PA HS XC Top 50 Rankings: Week Five

By Jarrett Felix

Alright so work with me here, you’re going to have to read some of my more general thoughts before we get into the meat of the list. Or you can skip the next couple paragraphs and just go straight to the list. That’s the power of technology.

So I was typing out this list from my Excel file to a word document and a couple things really struck me. The big thing is the emergence of AAA District 3 on this list. D3 has always been strong, especially on the track where they’ve had a number of state champs. But in the last few XC years, the district has struggled relative to their counterparts out west (District 7) and certainly relative to District One, the dominant force year in and year out (small side note, at outdoor states this past spring the AAA distance state titles were won by District 2, District 6, District 6 and District 11 so how about that). But this year, I’ve got D3 guys with 4 of the 5 AAA spots overall. They also have 9, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 18! That’s wild. That would be, assuming I’ve done all my math correct, a whopping 10 of the top 20 individuals if my list ended up forecasting the future for Hershey (editor’s note: there’s literally a zero percent chance of that happening).

In 2006, District One took 15 of the top 20 spots (shout out to Coatesville and Henderson for taking 8 of those by themselves). In 2007, District One took 14. But since then, they’ve only been in the double digits twice (2012 and 2013 with 10 and 11 respectively) and have averaged a little over 7.5 of the top 20. During that same eight-year stretch from 2008 to 2015, District 3 has had a total of 16 top 20 finishers with just 4 top 10 finishes. So is this just a huge year for District 3 or am I really underrating the District One guys?

The other interesting thing about the District One guys is the youth of them all. Out of the top 6 district one guys, four are juniors. Considering the top senior from District One at states has been 1^st, 3^rd, 1^st, 4^th and 3^rd over the past five seasons, it seems reasonable that I’m sleeping on somebody (probably Galligan who, unfortunately, we didn’t get to see race this weekend, fingers crossed he’s healthy).

Also, I’m a little worried that I undervalued the Foundation Invite relative to Carlisle. From looking at Paul Short results, I think I should have given the guys at Foundation a bit more love in last week’s edition of the rankings (individuals and perhaps team as well). Sorry guys, hopefully you come back and make noise next weekend to boost your stock. Stephen Paul of LaSalle is #51 this week and Gabe Sullivan of Pleasant Valley is #52 (both guys ran Foundation).

And finally, the A individual state race is going to be terrific. There are a ton of guys returning from the top of the field a year ago, but it’s the guys who are outside that top five group that have been the most fun. Although Forsythe has been terrific, I still think the championship is relatively up for grabs and even the top 3-5 is very up in the air in my opinion. Quinn Serfass and Zach Wortman were two of my favorite performers from this past weekend and both are big A sleepers who just missed out on the list.

Now, to the actual list.

50. Carlos Schultz, Fr Conestoga (1 AAA)

It’s extremely rare that a freshman makes the Top 50 XC rankings. Especially this early in the season. In the past, Josh Hoey and Sam Ritz (a couple 4:11 sophomore milers) have made the list. Those are the only guys I’ve found in my digging across both blogs. And neither of those guys broke 16 at Lehigh. Freshman who have broke 16 at Lehigh in the last decade: Ned Willig (15:55 at Districts), Jake Brophy (15:53 at Districts). Those are the only two times I can remember it happening. Oh and Carlos Schultz (15:56 at Paul Short). Look out PA.

49. Noah Beveridge, Jr Butler (7 AAA)

Beveridge quietly dominated at the District course. I talked above about how I might be underrated District One, but how about AAA District 7? They’ve been easily the second best district in XC over the past 7 years and they took 2-3-4-5 this past spring in the 3200m (shameless plug, we did an interview with them over the summer). Beveridge was a top 50 finisher at states last year who didn’t really come on until the stretch run of the season. Dude knows how to bring his “A” game for the big meets.

48. Christian Groff, Jr Hempfield (3 AAA)

A lot to like about Hempfield the last two weeks including their emerging star Christian Groff. He’s been a top 7 varsity runner each of the past two seasons, but this is the first season’s he’s really took a leap into the elite tier. His brother was a 4:16 miler for Hempfield not too long ago.

47. Nate Romberger, Sr Red Land (3 AAA)

46. Patrick Jacobson, Sr Dallastown (3 AAA)

45. Eric Kennedy, Sr Kiski (7 AAA)

44. Evan Addison, Jr LaSalle (12 AAA)

43. Bryan Keller, Sr CR North (1 AAA)

42. Mark Brown, So Greensburg Salem (7 AA)

41. Andrew Sullivan, Jr Hershey (3 AAA)

40. Ryan Campbell, Jr CR North (1 AAA)

39. Matt Scarpill, Sr CB South (1 AAA)

38. Ben Littman, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

37. Matt D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (1 AAA)

36. David Haines, Sr North Pocono (2 AA)

Remember Matt Kravitz? Well he may have grabbed the spotlight from Haines a year ago (overshadowing his state medal winning performance), but he also likely taught the kid a thing or two about how to perform on the big stage. A 15:49 at Paul Short indicates he listened well.

35. Shaun Bullock, Sr DT West (1 AAA)

34. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (1 AAA)

His performance at Salesianum was really fast for that course and puts him on par with a lot of guys who finished the season as top 20 performers in Pennsylvania. He’s fought tough battles with Endres, Abrahams and now Conboy in recent weeks and, although he’s come up short of victory, he’s displayed a real toughness that you have to respect looking ahead to the championship meets where toughness will be important.

33. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent (1 AAA)

We have a writer named Evan Hatton so all the more reason to root for this guy. He’s been phenomenal this year. Runs the hilly courses well (Belmont, DeSales) and then crushes the flat stuff. When’s the last time William Tennent had a AAA state medalist? How about a AAA Top 50 finisher?

32. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

31. Jonah Powell, So Grove City (10 AA)

I said this in my recap, but just to clarify: eerily similar result to Jacob Kildoo’s sophomore season. Take a look back at my Top 100 of the last decade post (another shameless plug) and look at Kildoo’s resume. It’s pretty darn special. Kildoo finished 17^th in AAA as a sophomore with a time that would have been fast enough for 3^rd in AA (and, by the way, he finished 27^th at Foot Locker Regionals that year).

30. Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (11 AAA)

29. James Abarahms, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)

28. Spencer Smucker, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)

27. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette (7 AA)

26. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (7 AAA)

Combine Noah Beveridge’s “the WPIAL is underrated” logic with Avery Lederer’s “that time at Salesianum is legit” rationale and bang you get Conboy at spot #26 with room to grow. By the way, when’s the last time Baldwin had a guy in the top 20 at states?

25. Joe Cullen, Jr Wyomissing (3 AA)

24. Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (10 A)

23. Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

22. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

21. Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

20. Nick Feffer, Sr State College (6 AAA)

19. Ben Bumgarner, Sr Waynesburg Central (7 AA)

18. Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

When’s the last time Mechanicsburg had a state medalist? How about two state medalists? In case you haven’t notice, I’m just going to ask questions and not look up answers.

17. Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

16. Liam Conway, Jr Owen J. Roberts (1 AAA)

15. Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Shore (4 AA)

14. Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

What a talented tier of juniors. You can probably convince me to rotate these guys in a number of different combinations, but for now Cupp is my guy. He’s really strong so far this year and has finished at the front of his “tier” just about every race. Now the question over the last month is, can he make the jump into that next tier?

Ok, you can’t blame me for not answering that question. It hasn’t even happened yet. What do you want me to predict the future? Maybe with some type of organized prediction style post? Please.

13. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin Regional (7 AAA)

12. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton (1 AAA)

11. Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

10. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (1 AAA)

Can Rusty win the District One championship this year? He just ran 15:20s with almost a month still left until districts. I think he’s roughly 40 seconds ahead of where he was at this meet last year as well when he ended up rocketing down the stretch run of the season and placed 19^th in Hershey. Stay tuned.

9. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

8. Liam Galligan, Sr Springfield (1 AAA)

7. Zach Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (7 AA)

6. Zach Lefever, Sr Ephrata (3 AAA)

You could have convinced me that Lefever has done enough thus far to warrant inclusion in the top 5. That’s how impressed I’ve been with him the last 12 months.

5. Josh Hoey, Jr Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)

4. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (3 AAA)

3. Nick Dahl, Sr GFS (Independent)

Dahl is the only guy within sniffing distance of Noah Affolder by track PRs (4:08-8:58). He ran the equivalent of 9:15 for 3200m as a freshman. The guy has a ton of talent. And this is the best I’ve ever seen him look on a cross country pitch (read that in a British announcer voice inside your head). It looks like Dahl may pursue Footlocker this year rather than NXN (a change for GFS) which should make things fun as that’s where I expect at least Noah Affolder and Nate Henderson to be competing at season’s end (and hopefully PA sends an armada up to VCP).

And heck, we don’t have to wait that long before we see Dahl against Affolder as the pair will go head to head at Manhattan next weekend. Also in attendance will be DT West, LaSalle, Bishop Shanahan, Germantown Academy and West Chester Henderson. A battle between 4 of the top 5 individuals and 3 of the top 4 (or by many people’s list 3) teams in the state? That sounds pretty good! Somebody should write a preview about that or something.

2. Nathan Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (3 AAA)

1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

We’ve never had a guy like this before. I thought Brophy was amazing, but this kid somehow takes it up another notch. Is sub 15 at Hershey possible? It certainly feels that way. He honestly doesn’t ever seem concerned about states, he just wants to go out and win Footlocker Nationals. Maybe that’s a weakness? I don’t know, I’m grasping at straws here.

The next big milestone for Noah will be the 12 minute barrier at Manhattan. He won the race last year in 12:14 (a 7 second margin of victory). Alex Ostberg ran 11:57.2 on the 2.5 mile course in 2014, Ed Cheserek ran 11:58.7 in 2012 and 11:55.39 in 2011. Prior to that, the record belonged to Joe Rosa in 2009 (12:03.8). PA’s record time for the lay out belongs to Tony Russell who ran 12:20.0 in 2013 (when he won the Eastern States Championship).

As is usually the case with Noah, that record seems to be in serious jeopardy.