AAA Top 10 Team Predictions

Every year there’s at least one spot in the top 10 decided by one point or less. Twice in the past five years, the AAA state title has been decided on tie breaker. It’s a matter of seconds. Less than seconds actually. Every place counts and most of them in the middle are decided by less than a second. The front runners will grab headlines all year, but on state championship Saturday, the real heroes are often a team’s #4 and #5 runners. That may never be truer than the 2016 championships.

Let’s just if the devil’s in the details, then I’m satanic.

10. CB West

CB West has been 6^th and 3^rd at states the past two years after finishing 3^rd and 2^nd at the district championships. This year, they were 3^rd and just behind DT West. Considering I have DT West at 4^th in my rankings, that could mean CB West is a big sleeper squad that is ascending at the right time. What I really like about CB West is that they have 7 guys who could all be in basically any spot in the scoring five and the team could be successful. They are kind of like North Allegheny East in that respect. Teagan Fortna had a huge race at districts and it’s possible that a different member of the top 5 will step up in his footsteps this weekend coming up (my money is on Michael Samson who was the team’s #6 at districts). 

The question for this team will be, like North Allegheny, where does their pack begin? They had no one in the top 30 or so at districts so I’m not sure what that means for states. I will say this, this team reminds me a bit of last year’s CR North squad. That team also had a tight pack with no real front runners of note at districts. Then they turned things around to finish 5^th in the state when that pack came to play in Hershey. I think the team battle is deeper this year than last year, but don’t count out CB West for a run at the top 5 or 6 teams for the third straight season.

9. Mechanicsburg

For anyone who has been following along with my posts year round, they now I’m a big of this Mechanicsburg team and their upside. It was pretty cool to see this program pull through and districts and qualify for the state championships. In many ways that was probably a mini-victory for this school, so who knows what kind of extra motivation they will have for states after such an emotion run at districts.

That being said, I think this team’s skill sets could translate very well to the state meet. They have two top notch front runners in Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko. They also have a poised senior in Andrew Sulon who is very consistent and provides a nice #3. The x-factors are the two sophomores who have been running 4-5 this season. Brendan Knepper has come on very strong in recent weeks and finished in the top 35 at districts. Michael Vigliano’s best race of the season was likely Carlisle and, if he runs like that, he could be up with Knepper and make Mechanicsburg one of the best in the field through five guys. Of course even if Vigliano isn’t quite in Carlisle form, if he can deliver a solid performance and hang on a little better of the final mile relative to districts, this team looks like a top 10 contender. 

Props to Shea Rounsville who has been consistently improving as the #6 runner on this squad and has closed the gap down to Vigliano for insurance purposes.

8. Lower Dauphin

I’m very interested to see the packs vs. front-runner match ups at states. One of the most interesting of those teams is Lower Dauphin. They haven’t been quite at the level of Carlisle in discussions this year, but they have followed a pretty similar format to achieve success. They have their own dynamic top three with medal hopefuls Kyler Shea, Jared Giannascoli and Colton Cassell, a strong young #4 in Mark Walsh and then a strong group of 5-6-7 guys who push each other through the line and round out the scoring. 

I’ve been concerned their top three may not be able to carry this team up the standings in the same way Carlisle’s does, but I’ve been proven wrong fairly consistently as of late. Shea, Giannascoli and Cassell are going to be in the mix with a ton of other important team front runners like Owori, Cupp, Tomasko, Inglis, Addison, Paul, and CRN’s pack so if this trio puts it together that could mean big swings in the team standings across the board it was anticipated to be a tight race.

But freshman Mark Walsh, who has been running phenomenally this year, could be the most critical piece. If he continues to excel the way he has the past two weeks and their #5 can keep in the mix with other packs, then this team is in business. As things stand, I see them putting together a similar performance to Mount Lebanon last year which puts them right in the mix for a top 6-9 spot.

7. North Allegheny

I feel like there’s not too much to say about these guys that hasn’t already been covered. They are a great program with some experienced, proven talents. They have a tight spread and a deep group which means they can survive an off day or two. But they will need to continue to find break out performers if they want to make a run at top five spot.

However, I feel like the narrative has evolved a little bit. I’ve seen some flashes of potential from TJ Robinson and Dan McGoey. Bobby Lutz seems to run this course pretty well and looked strong at Foundation. And they’ve got a little extra motivation after losing that WPIAL championship streak. The pack is starting to spread out a bit and I feel there’s a chance we could see one or two Tigers slip into the top 50 overall which would be big. 

At the state meet, a large, talented field, I think it will be really tricky to hold any spread near their single digit spreads they had prior to WPIALs so they will definitely need to have those breakout performers. 

6. O’Hara

O’Hara has had a long time to dwell on their close loss to LaSalle at the PCL Championships. That’s two in a row for LaSalle and I’m sure the O’Hara boys would love to get revenge at states. You can basically throw out the district results for this school as they were most likely holding back a bit to rest for the state meet after running hard just a few days earlier at their league championship. 

As you might have seen (spoiler alert), I’ve got LaSalle second and O’Hara sixth. The gap between these teams is probably not four spots. But I’m a bit more nervous about O’Hara than LaSalle because they don’t have quite the same level of depth. That being said, Billy Donovan has run in the top five on O’Hara’s last two state qualifying squads. He’s got experience on this stage and he’s been consistently improving. The guys to watch for me will really be Jack Becker and Patrick James. Becker is a bit less experienced on this stage, but has had a very nice season. Meanwhile, Patrick James has emerged as a stud front runner. However, James struggled a bit in his last trip to the state course. If we see the Patrick James we saw at Delcos, O’Hara maybe has three state medalists and is looking at, in all likelihood, a top 3 finish.

I’m looking forward to the smack talking from the O’Hara boys after they outperform my expectations in Hershey.

5. Seneca Valley

Don’t underestimate the WPIAL. Given recent history, they’ve been the second strongest district in the state. North Allegheny, the WPIAL champs each year for the past decade, have finished in the top 5 at states each of the last 10 years. However, we’ve also seen top 5 finishes from Mount Lebanon (2011), Baldwin (2010, 2009) and Seneca Valley (2007). This year’s WPIAL champs are not the Tigers of NA but instead the somethings of SV and so, logically, they (and the Tigers) should both be top 5 team threats this year.

I feel like this team has really been underrated all year. They have consistently improved each meet this season, they have two of the most talented sophomores in the entire state and, very quietly, they dropped their spread under 30 seconds at WPIALs toppling a legendary streak. This team is a little young and a little inexperienced but they’ve got experience on this course from last state meet and Foundation. 

In the cons column, you can argue that districts had to be a huge win for this team and their emotions were like very high for that race. Will they have the energy to mount another peak performance at states? If they can do that, they could have three guys in the top 40 with a sneaky good 4-5 punch. If not, and one piece has an off day, they haven’t shown quite the level of depth at 6-7 that some other teams have. 

I lean towards the pros with this team. It just seems like a resilient bunch ready to maybe pull out one more surprise. The x-factor here will be Trey Razanauskas. He really came through at WPIALs finishing 5^th after being his team’s #5 at Tri-States.

4. DT West

After finishing second at districts, DT West will look to bounce back at states. They are the defending champions and return three guys who ran on that state championship squad plus two more guys who ran on the 2014 4^th place team. In 2014, West was 5^th at districts and then finished 4^th at states. In 2015, they won both districts and states, but at the state meet they really put an exclamation point on the thing. The big difference from week to week for those squads were Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neill. Barton was 36^th at states his sophomore season and really elevated his game for the Hershey course. Then O’Neill delivered the nail in the coffin at states a year ago when he broke into the top 50 at states individually. Both these guys (particularly O’Neill who has the slightly larger sample size) seem to have a knack for the Hershey course. 

They will need both of them to be on top of their game while Bullock and Alansky stay relevant in the mix for the top 50. If O’Neill gets into the medals or Barton cracks the top 40 again, it would really boost West’s hopes for making the podium yet again, but if they run similar to the district championships, they fall into a scrum with the other strong pack squads like North Allegheny and CB West just trying to stay afloat in the top 10 conversation. I believe in their championship pedigree personally and that’s why I feel comfortable slotting them at least 4^th in the line-up.

A lot of seniors on this team with their last chance to leave a lasting legacy for this program to close out quite the three-year stretch. Maybe that gives the Whippets a little extra spark on race day.

3. Carlisle

Although it’s probably obvious enough that I don’t need to say it out loud, I will anyway. Carlisle’s front running is really good. And no team can realistically match it. But I’m nervous about their depth behind that front running. I’ll admit, if any team is going to knock off my pre-race favorite, CRN, then I think it’s going to be Carlisle. They have the most upside. But I think it all comes down to the #5 spot.

A couple things that aren’t as simple as “how does their #5 stack up?”. First, Carlisle’s front running obviously is a big numbers advantage. But it’s also a big mental advantage. Knowing that you have the guys out front giving you super low numbers means you don’t have to be a hero out there, you just need to go out and do your job. For some guys, that takes the pressure off and allows them to run freer and faster. That could really help this team pull off the victory.

Another wild card in piecing this whole thing together: Carlisle has yet to face LaSalle or CRN this season. They’ve matched up head to head with DT West all year and the two have been pretty close. So far, I’ve been of the opinion that DT West was ahead of LaSalle and North, but obviously districts changed my mind a bit. If I have turned around and undervalued DT West than it is going to reflect on Carlisle as well.

Strategy wise, Carlisle has, in the past at least, taken a very conservative approach to the first mile or so at states. This is probably smart: most people go out way too fast at states given the circumstances and the Herd can thunder by people the second half of the course. However, it’s a very tight course and you really have to be patient so you aren’t expending too much energy weaving in and out of the packs of people. That’s something interesting to watch with this team.

Finally, they’ve got three sophomores battling for those last couple scoring spots, including Jack Wisner who looked excellent at districts. If Jack can continue to progress and give them a quality #4 leg, then Carlisle will have a big lead through 4 runners that should help them clinch an appearance on the medal stand.

2. LaSalle

The concerns that I have with many of the other top programs regarding depth are not reflected in LaSalle. In the past, this team has been known for their incredible pack, but in order for them to take the next step, we knew they would need some front running. Well, I tentatively think Evan Addison and Stephen Paul can both provide that front running at states. Meanwhile, the pack is starting to really come together behind them. Brendan Price is a great #3 who has placed very well at this course both at the Foundation Invite and the state championships. As of now, LaSalle’s 4-5 (and maybe 6?) are running pretty close to Price. Quinn O’Neill has looked awesome in his last couple races. That could mean five guys in the top 60 overall with a couple medal threats.

It’s possible I’m overestimating this pack (I’ve overestimated LaSalle plenty in the past), but I just lean on depth in times like this when the state meet is so unpredictable. Plus, I really like how well they have run the Hershey course the past two seasons. They had a great day at states last year and ran fantastic at the Foundation Invitational. In a year with a small course change that some teams might underestimate, I like that LaSalle has the extra edge of knowing what they are up against (and knowing they have gone up against it well). 

They had two freshmen in their top 7 at districts which can sometimes be a cause for concern (freshman sometimes struggle at a big meet like this), but there’s not a ton of pressure on those guys to get big points considering the team’s depth. They can go out and run with no expectations and, if they do well, it’s a bonus. 

1. CR North

The general consensus after districts from people that I talked to (including myself) was “I knew CRN was good, but I didn’t know they were that good.” They absolutely rolled at districts with an all-time great performance. Four guys under 15:50 with a fifth at 16 flat is pretty darn remarkable and transports this from top 3 in the state to top 3 in the region. As has been mentioned, that performance was in line with 2013 Henderson and 2006 Coatesville and North’s performance came in a slower overall race (the winners in ’13 and ’06 pulled the race out fast with sub 15 performances).

North has proven they can peak well at the state meet and even “miler” types like James Zingarini have improved their finish between districts and states. Campbell, Haas, Keller, Early and Koza all raced at the state meet a year ago (Haas and Keller raced in 2014 as well) so they’ve got the experience. North has also developed a little extra insurance with their #6 Ehrgott who ran sub 16:20 at Lehigh. I think this team will deliver, perhaps not quite as dominant as last week, but will take care of business.

I’d say Early is probably the x-factor. If Early can continue to run right with Keller and Haas, that should be four top 40ish with a fifth in the picture to bring it home.