Women's 800m
This is a stacked event this year at USAs. The field is led by Ajee Wilson, the former world junior champion, who has positioned herself to contend for senior gold this year. She has run 1:57.87 this year and is less than half a second from being undefeated on the year. Hopefully she can grab gold in Beijing and help the US by getting us 4 spots next year.
The U.S. has 5 sub two minute girls (one of which will be competing in the Junior championships, Rodgers from Oregon) so somebody has to leave Eugene unhappy. One member of the sub 2 crew is Chanelle Price from Easton, PA. The former world indoor champion has fought well in some tough races this year, but will need to have a strong day to be in the top 3 of this stacked field.
Brenda Martinez is the 2013 bronze medalist at 800m and has great 1500m strength to help her get through the rounds. She could play spoiler to Wilson's coronation. Also don't count out past US champion Alysia Montano who is trying to round back into top form after having a baby.
Maggie Vessey is probably the #1 contender yet to be mentioned, holding a 1:57 PR and posting a strong win in the slower section of 800m at Prefontaine. Molly Ludlow (formerly Beckwith) also sits under 2 minutes this year. Phoebe Wright, who holds a 1:58 PR, is doing some of her best running since her Tennessee days and will be hunting for former teammate Chanelle Price among others in this stacked field.
PA's Angel Piccirillo will be competing in this event, having just missed the 15 qualifying. Also keep an eye on decorated Division 3 runner Christy Cazzola.
Predictions for world qualifying:
1. Wilson
2. Martinez
3. Vessey
Women's 1500m
In this event (also loaded) the United States does have an extra qualifying spot as Jenny Simpson is guaranteed a spot on the line in Beijing thanks to her diamond league title last year. Simpson is the favorite to win this race, but the drama for world qualifying will likely happen behind her.
One of those potential qualifiers, Shannon Rowbury, is also slated to run the 5,000m which is the same day as the 1500 final (earlier Sunday morning, there is about 4 hours in between). Rowbury has proven she is a capable doubler and based on her race schedule it's clear she's been working hard to prepare for the US championships. But in such a deep 1500 field, a slot at Worlds is far from a lock, even for a talent like Shannon.
Rowbury, a former world bronze medalist in this event, will be challenged by a crew of talents including Sarah Brown, Katie Mackey, Gabby Grunewald and Treniere Moser. Also in the mix to make the team is HS senior Alexa Efraimson who broke Mary Cain's record when she ran 4:03.39 earlier this year.
Efraimson has been fantastic this year, but she has never been as talented tactically or as a kicker as Cain (who was 2nd at USAs and made a world championship final in 2013). However, she's a year stronger and more experienced headed into this year's championships so maybe Alexa can grab one of the world team spots.
Mary Cain will be in this field as well, but she has had a difficult sophomore year as a professional so few expect her to be much of a factor in this race.
Also in the mix worth noting is former U.S. Champ Morgan Uceny, former world qualifier Cory McGee and former NCAA champion Shelbh Houlihan.
My picks,
1. Simpson
2. Mackey
3. Brown
4. Rowbury
Women's 5000m
Molly Huddle, the American Record holder at 14:42, will battle with sub 15 woman Shannon Rowbury in this event. Rowbury may choose to conserve her strength and not push for the win considering she has the 15 later in the day while Huddle will be doubling back from the 10k. That could potentially make the duo vulnerable, however their resumes are light years better than most, if not all, of this field. Both should advance to Beijing assuming they contest the race.
After that the field is fairly wide open. Nicole Tully, who has had a fantastic season to date, leads the chase pack on paper but that pack also includes Shalane Flanagan, one of the greatest American distance runners of all time. Also rapidly ascending on the national scene is former NCAA champ and Dartmouth graduate Abby D'Agostino. She could potentially surprise if she continues to drop time like she has in recent weeks.
Also worth noting Gabby Grunewald and Katie Mackey are both entered in the 5,000 as well as the 1500 and, assuming the make the 1500 finals, I'd bet they scratch out in favor of the shorter race.
Other names you may recognize include Emily Infeld, Marielle Hall, Alexi Pappas (shout to Luke Munyan), Liz Costello and Kara Goucher.
1. Huddle
2. Rowbury
3. D'Agositino
Women's 10,000m
Molly Huddle is officially making the transition up towards 10k, likely a smart move considering the strength of the 5 on the world stage with two potential world record breakers currently dominating that event. Huddle comes in with a sub 31 minute mark in the event, putting her among an elite group of runners in the nations history. She is too shape and has plenty of momentum in her favor. She shouldn't have much of a problem in this one.
Shalane Flanagan used to hold Huddle's spot at these championships as a clear favorite to win when she steps on the track. Flanagan is getting older and has begun the transition into serious marathoning, but that hasn't stopped her from competing well at both 10k and, surprisingly, 5k so far. Considering her talent and experience it's hard to imagine Shalane not grabbing another qualifying spot.
That leaves just one left and the smart money says it's going to run away NCAA 5k champ Emily Sisson. Sisson was dominate this year at Providence and has always been stronger the farther up in distance she goes. Many consider her the future of US long distance running. She used to hold the high school record for 5k before this girl by the name of Mary Cain came along.
If someone is going to break up the poetic past, present, future trio it's likely going to be Emily Infeld who has had a fantastic year and boasts 15:07 and 31:38 seed marks for the championship. The former Gtown stand out has raced extremely well in a variety of competitive fields and this is likely her best chance to make a US team.
Also worth noting are Liz Costello, Emma Bates from Boise State (major sleeper after a tough NCAA), Erin Finn, Alexi Pappas and Elaina Balouris.
1. Huddle
2. Infeld
3. Flanagan
Women's Steeplechase
Emma Coburn who is technically the fastest US women to ever run the steeplechase comes in well ahead of her competition this year and poised to take home another national title. Similar to Evan Jager on the men's side, the real drama for her will come at the World Championships where she will try to challenge for a medal.
Behind her a group of four runners come in with sun 9:30 seeds: Stephanie Garcia, Nicole Bush, Ashley Higginson and Colleen Quigley (the NCAA champ). It appears those ladies and Michigan State's Leah O'Connor will comprise the chase pack gunning for their own spot in China.
Quigley and O'Connor may only be collegiates, but both are poised to be true contenders in this event. O'Connor apparently had a fall in the stands prior to the steeple final at NCAAs. That coupled with the fact that she led most of the race in Eugene hurt her chances of winning gold. Neither of those should be factors here (assuming she is fully recovered) as Coburn is perfectly comfortable controlling the pace.
PA's own Tori Gerlach will also be participating in the steeplechase, hoping to qualify for the finals.
1. Coburn
2. O'Connor
3. Higginson
1. Coburn
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