’t where his best races would be this year. (I also seriously underestimated Rusty Kujdych, who had a 15:20 win going away which would have been difficult to beat for anyone in PA not named Noah Affolder). But whatever Hoey’s plans are he gets credit for running solid at Lehigh and leading Shanahan to a pretty surprising 12th place finish and for revealing he was bailing on states early enough for Aqeel Bacchus to take his spot.
Delete- RJJL
Agreed. Glad he notified the right people early enough so that someone could take his place.
DeleteThat's a pretty sweet break for a senior like Bacchus to get in and very good of Hoey to let it be known early enough that he wasn't running.
DeleteHoey changed schools.............Bishop Shanahan. Name on jersey of Ches Mont winner..........
DeleteI'll join the fantasy league, my team name will be MightyMort
ReplyDeleteTrain's individual picks give away a huge CRN victory prediction.
ReplyDeleteWe gotta get some discussion going. States is tomorrow guys! Here’s my AAA predictions:
ReplyDeleteIndividuals
1. N. Affolder
2. Henderson
3. Provenzo
4. James
5. S. Affolder
6. Campbell
7. Kujdych
8. McMenamin
9. Lefever
10. Smucker
11. Beveridge
12. Conway
13. Cupp
14. Slavin
15. Feffer
16. Paul
17. Shea
18. Tomasko
19. Conboy
20. Addison
21. Kole
22. Cassel
23. D’Aquila
24. Owori
25. Kennedy
Teams
1. Carlisle
2. CRN
3. DTW
4. LaSalle
5. O’Hara
6. Lower Dauphin
7. CBW
8. NA
9. Seneca Valley
10. Mechanicsburg
Good list.Will be fun to compare it against Etrain.
DeleteThis is a really weird states AAA to try to predict. I feel pretty good about picking the winners, Afforder and CRN, but they’re not tough choices. It seems like either would have to have a bad day and someone else also have a great day for them to not finish on top. After the 1st pick, it’s a total guess.
ReplyDeleteAny team with a 3, 4 or 5 who has a break out race and picks up 20 places could probably move up 3 or even 4 in the team standings. Every time I look at it I change something. It’s past the time to just go with that guess so here it is very late:
1) CRN
2) LaSalle
3) Carlisle
4) O’Hara
5) Seneca Valley
6) DTW
7) CBW
8) NA
9) LM
10) Mechanicsburg
It seems like the individual race is for 2nd, which is a testament to how good N Affolder is right now. I hate saying it but it might be best for the others to just kind of ignore him or they risk running his race which gives a better chance of them ending up with bad states race than of becoming state champion.
1) N Affolder
2) Henderson
3) Kujdych
4) James
5) Lefever
-RJJL
DTW 6th? Really? WCH not in your top 10? This is a fake.
DeleteOn the team only scoring, Carlisle will have 3 in the top 10. That's pretty much unbeatable.
DeleteAnyone else bring their Xbox on the road to stay loose the night before the big race?
ReplyDeleteLaSalle
ReplyDeleteCRN
OH
Carlisle
NA
SV
Dwest
CBW
Mech
LM
The teams that ran Foundation have a big advantage this year since the course is new.
1) CRN
ReplyDelete2) Carlisle
3) La Salle
4) O’Hara
5) DTW
6) CBW
7) Lower Dauphin
8) Seneca Valley
9) North Allegheney
10) Mechanicsburg
1) CR North -- 89 Points
ReplyDelete2) Carlisle -- 111 Points
3) O'Hara -- 129 Points
4) LaSalle -- 139 Points
5) DT West -- 144 Points
6) LD -- 189 Points
7) CB West -- 201 Points
8) SV -- 204 Points
9) NA -- 210 Points
10) Parkland -- 211 Points
feeling like my point spread here is a bit too low with some of these lower squads, but honestly some really amazing talent out there this year.
best to all!
ForrestCRN
WOW
ReplyDeleteall three divisions of the women's team races were CRAZY today! wish i had been there to see everything, but major ups to www.runhigh.com for showing the results for the teams at each mile this season.
in AAA Oakland Catholic went out hard and was leading by 17 points after the first mile. O'Hara fought back and cut OC's lead to 4 points by two miles! Then over the final 1.1 miles O'Hara looked fantastic by moving up very hard with their 2-4 runners to win with 107 points compared to Oakland Catholics 146! What second half!!
We can notice a very similar trend in the women's AA race with Quaker Valley going out hard (100 points) and leading the field by 45 points after the first mile. Central Cambria was in second (145), Villa Marie (148) was in third, 4th was Danville (151), and 5th was Scranton Prep (154)!! This will be very similar to the Mens AAA race later i would guess!! Danville made a big surge from the first to the second mile taking the lead with 102 points. Villa Marie followed suit in 104 and Quaker Valley fell to third in 107, but still a tight race!! (Scranton Prep was 4th at this point in 137). Danville and Quaker Valley's moves, however, proved costly as they fell back, while Villa Marie retained their low point score between the second mile and the finish. Villa Marie took the title in 107 to Quaker Valley's 133 and Danville's 139.
And in A women we saw an amazingly tight battle with the race staying just one point difference between the first and third mile and ending in a tie! St. Joes Catholic just outlasted Elk Lake who moved from 4th after the first mile to one point away after the second mile. Overall just 32 points kept apart the top 5 teams in this division, and I think we can expect a very, very similar result from the boys AAA race :)
ha ha ha ha
ReplyDelete-WCH
Recaps:
ReplyDeleteA:
Noah Curtin must know a shortcut on the course that no on else knows. No matter how he's running prior to states, he just turns it on at Hershey. Props to him. I feel like seeing how fast the race went out, the results were otherwise pretty predictable. Walsh has dictated the pace of all his races this season, and a very fast pace for an A race is something that definitely threw him off his game. A fast pace for guys like Myers (mid 1:50's, 2nd place) and Thrush (48 speed, 4th) clearly benefitted the guys with more natural speed who wouldn't blow up after that. The thing that kills me here is Wortman of ECC. He went out 18 seconds off the leaders at the mile! He still climbed his way back up, seconds off the top 5.
AA:
Bumgarner has to be considering a postseason after this one. Looked extremely comfortable in beating one of the strongest AA names in Skolnekovich. Was happy to see Davis (the clear returning favorite) break into the top 3 after a rather horrid districts race. Congrats to Dallas, I really didn't think they'd come out and win today.
AAA:
I was so horribly bored by this race. In my opinion, the only notable or even exciting thing is that CRN now has a legitimate shot at NXN as a team if they so choose. Crazy to think that if S. Affolder is leaving, Noah Beveridge is the state's top returner for next year. Other than that, meh. Affolder wins over Henderson, Lasalle doesn't have the front running to get the job done, and WCH finds a way to crack into the top 10. Unfortunately, a very uneventful state championship in my eyes. Congrats to all. Looking forward to the postseason and indoors following that.
It's true, there really weren't any huge surprises. What little drama there was is more surrounded around runners/teams having a bad race than of any team or individual really stepping up big time.
DeleteY'all slept on SC tho
Delete^ I didn't even know SC was in the field. Yes, SC and WCH were the overachievers in the race.
DeleteIt's 4x8 season
Delete-SC
if you're so horribly bored with the AAA race then go watch A races all year with slow times.
DeleteDMR/4x8 Relays this year are going to be really, really fun to watch. I can't wait to see Carlisle and CR North battle in a DM this season, but i think Carlisle will easily outlast them if they decide to go fresh. it will be an interesting battle for points. Will Noah do the Mile/3k Double and get the victory in both? How will Henderson fair in the 3k? Or will Noah do the mile/mile double by anchoring a DMR squad? How does Issac Kole fit into this team?
DeleteHow good will SC's 4x8 be?I think we'll see another low 7:50 indoors by this team. Nick Feffer looks great and they really stepped it up at the state meet. Major props to this whole squad for pulling this together after a devastating injury.
Tough day for La Salle, they were second at the mile and third at the 2 mile but their top guy dropped out around 2.5 and their number 2 guy lost nearly 40 spots in the last mile to finish fifth for them. Was expecting more from them, but what a race by CRN. Decisive win and proving they will have a really solid team next year as well, as they will be graduating only 2 from their top 7.
ReplyDeleteEven worse day for O'Hara and they took it easy at D12 to rest up for states. Peaking at states is so tough but CRN, NA and WCH seem to do it every year.
DeleteWhere was Evan Addison?
DeleteDropped out
DeleteHe went through the mile with Noah Affolder but ended up dropping out around 2.5
DeleteSomeone posting above warned about going with Affolder and there were a few who went after it but looking back maybe went out to fast. The guy is ranked #3 in US, he's just in a different league for most.
DeleteIt’s never too soon: CRN returns 5 of 7. Carlisle is said to lose the Affolders. Dwest loses everybody. Seneca Valley returns 6 of 7. LaSalle and NA lose 4. WCH returns 4 so look out.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the list of returners it seems to me that CR North will be quite similar to Carlisle this year. Three almost garenteed medalists (Campbell being the second returner, Earley 7th, and Koza 16th) with Ergott the 46th returner (similar spot to Jack Wisner this year) and the necessity of a 5th man to step up. It could be one of three rising juniors. CJ Haas, Matt Mullen, and Jake Boyd. We shall see how they progress, but I have a feeling one of them will be running low 17s on this course next year if not breaking 17. That being said DT West keeps Tyler Rollins who is the 24th returner and they've got a really, really strong JV squad. I think this teams pack is going to be very impressive and should be watched develop especially this spring. Seneca Valley is going to be awesome next year with two fantastic juniors running the team up front. We also see that LaSalle and NA lose 4, but both have strong JV squads and very, very good freshman (rising sophomores) who will be key players. And WC Henderson is going to be scary good with runners such as Calvin Push breaking out over the next year. Should be a dog fight in chasing CR North down for team title hopes next season, but for now I have my boys slated to repeat :)
DeleteThe big 3 questions with specific runners next year are:
Transfer? Jr. Sam Affolder (3rd in 2016 in 15:50) -- Carlisle?
DNS: Sr. Josh Hoey (3rd in 2015 in 15:49) -- Bishop Shannahan?
DNF: Sr. Evan Addison (D12 Champ) - LaSalle
Addison is almost a lock for a top 10 spot next year if he can progress as he has been and finish this race. No idea what will happen with Hoey over the next year, but he is going to be a big threat if he can get his XC chops back. And will Affolder transfer? it seems to me that they did not like the way training has been going this year at Carlisle based on interviews, and their father being in the military causes them to move often.
a very, very hype
ForrestCRN
p.s. you saw it here first: ryan campbell will win the state championship and make it to FL nationals next season.
What are your thoughts on the new Hershey course? Personally, I hate it. The steep downhills left me with an injured knee today.
ReplyDeleteThe downhill by the road is dangerous. No need for it.
DeleteThat course was possibly the most dangerous one I have ever seen. The new bridge, downhills, and all the other things that already made it dangerous.
DeleteSo i've been looking at the Manhattan results to try and get a helpful gauge on the other teams in the region that have raced against squads like DT West and Carlisle to figure out just how good CR North is on a regional stage. It seems that Isaac Kole did not have nearly as strong of a day at Manhattan as he did at Districts and States, and Matt Wisner has certainly improved by quite a lot. I think if we update the scores to reflect these improvements Carlisle scores about 233 points (i took off 10 from Kole and 40 from Wisner). CR North beat Carlisle by 42 points at states, which puts them at 191. To be clear, CBA (Christian Brothers Academy -- top team in the region) won this meet with a score of 202 points and they are currently ranked 4th in the nation (which seems a bit high in my opinion).
ReplyDeleteBased on the speed ratings of CR North at Districts and moving them to the Manhattan Invitational (which is 3 weeks difference of training we need to take into account), CR North finishes 17th, 20th, 21st, 25th, and 42nd to score 125 points. Frankly it seems as though CR North will stack up quite well against CBA (although I am wary of this reading). Danbury and Don Bosco Prep are also proven squads who placed 4th and 5th respectively at Manhattan in 249 and 254 points. Don Bosco Prep has also edged out Carlisle twice this year. Furthermore, CR North does NOT know the Nike Northeast Regional course. It is the first time they will be racing at this meet, which gives them a HUGE disadvantage against these teams mentioned above who race Nike Northeast every year. Right now i'd place CR North just barely 3rd behind Princeton High School from NJ who has also looked very good these past few weeks and placed 2nd at Manhattan with 213 points.
Also to note from CBA: at Shore Coaches last weekend they ran as a pack with a 9 second spread 1-5 racking in scores of 181, 179, 179, 178, 178 (and Ryan Campbell obtained a speed rating of 179 at districts). Basically CR North matches up just 5 or so seconds behind each CBA runner for the first 4 runners and then CBA will score 20 points or so on CR North from the 5th runner. I will post the speed ratings once they are released from www.tullyrunners.com from the PA state meet. But basically since the course is new it will be quite difficult for him to judge how to rank runners. This being said I think CR North's speed ratings from this weekend will be something like 182, 177, 176, 176, 168. Koza certainly raced better at districts than he did at states as did Tim Haas (who was quite far back at the 2 mile mark, well 13 seconds behind Earley!).
If the Affolders hadn't moved from NY, CRN wins with 66 points and by a margin of about 100. They're right in the mix with the great teams from WCH and Coatesville.
Deleteand DT West from last season! they won in 57 points don't forget :)
Delete--ForrestCRN
So TullyRunner speed ratings have come out and Ryan Campbell has been given quite the score. The team looks as follows:
Delete185, 176, 175, 175, 168, 158. I think what is key here is recognizing just how strong Campbell is getting in the post season and how consistent we have seen Keller, Haas, and Earley around 175. Koza like i stated earlier did not have as strong of a race at states, but if he can run between 168 and 170 this team has a really strong shot at making nationals.
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2016/Ratings_Nov05.htm#Pennsylvania
--ForrestCRN
Good luck to CRN. The North Penn teams of 2007 (led by Montijo, Hoagland, Miles) and 2008 (led by Miles, Bernitts, Quintrell) said it was difficult to peak for states and NXN with that much time in between. I hope CRN finds a way qualify. If they can run like they did in states, they have a great shot.
DeleteIts never too early to think about how disgustingly good Carlisle's DMR will be...
ReplyDeleteThey could take down O'Hara's indoor record and break 10:00
Deleteoh my god. . .
DeleteJust from last years PR's from outdoor according to milesplit:
Delete1200: (converted from Sam Affolder's 4:20 full mile) 3:11
400: Jared Griffie 53.5
800: Isaac Kole 1:59.66
1600: Noah Affolder 4:07.33
Total: 10:12.49
They've got a shot, it would be interesting to see where all of the O'Hara guys were at this point before they broke the record. I feel like after Kole's great XC season he will drop a bunch of time in the 800, plus Carlisle seems to know how to produce great 800 guys (See Zach Brehm and Matt Wisner). They will also have Jack Wisner, who I would assume is the brother of Matt Wisner who was less than a second behind Kole in outdoors in the 800, so he could crack the squad as well. I know nothing about their 400 guy, but him dropping some time would help, lots of DMR's have guys close to 50.XX, and while the 400 leg is the shortest, you can't underestimate it because a 1 second difference in time is a lot more distance than any of the other distances. I know Mid-D guys that could run 1:58-2:00 and split a 52 on a relay, so if need be they could drop their #2 800 guy down to the 400 if their 400 guy gets injured or isn't performing as well, which I hope doesn't happen and he goes out a crushes that 400 leg.
Sam takes 8 seconds off the 1200 alone. The 400 will drop 1.5 and Kole will drop 3. That crushes O'Hara's mark.
Delete