Etrain made his predictions in a series of posts on the professional tab. The others weigh in here to predicting what should be an exciting championships.
Caleb Gatchell
In the past the 800 has been one of the more predictable events at USA’s, however, I think that’s about to change this year. Nick Symmonds just doesn’t look like the Symmonds of old, and there are a bunch of new young guns eager to make their names known. Not least among these is Boris Berian, who has already run 1:43 this year, taking second to only David Rudisha at the Adidas Grand Prix in New York. We also have Casmir Loxsomwho will be looking to make his first senior national team. There are also a few veterans like Charles Jock and Eric Sowinski in the field. Ultimately, I worry that even though Berian has the time, he hasn’t won a race yet this year. Jock has, and he has done so consistently. I think Loxsom is on a roll as well, and will also make the World’s team. I think Ryan Martin and Michael Rutt have the experience to get through the rounds safely and race well in the final, but will just miss top 3.
1: Charles Jock
2: Boris Berian
3: Casmir Loxsom
4: Ryan Martin
5: Michael Rutt
I think Matt Centrowitz is the clear favorite in the 1500, but behind him there will be a whole slew of guys fighting it out for the last 2 spots. We have Andrew (Don’t call it a comeback) Wheating, Manzano, Noelle, Blankenship, Andrews, Fleet, Torrence, and Merber. I think Blankenship is running with a chip on his shoulder right now. He was clearly unhappy that he did not make it into the invite mile at Pre, and I think he’ll be running very motivated. However, I worry a little about his tactical savvy. Manzano, Mac Fleet, and Robby Andrews all have an excellent kick, so you have to be aware of them in the last 150. Then you have guys like Merber and Noelle who have been running very well all year, so you have to figure they will be mixing it up at the front. Ultimately, I think it will be a tactical affair, so I have to go with experience in the 2nd and 3rdspots. I think Blankenship and Andrews will end up just off the worlds team.
1: Matt Centrowitz
2: Leo Manzano
3: Kyle Merber
4: Ben Blankenship
5: Robby Andrews
In the 5k we have the return of the old man, Bernard Lagat. His success in tactical races is pretty near unrivaled, but does he still have what it takes? I’m sure Rupp would like to get another national title, and there are a whole bunch of guys eager to make a World’s team. Guys like Ben True, Diego Estrada, Ryan Hill, Chris Derrick, Lopez Lomong, and Riley Masters to name a few. I haven’t seen much from Estrada recently, but he has been very successful recently. True is coming off a big 10k win and a DL 5k win over Nick Willis, so he is also on a role. Lomong, Derrick and Hill all carry impressive resume’s as well. Ultimately, I think Rupp takes this, followed by Hill and Lagat. I think experience is key in these races, and a few of these younger guys may be just a year or two away.
1: Galen Rupp
2: Ryan Hill
3: Bernard Lagat
4: Lopez Lomong
5: Ben True
The 10k features a bunch of the same names as the 5k, and several of them, like True and Estrada, are much better suited to that distance. I think Rupp is an overwhelming favorite, and that almost goes without saying. The question is, can anyone other than True and Estrada finish out this field? I think the most likely suspects would be Chris Derrick and Jared Ward. Ultimately though, I can’t see either one cracking the top 3.
1: Galen Rupp
2: Ben True
3: Diego Estrada
4: Chris Derrick
5: Jared Ward
I think the Steeplechase is an event we will see a few surprises in. Behind Jager, watch out for Tabor Stevens who has been untouchable in d2 all season, and Kebenei, who besides a defeat to Rotich at NCAA’s, has also been pretty near unbeatable. Bayer, Cabral, Leslie, and Huling are all other names that could run very well. I think Stevens is going to shock some people and make the team, but I don’t think Kebenei can pull it off. His loss at NCAA’s worries me, especially since this will most likely also be a tactical race. I have to give Bayer the edge for the last spot, but I can’t give any good reason.
1: Evan Jager
2: Tabor Stevens
3: Andy Bayer
4: Stanley Kebenei
5: Dan Huling
Alex Fox
USA Outdoor Championships Predictions
Another championship meet, another predictions contest. To be brutally honest, I’m not super invested in this event; given the controversy surrounding many of the top American distance runners, it’s been difficult to truly apply myself in the professional aspect of the sport. That said, I really want to beat Garrett after NCAA Outdoors. With revenge on my mind, here’s how I think this weekend will play out:
800m
The story of American 800 runners this year has been a tale of a meteoric rise, and the decline of some legends. Boris Berian burst onto the scene with a victory at Peyton Jordan, running 1:45 to grab the attention of many fans. Berian proved to be more than a one hit wonder with his encore performance at the Adidas Grand Prix, running an incredible 1:43.84. At the ripe age of 22, Berian seems primed to be a major force in the running world, and is a strong candidate to break the American record. On the flip side, two absolute heroes in American running, Nick Symmonds and Duane Solomon, appear to have their best days behind them. Both have run 1:42, but those times seem to have come ages ago, and it would come as a shock to see either PR again. As easy as it is to get caught up in the attention those three runners have received of late, guys like Cam Loxsom (AR holder in the 600m), Erik Sowinski, and Mike Rutt. Can Berian continue to hang with the big boys? What do Symmonds and Solomon have left in the tank? We will soon find out.
Top 5
1) Sowinski
2) Loxsom
3) Berian
4) Rutt
5) Solomon
1500m
A few months ago, I pronounced Matt Centrowitz as the face of American distance running. Now, due to his connection with Alberto Salazar, I am reluctant to believe in his accomplishments. Controversy aside, he will be racing in the 1500m, and he should be in contention for the win. His talent is undeniable. Alongside him will be Leo Manzano, who may not have the flash of Centro, but he certainly has the hardware and consistency to back his name. After those two, there are many who will be jostling for the final spot. Pat Casey, Kyle Merber, Ben Blankenship, Will Leer, Robby Andrews, Andrew Wheatening, and David Torrence have all had their ups and downs, but it certainly appears as though the final spot will go to someone in this mix.
Top 5
1) Centrowitz
2) Manzano
3) Blankenship
4) Leer
5) Merber
5000m
How does Bernard Lagat still do it? The dude is 40 and is still one of the most consistent racers in the world. Is he clean? I don’t know. I do know he can race with the best of them, and will be looking to continue his dominance. Another athlete who’s had their fair share of doubters is Galen Rupp, who despite his ridiculous name and rat-like appearance, is a very solid runner. Will he be able to conquer the fearsome 5k/10k double? I don’t see anyone stopping him. Another talented runner is Ben True, and when he’s on, he’s one of the best. Other runners who should be in the mix are Hassan Mead, XC king Chris Derrick, Lopez Lomong, and the under-rated Diego Estrada.
Top 5
1) Rupp
2) Lagat
3) True
4) Mead
5) Estrada
10,000m
It’s getting late, and there are far too many of the same guys in this race as there are in the 5k to do a complete analysis. There are a few interesting names who could shake things up however: Jason Witt had an awesome year at BYU, and I wonder if he can make some noise in this race. Moreover, Shadrack Kipchirchir has run some fast times, and could be able to stir up a little trouble perhaps. Finally, what would a post be without a shout out to our boy Craig Lutz? Love ya brother.
Top 5
1) Estrada
2) Rupp
3) True
4) Mead
5) Witt
3k Steeple Chase
Here’s my analysis for this event: Evan Jager. Seriously, he’s the only name I know as far this race, and his recent 3:32 inspires a fair bit of confidence. The other picks are a bit of a crapshoot, so I hope no one falls. I’m looking at you, Ferlic…
Top 5
1) Jager
2) Cabral
3) Huling
4) Bayer
By Dylan Jaklitsch
Before I get into my USA Champs predictions, I would like to briefly introduce myself. My name is Dylan, and I am from Central New York. I was introduced to Train & Co. by Alex Fox, another recent addition to the team. I will bring a love for running and stats to the site, in addition to a wealth of New York T&F knowledge.
800m
Now, onto the 800m. There are young runners like Kidder, Walker, and Garn, and seasoned runners such as Johnson, Abda,Symmonds, Jock, and Solomon entered. I may be shocking many of you when I predict that NONE of these runners will finish in the top five, much less the top three. While I feel that the younger runners all have a bright future in the event, their time (no pun intended) has not yet come; as for the latter group of runners, they have not impressed me this year, and I am expecting the next group of mid-distance runners to take over. Mark Wieczorek has had a strong campaign, running 1:45 at Payton Jordan, and a 1:15 600 earlier this month. Ryan Martin has battled with Charles Jock for as long as I can remember, and I predict he will triumph over Jock on this weekend. This leaves my top three. Erik Sowinski has been on the cusp of elite 800m status for a couple of years, and after his 4x800 victory at World Relays, I think he’s ready for the next level. Speaking of momentous achievements, Boris Berian ascended to Super Saiyan status by running 1:43.8 this year, hanging with the likes of Bosse & Rudisha on the international level. Finally, we have our 800m winner in Casimir Loxsom. One of the more well-known names in the race, Loxsom ran 1:15/2:22 this indoor season, and is finally ready to show his stuff in an 800m final.
1. Casimir Loxsom
2. Boris Berian
3. Erik Sowinski
4. Ryan Martin
5. Mark Wieczorek
1500m
While the 800m leaders are heavily debated, and largelyunproven in 2015, the 1500m leaders are anything but. Matt Centrowitz and Leonel Manzano are proven winners, and seem to always show up in big races. These runners have medaled in the Olympics, and are my easy 1-2 picks for this race. As Jarrett has previously mentioned, most of these runners are racing for third. Several runners have shown potential to take this spot, such as Will Leer, Dorian Ulrey, Jordan McNamara, David Torrence, and Ford Palmer, all who have championship racing experience. Many may feel that Ben Blankenship is the favorite to take third, after his 3:35 1500, and impressive 1600m anchor leg in the WR-setting DMR at World Relays. However, given his lack of success in U.S. Finals, I am choosing him to finish in fourth. Kyle Merber, another member of that DMR at World Relays, has run 3:34, putting him contention in this event, and putting my “Swarthmore could be short” claims to rest (my bad, Merbs). However, I am giving the edge for third to Pat Casey, who has shown a great deal of potential since his graduation from Oklahoma. He is a runner I have followed closely, and I like his kick and his strength as a runner. This leaves one final spot for my top five. This spot belongs to a guy I have known for about five years, and I have watched run since his sophomore year of high school. He won a NCAA Championship in the 1500m this outdoor season, and was an All-American indoors. Chad Noelle has shown time and time again that he has a lethal kick, most recently finishing his 1500m at NCAA’s in 52 seconds; he has also shown that he can run fast times in the event, posting an NCAA leading 3:38 at Payton Jordan in May. I see shades of Centro in Chad, and I hope that he can make me look good with a top five finish over some seasoned pros.
1. Matt Centrowitz
2. Leo Manzano
3. Pat Casey
4. Ben Blankenship
5. Chad Noelle
3000m SC
The steeple, I must admit, is not an event I follow very closely at the professional level. This is not a race I am expecting to score a lot of points on, so hopefully I don’t do anything foolish. I will start by giving my first place spot to Evan Jager, the American record holder in the event. This man is on fire this year, complimenting his 8:05 SB in the steeple with a huge 3:32 PR in the 1500. As long as he stays on his feet for 3000m, I feel he will take the victory in the barriers. Donn Cabral is my second place finisher, repping the Northeast and boasting three NCAA championships in the event, and Olympic experience. The final member of the team would appear to beDaniel Huling. Not only is he among the best in the country, boasting an 8:13 PR, he has also made four consecutive World Outdoor Championships (’09, ’11, ’13, ’15). However, rounding out the top five, we have Ben Bruce, Andy Bayer, and college star Stanley Kebenei, all extremely talented runners in their own right. While Bruce has the fastest PR of the three (8:19), I like Andy Bayer’s 3:34 speed and the great season that Kebenei has had this year. Bayer has made a seamless transition from the 1500m (finished 4th at Olympic Trials, won an NCAA Title) to the steeplechase, and he will be in strong contention to make the team this year. Although Kebenei has had his struggles against UTEP Steepler Anthony Rotich, he has run low 8:20s in the steeple and I see him as a strong threat to finish in the top five. Bruce has appeared unsteady in recent races, but we are aware of his PR and ability to possibly run a big race this weekend.
1. Evan Jager
2. Donn Cabral
3. Andy Bayer
4. Daniel Huling
5. Stanley Kebenei
5000m
The 5000m race could stack up to be very controversial this weekend, given the allegations that surround several of the race’s runners. Will Rupp, Lagat and more be able to shake these rumors off for a weekend of high-pressure racing? I think so. Rupp is my pick to win this race coming back on the double, as I don’t expect he will expend too much energy winning the 10k.Not far behind, I expect to see Bernard Lagat finishing second. As much as I would like to say that he is washed up, and his time is done, he always seems to peak at the right time (how I think he does it, I will leave for a different article). In the battle for third, we have two runners with very similar PRs. Just six hundredths of a second separated them in the race, and at 13:02.74 and 13:02.80, Ben True and Hassan Mead will battle for the full 5000m. As I am typing this, I still haven’t decided who I think will win. However, I am quite sure that these two runners will take third and fourth in this race. I am giving the edge to Mead in the 5k, as I think that Ben True will make the team with a strong showing in the 10k, which I will get to in just a bit. Fifth will be fought for by the likes of Chris Derrick, Lopez Lomong, Ryan Hill, Garrett Heath, Diego Estrada, Riley Masters, and new pro on the block, Eric Jenkins. Most of these runners have SBs/PRs between 13:15-13:20, while Derrick looks to return to his champion caliber form. Lopez Lomong brings a 13:07 5000m PR into the weekend, but similar to Derrick, has dealt with injury woes and is beginning to show his age. Masters and Jenkins are just bursting onto the professional scene, and look to show that they are deserving of the professional tag.0
1. Galen Rupp
2. Bernard Lagat
3. Hassan Mead
4. Ben True
5. Ryan Hill
10000m
In my final prediction, we have the 10000m run. Rupp, Estrada, Mead, Derrick, Spisak and True all compete for the 5k/10k double, where they match up with fresh legs of Kipchirchir, Jason Witt, Bobby Curtis, and Jacob Riley. Rupp is my favorite to win this race, as the first half of the 5k/10k double. Whether he is clean or not is beyond my knowledge, but his speed and strength in this event cannot be matched by anyone else in this country. In the fight for second, we will most likely see Diego Estrada, Ben True, and Hassan Mead. If my predictions in the 5k have any merit, Ben True is way too good of a runner to not make the US Team in at least one event, and will make the team as a 10k runner. Maybe he will break 27 “easily”, just as he felt breaking 13 would come. Finally, Diego Estrada will finish strong in a thin 10k field to take the third spot of the 10k. His chances to finish top three in the 5k are slim, so I feel that he might move most or all of his eggs into the 10k basket. He has recently run a 27:30 PR at Pre, moving him to the second seed in this race, and also ran a 1:00:51 half marathon at the US Championships in January. Shadrack Kipchirchir, Witt, Landry, Curtis, Chris Derrick, and website favorite Craig Lutz battle for the 5th place spot. While I think a top five finish is slightly over Lutz’s head, for now, we will all be rooting heavily for the guy (how could you not?!). While Kipchirchir is generally in the mix, I like Chris Derrick to move back towards his old ways with a strong fifth place finish, just ahead of Kip and BYU grad Jason Witt. Although he did not start this year the way he may have wished for (13:40 returning from an injury), I like the Stanford grad to show up this weekend.
1. Galen Rupp
2. Ben True
3. Diego Estrada
4. Hassan Mead
5. Chris Derrick
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