USA Preview: Men's Long Distance

By Jarrett Felix

Men's 10,000m

Thursday 11:15

Two words: Galen Rupp. The dude has been the dominate force in the 10k for the US for as long as I can remember and he holds the American Record of 26:44 in this event, a seed mark that slots him roughly 45 seconds faster than the next fastest entrant (Diego Estrada). Rupp is making this team as long as he toes the line, but what most fans will be more interested to watch is how he handles the doping allegations that have been made against him recently. It's a heavy issue that could take its toll on Rupp and maybe throw him off his game in one of his two events this coming weekend. 

But it would take quite the mental breakdown to see Rupp even finish second, let alone off the championship team. 

Outside of Galen should be a compelling battle for the final two championship spots. The front runner is Ben True who was 4th a year ago at USAs at both 5000 and 10,000, meaning he just barely missed making the team in two events. This season True seems to really be at the top of his game. A year after nearly breaking 13 minutes, True set an American Record in the road 5k and tallied some other major victories on the roads before adding a diamond league victory in the 5k against Nick Willis and Olympic medalist Thomas Longisiwa among others.

True seems like a pretty safe bet to make the team despite some recent struggles at USAs (missed two 2013 teams and missed the world XC team this past winter).

To me, the third spot is easily the most compelling. The top remaining seeds are Diego Estrada, Hassan Mead and Shadrick Kipchirchir. Estrada was a stud at NAU (one of 3 NAU boys in this race) and has had success at the longer distances since graduating but has also clocked a few sub 13:20 marks at 5,000. Diego ran in the 2012 Olympics for Mexico and has some big race experience although I believe this is his first US Championships appearance. 

Hassan Mead went toe to toe with True in that epic 5k at Stanford and nearly came away with victory as he moved into the top 10 all time in the event. It was Mead's big breakthrough after a relatively modest career at Minnesota and on the pro circuit. Mead has been solid since that impressive run, but has yet to show he can be consistently world class. His kick and big race tactics are still improving as well, but he has only been an A lister for about a year, so he should continue to improve with time. 

Mead has already run two 10ks to make sure he captured the world A standard before USAs in case he made the team. Hopefully two hard 10ks hasn't fried him at all for #3. His 5k speed should pay dividends in this field where many of other top names have yet to showcase impressive closing speed.

Shadrick Kipchirchir was very solid at 10k a year ago for OK State including a runner up finish to King Ches at nationals, but he's been quiet since his graduation. He's now running for the US Army. Top fitness Kipchirchir can hang in this field, but it's important to note when it came time for a kick at nationals a year ago Cheserek absolutely blew the doors off him. Although admittedly, it was Cheserek and he closed in 24.8 that day.

Of course the biggest wild card will be former Stanford harrier Chris Derrick who is still in the process of recovering from injury. Derrick was uninspiring in his return to the track, running 13:40 and, despite the fact that he has made the past two US teams in this event, seems like he is in big trouble this Thursday. His fitness likely won't magically turn around in the next week without some Salazar potion.

However, Derrick had always been a very smart and poised runner. In 2012 at the Olympic Trials in the rain, after a poor showing (by his standards) at NCAAs Derrick ran an impressive race to pick off nearly the entire field and finish 4th (closing on third) in a surprisingly strong showing. If CD can manage his energy appropriately and get to the last mile in contention for the 3rd spot he may be able to gut out a better close than his closest competition. He actually has one of the best 5k PRs in the field and a sneaky strong kick for a 10k guy (fought valiantly with Lawi Lalang on multiple occasions). 

Again, worth noting I'm quite bias considering I'm a big Derrick fan. He's my favorite longer distance guy.

Outside of this group of top runners, it would be a surprise to see anyone else holding the USA flowers. Jason Witt and Jared Ward from BYU have both had impressive careers and should contend, but I'm not sure they are ready to make a team. Bobby Curtis and Jacob Riley have each had their fair share of strong marks over the years as well and Riley looked particularly impressive earlier this fall at USA XC Championships. 

PA's own Jimmy Spisak will be in the race as will blog favorite Craig Lutz who made the move that broke the 10k open at NCAAs. Also in the mix is former Division III champion John Crain.

My picks:

1. Rupp

2. True

3. Derrick

4. Mead

5. Estrada

Men's 5,000m

Sunday 4:27

Many of the same faces from the 10k will be back Sunday to try and either make a second world championship team or redeem themselves for a miss earlier in the week. In fact the top 4 seeds, Rupp, Mead, True and Derrick, all will be doubling from the 10,000. 

I would wager there's a strong chance that regardless of his 10k result, Derrick chooses to pass on this event. If he makes the 10k team, there's no need to race hard here at 5 and if he struggles in the 10k, it may be smarter to just rest up and reboot rather than push it in his worse event. 

Rupp is the favorite here to win as well, although I expect him to have more of a hand full than most others I've seen. For starters, Rupp is going to be mentally exhausted by Sunday and there's always the chance he just scratches the event completely and puts his energies into the 10 (he's never been truly competitive on the world stage in the 5). Even if he does toe the line, Bernard Lagat is still lurking with brilliant tactics and a strong kick. Plus fresh legs. Yes, he's 40 years old, but he has defied age time and time again. Keep in mind this likely won't be a 13 flat affair, I'd expect the pace to be comfortable early to say the least (although probably not the absurd jog fest of 2013 where the top runners all closed under 4 minutes)

There is also the potent kick of Ben True lurking in the shadows ready to challenge Rupp. True's kick in the NY Diamond League was enough to outlast Willis (a sub 3:30 man for 1500m and Olympic medalist) as well as Longisiwa (another Olympic medalist with a solid kick) which is more than Rupp's wheels have been able to do thus far in his career. 

Another pair of legs to watch for belong to Ryan Hill who made the world team in 2013 after competing for NC State. He accomplished the feat with an impressive kick at USAs and followed it up by making the world championship final and hanging well in the pack once he got there. Hill has had a very nice start to his career as a pro and although his PRs have not made any major dips, he has been racing extremely well thus far. I'm not sure he is winning this one, but I like his chances to make the trip to Beijing.

Garrett Heath from Brooks is fresh off an excellent 1500m battle with Evan Jager running 3:34 low despite having to take the reigns of pacing duties and, to quote Jager, "making the race". Heath has been on the cusp of elite US distance runners for a few years now and has decided his speed his better served in the 5k than the 15. He's run sub 13:20 already and if he can keep his nose in long enough to kick, maybe he can sneak his way onto a team. 

But considering all the talent already mentioned and all the talent sitting in the paragraphs below, Heath may be out of luck.

Hassan Mead and Diego Estrada will both double back from the 10k and, considering I've left both off my worlds team in that event, I think they will be hungry and going for it in this race. Estrada probably doesn't have the wheels to truly compete at this event despite a 13:17 already on his resume, but Mead is one of the nations best ever 5k guys so he should compete well. 

Lopez Lomong made the 2012 Olympic team at 5000 and the 2013 world team at 1500. He also looked excellent during indoors this past year. But Lomong, a two time Olympian, has shown signs he might be slowing down after battling with some injuries over the past few years. When Lopez is on his game, he's tough to stop and he has a legitimate kick that rivals the best in any event. Despite his streaky year, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him sneak into one of the top 3 spots in Eugene.

And we can't forget about NCAA runner up at 5k-10k Eric Jenkins who has been untouched by everyone in the NCAA who doesn't fix their shirt every two minutes while running. Jenkins is running with the big boys now and should have a big boy Nike kit on as well, but is he ready for this kind of stage? Although he's only run 13:31, I'd bet his true fitness lies closer to his sub 13:20 mark he clocked while still at Northeastern. That puts him in the mix with the top guys in the field. And also Hayward magic.

Also on the itinerary are names like Riley Masters (broke free for 13:17 this year), Jeff See (good 1500m speed), David Torrence (ditto, but doubling from said 15) and Penn's Thomas Awad.

Here's my projected top 5:

1. Lagat

2. Rupp

3. Hill

4. Lomong

5. True