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AA
I think the AA state championship race will be the closest finish of the three and produce the first drama we have seen in this class since Vinny Todaro won the title in 2012. Now Zach Skolnekovich will be the favorite. He has won three straight district titles, was second at his last two state championships and defeated arguably his best competition last weekend in Ben Bumgarner.
But I need to pick an upset in one of these three classifications. And just like last year, I’ve opted to pick against the AA title favorite. I think Bumgarner is going to pull this one out. I think he runs the Hershey course better than he runs Coopers and that might be enough to help turn the tables on Skolnekovich. I also think that with Isaac Davis in the field, things could get out a little faster than Coopers and help keep the pressure on Zach early. The thing is, Zach has a great kick so he will be dangerous coming off that final hill. That’s what makes it so hard to pick against him.
You may have heard me mention Isaac Davis like 30 seconds ago? Well Davis won the Foundation Invite by setting a fast early pace. Davis struggled at the end of the District 4 championships so hopefully he’s healthy and ready to go after a second straight top 10 finish. His decision to either push the pace or sit in could dictate much of what happens the rest of the way.
I’m a big fan of Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock. He ended up winning that District 4 title and seems to be ascending at the right time. Also have to like the potential of District 2 champ David Haines. He was well under 16 at Paul Short and watched his teammate Matt Kravitz win a state title last spring. Maybe he learned a thing or two about upsets. Remember District 2 has won the last three individual titles in AA and won the A title in 2012.
Interesting team title implications for the medalists here, probably more so than any of the other three races. There seems to be a large concentration of front running talent in medal contention. You have Jack Zardecki of Dallas, York Suburban’s pack which includes Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudensky, and Greensburg Salem’s trio of Mark Brown, Frankie King and Cameron Binda. Throw in my sleeper picks from Harbor Creek (Ryan Stravaggi, Aiden Weber and Christian Babo) and you have a fun puzzle to piece together.
Considering last year was one of the best ever freshman groups in the state, we should have our fair share of sophomore medalists this year. The question is, which guys are ready to deliver under pressure? I’ve got 7 sophomores right around my top 30 overall finishers as things currently stand. That includes a ton of sophomores right in the thick of that state championship picture.
Keep an eye out for Somerset’s duo of Dominic Mazzierello and Cejay Walker. The pair has been pretty dominant against local competition and could be serious medal threats this season. We saw District 5 runners excel in this classification before, most notably Will Kachman of Bedford.
Patrick Stevens of Meadville is my early pick for top freshman. We’ve seen freshman medalists each of the last two seasons so we will see if Stevens can keep that streak alive or if another frosh will step up and steal the spot. Another one of those freshman to watch is District 6 champion Garrett Baublitz of Juniata who came out of nowhere to win that district’s championship.
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