Friday Feature: Paul Short Short Preview

by Jarrett Felix

I’ve spent a lot of time circulating the Lehigh course. I ran my last high school race there. I ran my last college race there. In fact, I’ve raced there on 17 different occasions in my career (and maybe there will be a couple more before all is said and done?). That doesn’t count the time trials, the workouts, the long runs or the warm up and cool down runs I did on that course over the years. Or the races that I’ve just come out and watched without actually racing.  So needless to say, the course holds a special place in my heart.

What hasn’t always cooperated at Paul Short has been the weather. Last year, conditions were rainy and muddy but in 2013, the course was hot as death and the high school races were actually cancelled (my Muhlenberg teammates and I suffered through the last race before the meet was officially suspended). But hopefully, after terrific conditions this past weekend, we can get reasonable weather for the 2016 edition of Paul Short and maybe have somebody make a run at a time in the low 15s.

The most likely candidates to do it come from a variety of backgrounds. Germantown Friends stand out Nick Dahl had a terrific opener at the George School Invite and ran well under 16 minutes when he raced this lay-out in 2014 as a sophomore. In the time since, he’s run a ton of fast 3200s and 1600s and established himself as one of PA’s fastest ever on the track. But his XC credentials will be on the line this weekend as he races the PIAA competition for what may be the only time (prior to regionals). He and his GFS teammates will have something to prove as the top projected independent school.

Also with something to prove for small schools will be the boys from Winchester Thurston. After rolling at the Foundation Invite last weekend, Tristan Forsythe, Ben Littman and Shaun Hay will try and prove their 1-2-4 finish was no fluke. The A school has a sneaky good team that was ranked at #12 in my rankings this past week. A win here against fellow top ranked schools Cumberland Valley, Hempfield and Mechanicsburg would be a huge upset, but it’s definitely in play. Tristan Forsythe should also contend for the individual crown in this race just as Griffin Mackey of Sewickley Academy (who looks to be scheduled for this meet as well) did a year ago.

A couple AAA studs also enter this race with something to prove. Ephrata and Springfield (Delco) aren’t often mentioned among the elite XC schools in the state, but their top dogs are beginning to turn heads. Zach Lefever and Liam Galligan, both medalists this past outdoors on the track, have been tearing up the trials in the early weeks. They are currently #6 and #8 on my Top 50 list, but will have a great chance to break into the top 5 with a victory. Galligan was the Briarwood Invitational two weeks ago while Lefever was second to Nate Henderson at Big Spring in his opener. Lefever ran sub 16 in this meet last year to finish as one of PA’s top runners in the field. Galligan raced in the white race a year ago. I think both guys have a legitimate shot at the 15:20s if the weather cooperates and my guess is one of these two takes home PA’s top spot overall.

Also sure to be battling for the individual crown is Neshaminy’s junior Rusty Kujdych. The junior just won the CRN Invitational and will be hungry for a rematch with Galligan, who defeated him at the Briarwood Invite. Kujdych, Tristan Forsythe, Liam Conway of Owen J. Roberts and Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg are three of the best juniors in the state this year. The match up for top junior honors in this race should be an intriguing sub plot.

Other top runners include Alex Tomasko of Mechanicsburg, Seth Slavin and Gabe Sullivan of Pleasant Valley, Matt D’Aquila of Lower Merion, Evan Hutton of William Tennent, Matt Scarpill of CB South, and Nick Norton of Hempfield.

If you are looking for sleepers, definitely don’t forget about David Haines from North Pocono. His teammate, Matt Kravitz, was PA’s top dog at this meet last year and he performed very well himself. Haines opened up with a big win at Lackawanna but has been quiet since. Also keep an eye out for Conestoga’s star frosh Carlos Schultz who will look to challenge the 16-minute barrier. Owen Ritz of GA (the Ritz bros have a nice history here) and Hunter Crawley of South Williamsport are other names that I really think could surprise. Crawley especially has a chance to turn heads. If he goes after A rivals Forsythe and Mackey, he could end being pulled to a very fast time. His teammate, Griffin Molino, ran sub 15:20 on this course back in 2014.

The team title is going to be one to remember. The defending champions, Hempfield, ran a terrific race at Carlisle a weekend ago, but their District 3 opponents, Mechanicsburg and Cumberland Valley, were right on their heels. Cumberland Valley will hopefully add their #5 man back into the equation and potentially flip the script on the two squads ahead of them. Meanwhile, Mechanicsburg will look to continue to gain big meet experience. They’ve raced PTXC, Carlisle and now Paul Short to help prepare themselves for a run at states in a few weeks. I like Mechanicsburg’s odds at an upset victory here, they just need a little something extra from the back half of the line-up.

But the team with the most motivation to make a statement in this race is Parkland. They won at the Centaur Invitational, but have been off the radar since. I have to imagine they have put a lot of emphasis on this meet which is close to home for the District 11 school. They aren’t on my team rankings right now, but this is a school that many had in their top 10 over the summer and they have a couple guys (Michael Geiger, Sam Morgan) who have made appearances on the top 50. Watch for Nicholas Bower as the x-factor as Parkland goes for the title.

My potential upset team would be Spring Ford. Yes, I picked them to win at Foundation last week and was wrong, but I’d imagine they will get Zach Smith back in the line-up this weekend and have a little extra fire in their belly after a somewhat disappointing opening invite. Remember, the trip to Hershey was their first 5k invitational and, with big expectations, they likely had a lot of butterflies in their stomach. After that rust buster, they could do what they did at this meet last year and show a nice improvement from Foundation to Paul Short (they finished a surprising 2^nd last year). The key will likely be Smith and Jake McKenna, but I’m also very interested to see how Joseph Power runs this week. He might be their x-factor.

Lower Merion has a nice top 3 and was 9^th at Foundation last week. After getting their own rust buster out of the way, they could definitely be a factor in this team title race. Pennsbury is always a dangerous team who should benefit from the move to the fast Lehigh course. And of course the much discussed Avon Grove pack will be on full display for their biggest invitational of the season. They may be able to do something similar to what Spring Ford and Parkland did so effectively a year ago, using a tight pack to finish among the top 3 teams in the final standings.

For the record, I’m also a big fan of this William Tennent squad. They have really been developing as a strong, consistent program and don’t think we’ve seen their best performance just yet. Maybe this is the week where they break out.

One final thought. It’s going to be tricky for guys to run two hard invites back to back. Especially after racing Hershey. The Hershey hills eat you up and spit you out, so who knows how each individual runner will handle it (I know I handled it horribly back when I tried it). Last year, there wasn’t too much carnage from week to week, but don’t read into it too much if one of your favorite performers from a week ago has an off day.

Prediction (PA Only)

1. Lefever

2. Galligan

3. Kujdych

4. Dahl

5. Conway

6. Forsythe

7. Cupp

1. Cumberland Valley

2. Parkland

3. Spring Ford

4. Mechanicsburg

5. Hempfield

P.S. No, that title is not a type-o.