AAA XC Top 50 Preview

by Jarrett Felix

Check out the full top 50 list by clicking here

AAA

The AAA state title seems to have been reserved for Noah Affolder almost since his arrival in the state of Pennsylvania. The defending Footlocker Northeast Regional Champion defeated one of PA’s all-time greats in Jake Brophy last year under the New York flag indicating his potential. And he hasn’t disappointed. He has set PA records in every race he has run in 2016 including a 14:47 at Carlisle and a 15:17 at Big Spring.

Affolder’s biggest competition will likely come from his district rival Nate Henderson of JP McCaskey. Henderson has given Affolder his best dual, running his own legendary sub 15 time at Carlisle. He has an extra bit of experience on the state course that comes with back to back state medal winning performances as a sophomore and junior. But Henderson isn’t the only name that comes to mind. District One Champ Rusty Kujdych has been fairly dominant in his last three races, including districts. Mark Provenzo of Franklin Regional, the WPIAL Champ, has been equally dominant and is undefeated on the year against District One competition. We also have Ryan James of O’Hara, the PCL Champion and Foundation Invitational winner. Technically speaking, he sits as the course record holder as we enter the state championships on the slightly adjusted Hershey course.

I’m interested to see exactly how this race plays out. It sounds like Affolder won’t be playing any games at the front, but I’m interested to see if he goes after it from the gun. A year ago, everyone sort of defaulted to Jake Brophy and the pace was a bit more reserved through two miles opening up the door for a wild dash to the finish, especially for 4^th through 10^th place. If we end up in a similar circumstance this year, that opens the door for some kickers to sprint into the top group, including Noah’s brother Sam Affolder.

Sam and Zach Lefever of Ephrata are a pair of other top names that deserve some recognition. They were the 4^th and 3^rd finishers at districts. Lefever is a fantastic talent who earned his first state medal last spring with a clutch 3200 PR. He’s looking for his first XC state medal after an appendectomy caused him to miss his chance a year ago. Affolder is looking to join a rare club of top 10 state finishers as a sophomore. Last year, we saw Josh Hoey pull it off with a third place finish, the best sophomore finish since 2005. Could we see history two years in a row? I have this sneaky feeling that Noah and Sam could end up taking 1-2 in this race if things break right.

I’m super high on Ryan Campbell and Spencer Smucker. A pair of guys who know how to peak, come from great programs and have run the Hershey course well in the past. Smucker seems to be rounding into form at just the right time and gaining the confidence he needs to crack the top 10 for the first time. Ryan Campbell looked fantastic at districts, nearly breaking 15:30. His brother was 7^th at states as a junior (and so was former CRN stand out Ross Wilson) and Ryan has been better than him at this stage in his career on the trails.

Seth Slavin is an interesting name out of District 11. He’s been dominant against the District 11 competition lately, but how will he transition back to the state's top competition this year? He just missed a state medal last year and then crushed the regional championships.

I’m trying to make up for lost time with the WPIAL. I’ve got four of their guys in the medals this time around including Sam Owori of Seneca Valley at 25^th. For whatever reason, I feel like we are going to have more than one sophomore medalist (even if we had just one as recently as 2013 with Jake Brophy). Owori, based on his Foundation run and his team behind him, is my logical pick for this slot. His teammate Seth Ketler may be your next best bet. Owen Isham of State College, Jack Wisner of Carlisle and Mike Morris are the other sophomores I’ve got hovering outside the top 50. If Wisner or Isham can somehow crack that top 50, it’s huge for team standings.

Carlos Schultz of Conestoga leads the way for a talented freshman class that could end up outdoing the sophomores when all is said and done. That being said, it’s rare for a frosh to crack the top 50 let alone the medals. It’s just a big stage for those guys. Other freshman to watch include Dan McGoey, Zachary Leachman and Christian Fitch who are all from the WPIAL. McGoey qualified with a North Allegheny squad that will lean on him as a possible front runner in their tight knit pack. He runs hills well. Two of his best races were Hershey and Tri-States.

A couple other things I look for when making predictions are experience, who runs the course well and who is paired off. For example, Avery Lederer of Penncrest has not ever raced on the Hershey course as far as I know, however, Matt D’Aquila and James Abrahams both have contested it (D’Aquila has a pretty nice resume on this course as well). Since Lederer has raced with those guys all season, I think he could gut it out with that duo and they could push each other to a medal. Gabe Sullivan of Pleasant Valley, teammates with two time top 50 finisher Seth Slavin, is an intriguing sleeper pick for the same reason.

District 8’s Amadou Diallo has had an awesome year. District 8 hasn’t had a medalist in a while (Ean DiSilvio was the last one) and Diallo is the best guy we’ve seen since Ean. He finished just outside the top 50 last year, but this year he earned an individual district championship and has high team goals that will rely on a big finish from their #1.

Sleeper picks for the medal stand would be Jake O’Neill from DT West, Austin Maxwell from Kennett, Sam Morgan from Parkland, and Sean Brown from Roman Catholic.