AA Top 10 Team Predictions

by Jarrett Felix

I think this might be the closest team race of the day when all is said and done. Three teams look poised to make a serious run at the title while a few other teams are lurking ready to pounce on an opening. Will Dallas retain their throne? Will York Suburban reclaim theirs? Or will the new team from Greensburg Salem make it the year of D7 in AA?

10. Lewisburg
This last spot was a toss up for me. I think there are a lot of teams who could end up grabbing this spot, but ultimately I decided to roll with Lewisburg. I think Anthony Bach and Nicholas Alico will provide a strong front running presence for this squad, but I also think that Jack Spaulding could have a big bounce back performance from districts and end up swinging the standings. This Lewisburg team has been waiting a while for the chance to compete at states and, now that the District sends two teams, they get their shot. I’m excited to see how they handle the bright lights.

9. Holy Cross
The District 2 squad put together a strong, complete team performance to snag the second and final state qualifying spot out of the always dangerous District 2. They placed three runners in the top 10 overall in the district and, although the 4-5 was a bit farther back, still had five runners in the top 30. That depth paid off against Berwick who, although they had a monster top 4, couldn’t match Holy Redeemer through 5. For those who have read me in the past, you know that I am a fan of the top 3 theory at the state meet. A great top 3 can carry you quickly up the standings and Holy Redeemer, on the right day, can have a great top 3. I’m looking forward to watch Hoda fight for the medals and seeing if either sophomore from this squad’s 2-3 punch has a clutch gene for the state meet. 

8. South Fayette
South Fayette has been a top 10 team in the state before and this year’s squad should basically be a super charged version of last year’s team. They have the two super front runners in Pfeil and Snodgrass who will help this team run 3 on 5 against their closest competition. Their pack has some solid state experience from last year and has been solid this year. If they can upgrade for solid to exceptional, look for South Fayette to jump a few teams, most notably their district rivals from Quaker Valley. Watch for Michael Cusick to potentially set the tone on race day for that pack behind the top 2. If he has a big day, so will this team.

7. Quaker Valley
One of the biggest surprises of district week for me was the impressive showing by Quaker Valley. Through 2 miles they were even with state title contenders Greensburg Salem and finished with five runners in the top 30 overall. They have the ultimate front runner in Zach Skolnekovich, who is the early individual title favorite. The only reason I’m hesitant about this team is because they came seemingly so far out of left field to grab this spot, I’m worried last weekend may have been their best effort. However, they have four seniors in the top five who want to leave their legacy at the school and a very talented freshman in Daniel Ford. I think their depth through five carries them by South Fayette and maybe up past Wyomissing, but I’m still uncertain if the pack is good enough to them into the top 5.

6. Wyomissing
I like the way this Wyomissing team has performed this season. They’ve got a lot of youth in the roster, particularly in the 3-6 spot where they are projected to have a pair of freshmen and a pair of sophomores. But the x-factor for this squad in recent weeks has been their senior Chip Schroder. He was 5^th at the District 3 Championships last week which means he could potentially be a medal threat this weekend. They already have Joe Cullen, who is running like a top 5 guy in the state. That gives them a great 1-2 punch. If freshman Ben Kuhn can scare the top 50, this team will have a very formidable front three. We will see how the sophomores handle the bright lights, potentially rounding out the scoring five.

5. Holy Ghost Prep

District One’s record in AA since its inception is as follows: 1^st in 2012, 2^nd in 2013, 6^th in 2014, 3^rd in 2015. So basically, pretty good. I think HG Prep continues that trend come state time with a top 6 finish. They’ve got a good chance at top 4, maybe even top 3 if they can seize on another team’s off day. They were 4^th at Foundation, they ran away with the district title either and they have to be excited about finally getting the chance to show their stuff as a team in Hershey. They’ve got an excellent front runner in Callahan Lennon and a team of studs hanging around at 2-5 ready to make noise.

What needs to happen for this team to move up is similar to what Bishop Shanahan showed us last year from the same district. Shanahan didn’t have any big time front runners, but they had a tight group of 4 that packed themselves together in the 40 to 60 range. HG Prep could potentially put something like that together, but it would be with their 2-5 runners instead of their 1-4. Considering that pack would be behind a medal contender in Callahan Lennon, that would be a dangerous team in the overall standings.

4. Harbor Creek

In each classification I have that one team who I think, if everything goes right, they could pull off one of the craziest upsets we’ve ever seen. My team in AAA is Mechanicsburg and my team is A is probably Montrose (although they might not be big underdogs so much as Winchester Thurston is huge favorites). In AA, it’s Harbor Creek. I think this top 3 has a chance to grapple with the best of them. They are young with two sophomores and junior projected to wave the flag, but we just saw two sophomores and a junior make up a top 3 that won states last year. Their #4 runner, Jared Szklenski, is the key here. He was 63^rd at states last year, which is very solid, but for HC to pull off the potential upset for the title, he has to be easily the best #4 runner in the entire field (last year the best #4 in the field was 57^th so very doable, next best was 61^st though). From there, they will need a strong day out of the #5 spot, that perhaps isn’t in the cards, but they have some upside guys who could make things interesting.

I couldn’t pick these guys for the victory, even though I think they are a great team. But there’s nothing to hang your head about if you end up finishing 4^th in the state or in a battle for the top 3. I see these guys as a top 5 team with some potential to swing either way depending on how things play out at the #5 spot and if their two sophomore leaders have any state jitters (last year they had a little bit of that I’d say, but they were just freshmen).

3. Greensburg Salem

I think a lot of the talk coming into this meet will be about York Suburban and Dallas. That’s fair. I’m going to do that for the last six paragraphs of this post. But Greensburg Salem has made a strong case for themselves in the state championship conversation. It started a year ago when they survived the loaded AA WPIAL team race and advanced to states. Here, we noticed their top two freshmen, Mark Brown and Cameron Binda, who both finished in the top 50 at states at such a young age.

But really, the curtains on the championship window weren’t pulled back until Dylan Binda joined the team and really started to improve. He’s running as the team’s #4 this year behind Brown, Cameron and senior Frankie King (who is having a great year in his own right) and has helped transform the depth of this team. Greensburg Salem was second at foundation, just four points back of York Suburban and eight points ahead of Dallas. And guess what? They’ve only improved since then, especially Binda.

On the flip side, the other teams have improved as well. GS had the weakest 4-5 punch of the bunch at Foundation and it’s very possible that states, with a more talented overall field, could do some work to expose that flaw. But all the same, I think Greensburg Salem has a really good chance to pull the upset. I literally came within 30 seconds of flipping this whole post around and moving them to 1^st place. I’ll probably regret not doing that.

The keys for them are as follows. They have the best top 3 of the bunch on paper (potentially by a lot if all three of their guys are on). This team will definitely need to take advantage of that. Then the 4-5 guys just need to hold serve. Hang as close as they can to the scorers from their rivals and lean on the guys above them to do their thing.

2. York Suburban

Last year, a super young Dallas team surprised York Suburban for the team title by just 8 points. They were the team of the future, returning their entire top five which consisted of two sophomores and two freshmen. The next two state titles looked like they were theirs now that they had pulled off this upset. But York Suburban did not go quietly. They returned a young squad of their own which, like Dallas, featured four freshmen/sophomores. And that young team is now ready to challenge for not just this year’s state crown, but next year’s as well. We are perhaps seeing the middle season of a Warriors-Cavs esque duel for state supremacy.

Last year, it was tight at almost every spot along the way. Through three runners, Dallas had a 6 point advantage. The 4 and 5 runners were separated by just 2 points in aggregate. York Suburban actually had a slightly faster average time than Dallas thanks to their front runner Donavan Mears. I expect things to be equally close this year. If you look at it straight on #1 vs. #1, #2 vs. #2, etc., that best of five series will probably decide things (seems obvious, but it’s not always the case if a team has either a significant front running advantage or weaker #5).

York Suburban won foundation this year. They looked great at districts. They have two top notch front runners. That’s a key as York Suburban, despite their excellent seasons recently, has yet to get two guys on the medal stand in the same year. I think the key is going to be who steps up at #3. They can compete well out front and they definitely don’t lack depth, but will someone step up to close the 2-3 gap they had at districts. If they do that, I can’t imagine they leave with silvers again.

1. Dallas

Ultimately, I see this race coming right down to the wire yet again. On paper, Dallas hasn’t looked as strong as York Suburban in my personal opinion. Right now, I’m probably most worried about where their #2 runner is going to be. I know they have the depth and I know they have that clutch factor that helped a team of mostly sophomores come up huge at states a year ago. But last year they had two top 30 guys, the second of which was ahead of YS’s #2. This time around, I’m not sure Dallas can get two across before Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudensky, who looked great at districts. But I really like their pack and their depth and the fact that he exceeded my expectations last year.

A couple x-factors in this one for Dallas. First, you have Josh Wyandt who was one of the team’s top runners most of the season, but slipped a bit at districts. If he returns to form, that’s a huge lift for this pack. Then you have Jason Culp. He’s the lone senior at the front of this group and had a big day last year to bolster the team’s top 3. If he can better his state finish from last year, that already puts him around that top 30 overall spot I’m looking for. And then Adam Borton. He was the team’s #2 last year that came up huge with a top 30 finish. Could he potentially have his breakthrough back on the Hershey hills?

They have a lot of weapons and they will need all of them to be ready to roll if they are going to hang on against York Suburban and Greensburg Salem.