2017 State Preview: AAA 3200m

by etrain11

AAA 3200m

The AAA 3200 has given us so many fantastic memories in recent years. In 2014, Ross Wilson sprinted by Tony Russell in the final 100 meters to run 8:56 and break the long standing state meet record in the event. Three runners broke nine minutes in PA’s greatest ever 3200. Well, the greatest at the time anyway. A year later, Zach Brehm of Carlisle used a sub 4:20 final mile to sprint ahead of a stacked field and clock an 8:55, breaking the meet record and leading 4 runners under 9 minutes for the first time. All 8 state medalists had season bests under 9:01 for 3200 including 6 sub 9 guys. Last year, the heat stopped us from seeing some more fast times and instead we saw one of the most impressive upsets of the decade as Matt Kravitz pulled off the impossible defeating district champs Brophy, Henderson and Wolk.

So what’s 2017 going to give us? I’ve got a sneaky feeling we are heading back down toward the nine minute barrier. It seems crazy to say considering there have only been three state championship races in the meet’s long history that have included a sub 9 8-lapper, but I’ve got a feeling this is going to be a fourth.

Some of you are probably wondering why I feel this way. Others are wondering why I’m wasting my time discussing dudes who ran at states before they were even in high school. And most are probably just skipping down to the part where I list out my top 8 (keep scrolling my friend, you’ll get there). So allow me to explain the sub 9 logic. First off, we’ve got an incredibly talented 1-2 punch. Nate Henderson of JP McCaskey is running really well this spring. He clocked a 3200 PR of 9:03, a near PR of 4:11 and an open PR of 1:55. All in the same meet. Henderson has some extra confidence, having won a state title during indoors, and he just took care of business against two of his biggest competitors at the District Championships without all that much trouble.

But Sam Affolder looms as a very formidable counterpunch. Affolder has excellent strength, having placed 2^nd at the Northeast Regional meet in Cross Country and run 9:08 for 3200 a couple weeks prior, but can also drop down and run 1:54 for 800. And in between? How’s a 4:08 strike you? Sam Affolder has run faster on an outdoor track than Tony Russell, Chris Spooner, Paul Springer, Nick Dahl and more. By the way, those aren’t just a list of PA all-time greats, they are list of sub 9 3200 runners. Oh, by the way, Sam is just a sophomore.

In many ways, you can compare these two to perhaps PA’s greatest runner of the century, Craig Miller. Henderson’s triple at LLs was better than anything the magical Miller did at the meet while Affolder is the fastest, most prolific sophomore across the board since Craig won XC states and ran 4:06 for a full mile. That’s pretty good company.

And yet, there’s a very realistic chance that neither of those two guys wins. Rusty Kujdych hasn’t dropped a jaw dropping mile like the other two. He wasn’t at this year’s Penn Relays. But the kid is still turning heads. The junior has fearless gone to the front just about everywhere he races and pushes the pace, going for a big time. At districts, he dropped a new PR of 9:07.00 and won another district title in the loaded D1.

Speaking of that loaded District (yes, this is the landmark 50^th time that I used that transition this year!), D1 produced just as strong a crop as ever this past weekend with 11 SQS performances. The top 8 are here and all within the top 14 seeds including 6 of the top 8 overall. Leading the contenders is Cheltenham’s Will Griffen. The Cheltenham senior went from solid 2 miler to state title contender in the blink of an eye as he came up just 3 hundredths of a second short of unseating Rusty Kujdych’s hold on the top of the Philly area. Griffen has some experience at this state championship from a year ago and was a top 50 finisher in XC, but he’s still searching for his first state medal. It would be pretty wild to see Griffen atop the podium, but it’s looking very possible after his district performance.

The other D1 qualifiers who cracked 9:20 were Connor McMenamin, Brian Mass, Ryan Campbell and Matt D’Aquila. All but Campbell have competed in this event at outdoor states in the past (McMenamin as a sophomore), but Campbell may have the most upside. He was the Henderson 3200 champ, ran a Kiwanis record 5k and anchored CRN to an awesome DMR finish at the Penn Relays. I may actually like Campbell’s odds at a top 4 finish the best out of all these guys as I’d imagine he will be motivated after his 5^th place finish at districts. McMenamin and Campbell were 6^th and 7^th at XC states this past fall.

A year ago, the WPIAL took spots 2 through 5 at the state championship while District One took just 1 medal (and it was 8^th). So recent history would suggest we should give a long look at the D7 qualifiers. The top seed is #10 Noah Beveridge of Butler who ran a new PR of 9:20.85 at districts. The time may not seem all that mind-blowing, but Beveridge handled himself well against a stacked field and ran faster than even AA standout Zach Skolnekovich in his winning effort. Most probably still remember Noah’s clutch run at states during XC when he moved all the way up to 5^th in the final standings. Trey Razanauskas, Casey Conboy and Mark Provenzo are the other qualifiers from this district and will all be looking for medals to keep the hot streak alive for this district.

If we are going to talk about 2016, we have to also mention North Pocono’s David Haines. The senior ran a great 9:22 to defeat district mate Jack Zardecki and now the pair are right in the hunt for medals. Haines seemed like he had more in the tank after districts and should benefit from having other fast dudes in the pack to help share the lead. I think Haines has a lot of upside as a medal contender in this group. And he’s not the only small district guy with a shot. Seth Slavin of Pleasant Valley won his district in “just” 9:25, but was a medalist each of the past two years during indoor at 3k. District 11 has medaled at states in this event each of the past two years. Mitchell Etter of State College ran a 9:27 at the Shippensburg Invite behind Sam Affolder and, although he’s been relatively quiet since then, has incredible upside in this race. State College could really use the extra points as well as they try to defend their state title. Isaac Davis, a top 5 XC state finisher in AA, and Amadou Diallo of Allerdice, a state medalist in AAA, are both guys who can drop a lot of time against this top tier competition.

But the guy I feel like I’ve glossed over all year is Ryan James of O’Hara. The O’Hara boys have had some bad luck recently with falls and meet cancellations, but RJ has quietly put together an excellent season. He’s run a PR for 3200, he rolled through the DELCO league, even broke 2 minutes in the 800. The guy is a huge talent who has yet to race guys that are truly on his level. And we now that James can pull off the surprise on the big stage like he did when he anchored O’Hara’s DMR to a state title indoors in 2016. Also worth noting, Kevin James’s best finish at states in the 3200 was third. Wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan has that in the back of his mind.

So now that I’ve named practically all the guys in the entire race, I should probably get into my predictions. Here’s my basic thought process. This year was the year of District 3. They took the top 4 spots at XC states, they had their best team finish in XC, the DMR and the 4x8 of the past 10 years or so and they put District 1 down every chance they had. That starts with Sam Affolder and Nate Henderson, two of the absolute best we have in the state. But that also includes a guy by the name of Zach Lefever. This kid is a phenomenal runner who, although he has been splitting time with the 4x8, has still run 9:17 for 3200 and 8:31 for 3k. He could really turn heads in this race, especially in the heat. Remember, Zach was the top runner from District 3 at states in this event a year ago.

Could those guys take the top 3 spots at this race? It’s definitely in play. I think if not top 3, then 3 of the top 4. It just seems like it’s been that kind of year for the district.

I expect this race to be fast. Henderson usually doesn’t mess around with the pace. Kujdych certainly hasn’t seen a 65 second lap he doesn’t like. And they are both incredibly fit and very aware that a 4:08 miler is lurking in their midst. Remember when the stacked field of 2015 let Zach Brehm hang around at 4:30-4:35 pace? The miler ended up getting the best of them. I would be surprised if they don’t at least try to burn out Sam’s kick a bit.

Ultimately, I like Kujdych a lot and respect the marks he has put down this year, but I’d say this one comes down to Nate vs. Sam. These two have been going at it a lot this year, dating back to XC, but it’s worth noting that Nate has almost always beaten Sam. It’s been close at times, but Henderson defeated Sam at districts and states in XC and then took him down twice at districts. It’s not clear how much Sam was saving for day two in the 3200 this past Friday, but Nate beat him in the 1600 too just to make things clear about his fitness. On the flip side, Nate is coming off two straight 9^th place finishes at states in the 3200. He was 9^th as a sophomore in a terrific finish (9:08 got him 9^th that year which is seemingly unreal) but was also 9^th last year in a surprise (I think he was dealing with some type of injury). Sam needs the points for Carlisle’s team title quest, but Nate is arguably more focused as he skipped the 1600 trials to focus specifically on this event.

When the dust settles, I think we see sub 9 and I think we see a race to remember. But who will win? Well, I picked Zach Brehm in 2015, trusting in my talent and speed theory and letting the state champ back me up. That same intuition would point toward Sam Affolder. I’ve also leaned two heavy on the favorite at times and shied away from an upset pick which hurt me multiple times last year (although lets be real I was never guessing Kravitz, Espinal or Milligan to win). So really, I should pick Sam Affolder here for the win.

8. David Haines, North Pocono 9:16.50

7. Noah Beveridge, Butler 9:13.75

6. Ryan James, O’Hara 9:10.43

5. Connor McMenamin, Souderton 9:08.55

4. Zach Lefever, Ephrata 9:06.99

3. Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy 9:05.24

2. Sam Affolder, Carlisle 9:05.16

1. Nate Henderson, JP McCaskey 8:59.82

Couldn’t do it. I’m picking Henderson. It feels right. The medal positions here were absolutely brutal to pick. I ended picking in favor of the front running types over the guys who tend to pick dudes off which may be a huge mistake. Seth Slavin was the most painful omission for sure. I really like Etter as a contender, but I think this may just be too deep of a field for him to hang with. Anybody who has an off day could slip down the standings really far, similar to what happened to Brophy and Henderson a year ago.

Interesting team title implications here surround McMenamin. Souderton is a sneaky podium team if their hurdler is on point this weekend. If McMenamin picks up 5, 6 or maybe even 8 points they have a really nice point total on paper.