By Jarrett Felix
Prelims Thursday 7:00
Semis Friday 11:44
Finals Sunday 4:57
This should be a wild and crazy experience for mid distance fans. First off all, it is a three round affair with just 8 runners slated to line up for the final. As we saw in the NCAA prelims, that can be a tricky road to navigate and some favorites will undeniably be left out of Sunday's itinerary.
Duane Soloman has yet to finish an 800m this season, but he still may have favorite status since he has won the last two US Championships and ran 1:42 the year before that. Meanwhile even more questions are swirling around Brooks Beast Nick Symmonds who has essentially been non existent from a contender stand point since he dropped the swoosh.
Both men have the experience and PBs to get a few respect points from predictors and certainly they can't be counted out but quite frankly I'd be surprised to see Soloman make the team and I don't Symmonds even gets to the final. Too much variance here for me to consider putting either man in my top 5.
There will be plenty of collegiates in this field looking to overcome their youth and make a national team. The biggest name of the bunch is NCAA runner up Brandon Kidder who has run 1:45.58 this year. That easily ranks him among the top 5 guys by SB in the event. Kidder is also worth noting because this will not be his first go round at USAs as he has had success here in the past, including a competitive run in 2013. Plus, Kidder boasts strong strength at 15/mile which could pay big dividends over the course of three rounds.
Some other college kids worth noting include Dylan Capwell, Shaquille Walker, Craig Engels, Jesse Garton and Clayton Murphy. Georgetown is slated to have 3 participants as well.
Although I'm intrigued to see what the future looks like with this group of runners, the real drama will likely be with the professionals. If I had to guess, I'd wager only Kidder has a serious chance at getting to the finals and contending, but a lot can happen.
In my eyes the main contenders for the top 3 slots (excluding the aforementioned Symmonds and Soloman) are Boris Berian, Charles Jock, Ryan Martin, Cas Loxsom and Erik Sowinski.
Berian comes in with the most momentum and the fastest mark of the season for the US, 1:43.84. Berian completely skipped the 1:45s and has dropped from the high 1:48s to contending with World Record Holder David Rudisha in a matter of months. It's very unclear how he will do over the rounds at USAs as he has never been in a meet like this before. He's a raw talent with barely any NCAA racing under his belt since he only raced his freshman season at D2 Adams St before leaving the team. I suppose from a strictly technical standpoint, he's the favorite for gold but it's very hard for me to justify slotting this guy in my top 3.
The last two years, it seemed like Erik Sowinski was ready to ascend to the elite tier of 800m running after some impressive indoor races including a 600m AR at Millrose Games and a U.S. Championship at 800m. However, he seems to have stagnated as a strong 1:44-1:45 guy without the chops to get over the hump. I'm hoping we see a breakthrough this weekend at USAs, but short of that he will be watching the world championships in August.
The big three for me are Loxsom, Jock and Martin, ironically a field of past NCAA studs who it seems like just yesterday were in the shoes of Kidder and company. Loxsom is probably the most exciting and well known name (especially if you are reading this as a PA kid, which you probably are). He has had an excellent year thus far and is a monster at 600m. The key for him has always been translating that speed into a full 800m after a series of rounds. His aggressive front running style could be effective if someone like Soloman or Jock (who seems to have changed that up a bit) strings the field out, but he could be vulnerable if he has to lead twice around the oval.
Charles Jock and Ryan Martin go way back. Jock was the NCAA champ from UC Irvine and Martin was in his same conference, allowing the two to battle to a 1:44 show down while Seniors. Martin was 4th in the 800m at the Olympic Trials in 2012 and Charles Jock made the US World Championship team in 2011 (a fact a lot of people have forgotten).
Jock has matured immensely since graduating and has learned to run different styles of 800m that may pay dividends over the various rounds. Martin has looked excellent the few races I've seen him in and just looks much sharper than years passed. My guess is these two friends (they were roommates at one point and might still be) have a big day at USAs and grab a pair of world qualifiers.
1. Jock
2. Martin
3. Loxsom
4. Berian
5. Sowinski
Small shout to Brandon Johnson who holds a 1:43 PR and made the 2013 team. Haven't seen enough from him to indicate he is close to that form, but he does have strong experience. Mark Wieczorek and Mike Rutt have both made finals in the past and seem to be excellent round runners so we could see them on the starting line on Sunday as well. In deeper leagues, keep an eye on sleeper Joe Abbot.
Men's 1500m
Prelims Thursday 9:45
Finals Saturday 5:20
Leo and Centro are the class of this field, so much so that most people see it as a foregone conclusion that they will be in China this August. It's hard to argue with them. Leo Manzano is the master of making teams and is tactically brilliant with a fierce kick. At Oxy he showed no signs of slowing down and he added a 1:44 run in NY for a little extra confidence. Meanwhile Centro is fresh off one of his best indoor seasons ever and a 1:44 run of his own in NY. He, too, is tactically impressive and has had some near flawless runs at the last 3 global finals where he placed 3rd, 4th and 2nd. He's arguably the most consistent championship racer in the world at 1500m. I'm penciling both guys in for the top two slots without much hesitation.
The remaining spot certainly provides the most intrigue, although most think it belongs to Ben Blankenship if he can duplicate his early season form. Blankenship impressed with a 3:35 run in Shanghai and a brilliant anchor at the World Relays in the DMR. Although Blankenship has yet to produce in a U.S. Final, he has been on the circuit gaining experience for a number of years so he's far from a rookie to this event.
The question becomes, in what is anticipated to be a classic jog and kick fest, how does Blankenship's close stack up against the others in the field? The "others" include Andrew Wheating, Robby Andrews, Kyle Merber, Mac Fleet and Chad Noelle.
Wheating has made the 1500m team twice in recent years (2011 and 2012), but has had an inconsistent streak since to put it politely. But Wheating did have a solid showing at Oxy this year and maybe can revive the Hayward magic one last time.
Robby Andrews and Kyle Merber are both having excellent springs. Both were part of gold medal winning relays in the Bahamas and both have had some strong wins in lower key races nationally. Merber ran a 3:34 PR this season which puts him on the short list of runners with a world qualifier. But Merber has never made a US final and missed the NCAA final completely in 2012 and 2013. But the last two seasons Merber has shown excellent form, better even than his 2012 form where the 3:35 at Swat was a fairly large one off.
Robby has looked more engaged and tactically savvy this season and has not been afraid to mix up his normal lay back strategy. To be fair, the layed back strategy did get him a 1:44, 3:34 and two ncaa titles so it couldn't be all bad. However, he seems to have mixed that kick with a more engaged racing strategy that should allow him to be competitive in this field. The talent here is off the charts as in 2012 Andrews came with a few fractions of beating Farah and Rupp in the 15 and was a mistimed move away from challenging for an Olympic spot in the 1500m. All that happened when he was about 20 years of age and the extra maturation from these past two years should do him some favors.
All that being said I'm incredibly biased because I'm a huge fan of both runners. The name of this blog comes from the Merber and friends video "The Real Maine" (worth a watch if you haven't seen it) and Robby has been my favorite runner since 2009. So it pains me to say I don't see either of them as smart picks for a US spot this year, but this could be a valuable learning experience looking ahead to 2016.
The last three NCAA championships have been shared by Mac Fleet and Chad Noelle with Noelle winning this spring and Fleet taking the previous two. Fleet hasn't been too sharp thus far this year but he has proven over the years that he has excellent tactics. That might be enough to sneak into the top 5 considering the races are expected to be the usual sit and kick affair. Noelle proved he has the kick to compete in a top tier race as well, closing down in 52 at nats. He has also run 3:38 for 15 proving he has the strength to hang in a faster race. He may be a little raw for this sort of stage but to be fair 2011 NCAA champ Centrowitz won the U.S. Title, 2012 champ Andy Bayer finished 4th at the Olympic Trials and 2013 champ Fleet was right in the shoulder of the leaders at USAs that season with 100m to go before fading a bit in the madness of the final straightaway (the Matt Elliot year). That's good news for Noelle's hopes in this one.
The field is littered with a ton of other talents at 1500m. There is proven kicker Peter Callahan from New Mexico who is another of my personal favorites as well as proven 1500m studs like Will Leer, David Torrence and Jordan MacNamara, all of whom have run low 3:34s or faster. Plus there are guys like Dorian Ulrey, Patrick Casey and Ford Palmer with a proven track record of producing at US championships (Ulrey made the U.S. Team in 2009).
Other recognizable names in this one include AJ Acosta, Will Geogehan, Sean McGorty, Daniel Winn, Jack Bolas, Robby Creese, Cristian Soratos and Mike Atchoo.
It's loaded with guys who are "B Tier" talents, but which one can break free and grab a spot on Team USA?
1. Centro
2. Manzano
3. Blankenship
4. Andrews
5. Noelle
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