Well, here goes nothing. We’ve got the senior editor of PennTrack, a self-made blogger on the way to a million total blog views, and 500,000 on this blog alone; not to mention mid-distance stud Caleb Gatchell whose roots are deep in the PAtrack game. As an outsider from New York with virtually no ties to the Pennsylvania running community, I step in to the ring as a complete underdog. Wish me luck everybody!
4x800
1. State College – gunning for the state record, with 4 legs under 2:00 PB and 2 under 1:55… I think sub 7:45 could be in the cards as they race against the clock
2. Central Bucks West – CBW seems to be going for it on the 4x8; Fortna is deadly
3. Abington – they ran 8:01 so early; Train suggests they peaked, I don’t agree
4. Central Bucks East – well-rounded team with Brophy fresh; I am expecting a sub-8 time
5. Penn Wood – this sprint oriented team will look to push the pace early with Manyeah & Seck
6. Germantown Friends – GFS goes all in on the relays, but they don’t quite have the speed for me to get them to the top five. Looking for more from Dahl here, as Hepp had a breakout indoor campaign
7. Cardinal O’Hara – COH seems to always be in the mix, and whether Jones and Morro run their best in this race, or opt for a fresh DMR, I think they’ll remain in the mix
8. Bishop Shanahan – Shanahan has four guys who are at or under the 2 minute mark; if they all have their best day this weekend, I suspect they’ll be even higher.
Mile
1. Jaxson Hoey – with a seed time so far ahead of the competition, I’m very confident in Jax here.
2. Tucker Desko – Desko will certainly push the pace in the late laps of the mile, but I don’t think he can quite close like Jaxson will. That being said, he will provide excitement and will likely leave Penn State with a silver and a nice PB.
3. Josh Hoey – the middle Hoey boy has not made headlines this season the way his brother has, but I absolutely expect him to show up in peak form and push his brother and Desko for 1609 meters of fun.
4. Liam Galligan – Galligan is faster than most of the competition,
5. Colin Wills – Wills has wheels. I don’t know what that has to do with anything, I just like to think about it and say it. Sorry, inner Jon Gruden there. Anyway I expect Wills to be the 5th and final man under 4:20 in this race, just getting edged by Galligan in a 4:19.high effort.
6. Noah Falasco – Falasco has had a strong season, which I feel will culminate in a 6th place finish in the mile at states, a highly respectable finish. Look for big things from Falasco in the outdoor season. Perhaps a top 5 finish, even.
7. Connor McMenamin – While I thought McMenaminwas a 3k/XC guy, he busted out a 4:21 mile and proved me dead wrong. Connor, you’ve earned the right to be in the medal talks in my opinion.
8. Matt Scarpill – While his mile PR sits at 4:25, he has a 4:23 1600 to his credit and I think he is ready to dip down to 4:20-4:21 for this race. I initially had Kirshenbaum in this spot but I worry the 3k will be on his mind and his kick may not be as sharp as it could be; advantage, Scarpill.
800m
1. Domenic Peretta – future workout facility; 1:50 capabilities; he’s bringin’ it back to D7 for the first time since… ever?
2. Mike Kolor – Kolor may have been labeled the bridesmaid in my eyes this season in both the 800 and the mile, but he will put up a heck of a fight against Peretta; I am predicting them both to be somewhere in the 1:52.low range
3. Matt Wisner – Wisner has shown his kick at 800m and 1600m (DMR) to be quite lethal this season, and as a result I think he might nip a Jaxson Hoey who has a mile win under his belt already by this time. Still under 1:53, by my prediction.
4. Jaxson Hoey – I suspect he will just miss top three, but still PR and go under 1:53. I am hoping for, and expecting a fast race from the gun; this does not bode well for the only guy in my top 6 to be on his second event of the day.
5. Nick Wagner – Mr. Wagner has quietly been having an extremely strong indoor season without crashing headlines at venues like Yale, the Armory, and Dartmouth. I feel this strong season will culminate in an indoor 800m faster than any 800m he has ever run indoors or out.
6. Isaiah Bailey – Bailey is expected to push the pace early, and I am predicting he will hold on with a late surge for sixth.
7. Jake Good – Abington’s fastest 800m runner this season will be looking to score points complementing their elite relay crew; I suspect he will nab a couple here with a strong 1:55 like 800m performance.
8. David Fletcher – I’ll be honest; I know very little about David Fletcher, but Jarrett has been warning, promising, threatening, etc. that Fletcher is going to be in the mix, and I believe this is his not-so-dark horse medal pick; totally co-signing on Train’s wisdom here, but Fletcher is my eighth medalist, edging out Conway.
3000
1. Jake Brophy – this race belongs to Jake. Point blank. Hock and Henderson and Kujdych and Kirsh and whoever else wants to push the pace can do everything in their power, but Brophy is gonna match moves and then with 350m-550m to go, we’re going to see him move. His move will not be as pronounced as it could be, as he will likely have the 4x8 in his legs, and a DMR anchor leg soon to come, but he still takes home the gold in at least 8:32 (sub 9:10 3200m time)
2. Dominic Hockenbury – with all of that being said about Brophy, Hock will still give him a helluva run. If Brophy runs 8:32, expect Hock at 8:33. I might even go as far to say that if Brophy ran 8:22, I would see Hock at 8:23.
3. Rusty Kujdych – this may or may not be a surprise pick this high, but I really liked what I saw from Rusty this season. Each time the bar has been raised, he has stepped up to the challenge and steadily improved his fitness and his times. Sub-8:40 is surely in the cards at this position for him if he hangs in like I predict.
4. Jeff Kirshenbaum – for a short time this season, I thought Kirsh was gonna be the guy to give Brophy a run. 9:19 for full 2 miles fairly early in the season is good for about 8:40 effort, and shows what a danger this guy can be; however, I have not seen a ton since, and am skeptical of putting him in the top three. This could surely be a rookie mistake on my part; I am still expecting him to dip under 8:40, along with the rest of the top six.
5. Nathan Henderson – Henderson had an extremely strong XC season, and has brought his indoor season together at what I feel is the perfect time; I say he edges Wolk in the last 75 meters to nab a top five spot.
6. Nick Wolk,
7. Will Loevner,
8. Marc Migliozzi – While none of my next three guys are from the almighty District 1, but instead from the arcane western half of the state, each of them had extremely strong XC seasons, and quietly improved throughout the winter months. I predict Wolk will get edged by Kirsh and Henderson in the last lap, but he’ll still run his way to a strong 3k time. Loevner and Migliozzi got rave reviews from Train & Co. all XC season, but I had very little opportunity to learn about their abilities and tendencies on the track. Each runner peaked at the perfect time, but I had trouble ranking them above guys I felt I knew more about. Sorry Pittsburgh boys…
DMR
1. Germantown Friends – this is where putting your eggs in the relay basket pays off. I am hoping that Heppgoes bananas and hands off in an extremely fast 1200 time, perhaps 3:03 or 3:04. The DMR is my favorite race, and I think GFS has 4 pieces who fit well in each distance. Who is gonna catch Dahl anyway?!
2. Central Bucks West – CBW is a team I have really bought into this season, and Rock Fortna is a guy who I think could remain hot on Dahl’s heels. He is a gutsy runner, with a 1:54 4x800 split to his name. If Claricurzio can produce a 1200 leg that keeps them close to Hepp, and eventually Dahl, I think Fortna can hold off Tucker Desko, run a PR split, and finish just off Dahl in low 10:20’s.
3. Pennridge – Tucker Desko will, according to my predictions, be coming off a phenomenal mile race (around 4:15) where he earned a state silver. He will still run a strong race around 4:20, but the efforts for gold from Eissler, Howell, Espinal, and Desko will be all for not, as their 10:25 time will not quite be enough today.
4. Central Bucks East – Brophy enters this event on his third event of the day, a true distance triple at states. He will have logged over 5000m at state champion caliber speeds, and as deep as this D-Med team is, I feel that Dahl, Fortna, and Desko will be better for the race at this point in the day. Look for CBE to crush a relay at NBIN, though. (Sub 7:50 or sub 10:15)
5. Cardinal O’Hara –Rob Morro brings 4:23 speed with great guts, & sub-2 leg Justin Jones will try to close any gaps so that Morro gets the baton with the lead pack.
6. State College – coming off a state record performance, I feel they may falter in this race
7. Carlisle – Wisner will be chasing from the start; look for fast early fractions and a strong split from him as they snag a couple points here
8. Neshaminy – Sean Conway has got great mid-D wheels and hopefully Kujdych can hang 33’s across the board for a 4:25 like DMR split
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