A Top 10 Team Predictions

1.      Winchester Thurston, 7

This could be a big year for a pair of 2014 state champions. York Suburban and Winchester Thurston will both be looking for their second title in three years in Hershey. But while YS will likely be locked in a tight battle for gold, Winchester Thurston is a big favorite heading into the state meet and has a chance to potentially post an historic mark.

At districts, WT took 1-2-3-6-11 overall. And that wasn’t in some joke of a district, that was in the A WPIAL which has had a ton of success in the A classification. At the state championships, with some of the top individuals removed from team scoring, Winchester Thurston has a chance to dip into the 40s in team scoring. That would be legendary stuff. They also have a chance at 1-2 overall, 3 in the top 10 and 5 on the medal stand. Some of those are more likely than others, but this team has a ton of upside.

That being said, they do have two freshman in the line-up at 5-6 who will have pressure on them to deliver a low stick. They’ve got some guys who have been at least a little banged up in the past. You never know with this sport as one injury, fall or sickness can swing an entire race (look no further than the last two seasons in A). But this team is as close to a lock as I think you can get. Should be fun to see how their team stacks up in merged scoring.

2.      Elk County Catholic, 9

Despite the fact that I’ve penciled this guys in as a distant second, I actually think this team is really good. Zach Wortman has had a terrific season and he most likely be a great low stick that they didn’t have a year ago. They added two freshmen this year, Ben Hoffman and Isaac Wortman, who are running fantastic times. You have to be at least a little concerned about leaning too heavily on freshmen at states, but to be fair, these two have run very poised in some big meets already.

The key to Elk CC making the leap up toward Winchester Thurston (and away from their competition) will be not just these two talented freshmen, but also their juniors Logan Hoffman and Matt Dippold. These guys were both right around the top 50 individuals last year, but at least one of them needs to become a medal contender to keep pace with the 1-2 punches of Seneca, NE Bradford and Montrose. If both of them end up finishing in the medals, then things start to get very interesting. Even the gold medals would be in play.

3.      Montrose, 2

Montrose has been my sleeper team for a few weeks in A. I think their top three runners are very strong and they backed up that idea with a 1-2-3 finish at districts. They are deep as well, placing 7 runners in the top 12 of their district championships. They took care of business against a solid Elk Lake team, matched up fairly closely with Elk County Catholic at McQuaid and have that top 3 formula that I like in a front loaded meet like states.

However, this field is extra front loaded considering Winchester Thurston and Elk County Catholic by themselves could put 10 guys in the top 40-50 overall. That makes the low sticks very important for Montrose. As of now I think their 1-2 punch may actually be the worst out of my top 5 teams which is hard to imagine. I’d love to see all three of the Montrose boys mixing it up for medals. If they can do that, they will still have an up hill battle at the 4-5 spot against the top 2 schools, but they should open the door for a podium appearance of things click.

4.      Seneca, 10

Seneca has been impressive over the past four seasons. They won yet another district title this year and, after finishing 5^th last year, will look to better that performance. This team won the AA state championship in the 4x8 with a monster 7:50 proving that they can rise to the big stage. Their super talented twins, Phoenix and Donovan Myers, will lead the charge and could both challenge for a top 5-10 spot. Phoenix has been a bit less consistent than Donovan this year, but he came up huge at districts which should give him a ton of confidence looking forward.

The key for Seneca will be the 3-4-5. They’ve had a strong 1-2 punch in the past and not been able to ride them to the podium. So what makes this year different than all the years before them? The pressure will be on Adam Hanes, Robert Sepnowski and Jake Schneider (as well as Nick Post and Brock Smith) to make their presence felt on race day.

5.      Northeast Bradford, 4

Northeast Bradford has carved out a comfortable home in the top 5 of the state since the A classification was added and I don’t think they expect to evicted. They outlasted a very noble challenger, Southern Columbia, at the District 4 Championships and looked like a potential monster squad again. I’m in on Casey Ellis as a front runner and Garret Smith has a nice resume on the Hershey course which could make him a sleeper. Just like Seneca, it’s the 3-4-5 that will dictate their finish. The good news is that NEB has really done a nice job putting together a pack on this course. I’m watching Austin Senn-Bishop, an experienced senior on the roster, to see if he provides this team a lift. He was #5 at districts for this team.

6.      Cranberry, 9

I think there’s a bit of a drop off between the top five teams and the next five. The next five should be super tight. What gives Cranberry the edge in my mind is 1) they have two returning state medalists and 2) they have some strong experience on this course. They didn’t blow me away at Foundation this year, but they’ve consistently improved since then. Freshman at the 4-5 spot makes me a little worried, but three seniors at the top who have excelled on this stage could carry this team ahead of the herd.

7.      Riverview, 7

Riverview has quietly made states twice in a row out of the tricky WPIAL A qualifying race. This year’s team got here with just one senior. I like the extra experience they picked up at states a year ago and I think this team will run poised and confident at states. Ben Barnes is a great front runner who will be in the mix for his first state medal. But their overall performance likely hinges on senior Tyler Aber (the team’s #3 at districts) and whoever steps up to run as the #5 performer.

8.      Sewickley Academy, 7

The two time state runner-ups may not be at full strength like they were a year ago, but Sewickley Academy is still peaking at the right time (again). They get back the defending individual state champion in Griffin Mackey who, historically, has attacked this course and outperformed his district finish. They are still searching for that #2 runner who can keep pace with the other top programs, but a strong pack performance from 2-5 can sometimes be effective against teams who have one or two weak links. Sewickley has my respect for the way they have overcome obstacles this season just to get to this point. Let’s see if they have anything left for a special finish.

9.      Camp Hill, 3

Last year’s surprise state champs graduated their top 2 runners, but they returned a slew of guys with championship experience. Camp Hill should use a conservative start to their benefit and really attack the guys who went out too hard on this newly designed course with more hills in the front. They rolled to yet another district title and have a couple guys with clutch potential in Ian Gabig and Dan Shank. The x-factor will likely be Gus Lattore, the junior who ran as the team’s #5 at districts. He doesn’t have the same state championship experience at the others, but will be critical when tallying up the score. He will try and cut down on that 1 minute gap between himself and the team’s #4.

10.  Jenkintown, 1

The district one champions are my sleeper team for this weekend. They looked very strong this past weekend and also impressed me with their early season run at Foundation. I think their 1-2 punch has the chance to finish very well. The 3-4-5 will be key. Ethan Walters has made big improvements since his run at Foundation in the early season and has developed into a key piece as the team’s #4 at districts. He and Jamail Khan are the two seniors in the team’s projected top five.