This championship has a chance to be very wide open. Tristan Forsythe won the Foundation Invite earlier this season, but his teammate Ben Littman ended up winning the district championship at Coopers this past week. Littman has looked phenomenal in recent weeks and has proven himself a clutch runner. But Forsythe could still come back and grab gold this weekend considering his speed and his knowledge of arguably the state title favorite and his strategies.
District 10 champion Connor Walsh also made a strong case for the state title this past weekend. He dominated what has historically been a strong district that included two other top 10 finishers from last year’s state meet. Walsh was 4th last year, but seems hungry for the title this time around. Does he have the finishing burst to win the title? Does he have the strength to take things early and run away from the field? That’s the question he will need to answer on race day.
Speaking of finishing bursts, Ryan Thrush of Brookville continues to hang around as a sleeper pick. The District 9 champ beat a slew of top names including Cranberry’s returning state medalist and Elk County Catholic’s proven star Zach Wortman. He also has 48 second 400 meter speed! That makes him an x-factor in this race to say the least. He was 3rd at Foundation behind Forsythe and Littman.
The defending champion, Griffin Mackey, has slipped by under the radar most of this season. He hasn’t raced much, but he came back just in time to help his team qualify for states. He’s got a little bit of Ryan Gil potential. Gil was the 2010 state champ who overcame a serious foot injury to, first, run at districts and finish 4th, and then surprise everybody en route to the state championship. Mackey was 4th at his district meet behind three guys from the same team (just like Gil ironically) so maybe he will stun everyone at states and win the title.
Personally, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from District 4 champ Casey Ellis of Northeast Bradford. He seems like a sleeper. And what will the Montrose guys out of District 2 do? Zack Mead won their district title and the Montrose boys swept the top 3 spots overall. They are a sleeper team, especially if they post three top 30 finishes.
From the sophomore class, Ethan Knoebel of Southern Columbia has shown a lot of potential to sneak into the medals. He ran well at the Foundation Invite and held his own against the NEB duo at districts. The Smethport duo of Darian Gregory and Christian Tanner will also contend for a top spot in their class. Jack Miller of Jenkintown, who has the extra bonus of having qualified with his team, might be the best bet for top soph when all is said and done.
I really want to see who ends up the top guy from District 3. Ian Gabig was bested at districts, but has championship pedigree from his runs last year. Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin came out of nowhere to win the district title at Big Spring and looked amazing. He may not know just how good he is which could be a big advantage (or, I suppose, a big weakness).
Keep an eye on the District 11, District 5, District 6 and District 12 guys. I’m interested to see if anyone from those districts sneaks into the medals. It would be stunning for all three districts to be shut out of the medals, but as of now I’ve got only District 6 even having top 50 finishers. However, Colwell and Cunkleman both have great medal shots. Don’t sleep on Cunkleman as a medal contender, trying to rebound from a lower finish at districts than he likely had hoped.
If anyone from D12 sneaks into the medals, it would be 800m specialist Kamil Jihad from Neumann-Goretti. Last year while spending the fall at a District 1 school, he ran 17-flat on Lehigh. He's run 17:34 at Belmont this year and has been dropping time continuously. Based on recent State meet times and factoring in a faster course, it'll take somewhere just below 17 to medal. Daniel Bici, Masterman's #1 isn't there yet but Jihad just might be.
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