TFCAofGP MOCs OK

By Jarrett Felix

With all the well-deserved Millrose buzz, it could be easy to miss the recent release of the performance list for the 51^st TFCAofGP Meet of Champions this Saturday. But, alas, I did not and, therefore, I feel obligated to type up this little preview discussing it.

You can check out the performance list here, but I’ll try to provide a little extra pizazz besides the names and the times. I’m going to adopt the swimming pool strategy and jump right in. The action in order of events ….

DMR

A few of the top seeds scratched here (most notably Pennridge), but many of the other top teams from the TFCAofGP regular season decided to put a team in some shape or form on the track. The question becomes which teams will be going all out as opposed to running a “B” team. Out of the top 10 teams, I’m speculating that CB West, CR South and Abington won’t be throwing out “A” teams. The reasoning? I think CB West should feel comfortable with a 10:32 seed time to qualify for states and would probably rather keep their key individuals fresh for the open events (Fortna in the 8 along with Claricurzio, Iatarola in the 3k). CR South has Joe Maguire and Evan Kutney entered in open events and both guys are fighting for state qualifying spots. Their spot at states is not a lock by any means so who knows, but I think they are comfortable taking a chance on their relay advancing considering they are 6 seconds under the SQG. As for Abington, I just don’t think the DMR is on their priorities list. I think 4x8, 4x4 and open 4s/8s are there primary concerns.

So who does that leave? Possibly the LaSalle explorers who clocked a blazing 10:42 time back at the beginning of the month and have been quiet since. LaSalle seems like potent contenders for the state title in the DMR (again) so they might work to sure up the line up is in order. That being said, the tradition at this meet for LaSalle has been to run a completely fresh 4x8 at the end of the meet. I think they’ve done that almost every year for the last half decade (although I’m completely speculating here).

That leaves a few other intriguing teams. Neshaminy has run a ton of strong DMRs this year, recently adding a 10:40.90 last weekend. I’d be stunned if that’s not fast enough to get to states, so there is no need to run another DMR this weekend. However, I don’t see Kujdych or Conway in either open event so the team is either gearing up for a fresh 4x8 or throwing down the “A” squad at this meet. It’s also looking more and more like Neshaminy will go all in on this DMR come states.

Then you have a monster pack of sub 11 teams. Currently PA has 27 teams under 11 minutes in the DMR and 18 of them are entered in this race (if I can count, which is not one of my most marketable skills). Of that 18, we have 10 teams that are very much bubble squads, running between 10:58 and 10:44. I’d bet all the borderline teams like Bonner, O’Hara, CR North, East, Cheltenham and Penncrest will be gunning hard for a time in the low 10:40s in this one. HG Prep may also throw their hat in the ring if they don’t feel comfortable with their 10:44 time on a banked track at Varsity Classic. Bonner pulled out a huge day at this meet last year and could be in line to do it again. O’Hara is the defending state champs and historically loves to stack the DMR at this meet. Those PCL squads head up my sleepers.

But don’t forget about someone like CB East (Jake Brophy is not entered in any individual events and will likely run both relays like he did last year). Lower Merion and Boyertown have each done some strong running this year. Bishop Shanahan could play in this one as well, considering they are pretty comfortable in the 4x8 seeds as things stand. CB South is one final lurking sleeper, although they have Scarpill entered in the open mile so who knows what their intentions are. But keep in mind CB South has an excellent historical resume in the DMR. They’ve been fantastic at pulling together the right pieces, especially at 1200m.

One more intriguing wrench to throw in there. Will they have two heats of this? That could really add to the state qualifying drama. Or if they have one heat, how crowded is that going to be?

Mile

Connor McMenamin comes in as perhaps a surprising #1 seed, considering his seed time is just 23^rd in PA right now, but McMenamin is a quietly having a beastly year in this event. He’s gotten some big wins on slower tracks (i.e. not New York) and, even though he’s a proven long distance guy, has flashed nice speed all the way down to 800m. But McMenamin’s speed will certainly be tested in this one as Tucker Desko, the 1:54 man from Pennridge, will be racing what may end up being his final mile of the winter. Desko ran 4:20 all the way back on January 9^th, winning his section at the Armory, and all signs indicate he has only gotten stronger since then. He ran 1:54 and 8:51 for 3k in recent weeks and likely anchored Pennridge to one of the top DMR times in the state last weekend.

I’d slot Desko as the big favorite as of now, but I’m very interested to see who his biggest challenger ends up being. It could be Joe Maguire, who just crushed his last race at 3,000m and has extra incentive to get a fast time here so that he can be better rested for CR South’s DMR. Liam Conway, the sophomore sensation from Owen J Roberts, has run state qualifying times in the 800 up through the 3k and has his pick of events for the state championship. He certainly could be a factor at the front of this field. Patrick Donahue and Matt Scarpill are both sub 4:30 milers, but it’s unclear if they will be trying for a very quick turnaround from the DMR. PJ Murray is an experienced miler who has already run 4:30 or faster maybe 5 or 6 times this winter. Noah Falasco just ran a 4:28 of his own last weekend.

As sleepers, I like James Abrahams from Haverford to potentially contend for a sub 4:30 mark. He had a strong cross showing and has good 800 speed to pair with that strength. Eddie Goebel is fresh off a 9 flat 3k and has run in the low 4:30s for the mile. I’m a little surprised to see him slated for both the mile and 3k this weekend, so who knows where his true focus lies, but I’d think he would want to maximize his individual state odds by giving both events his full effort.

Worth noting, I currently have the state qualifying cut off projected to be an absurd 4:27.87 banked right now. And, in theory, that time will only get faster after the dust settles this weekend.

800m

The 800m is potentially the most loaded race of the day. Rock Fortna of CB West leads the entries and I’m speculating he will be completely fresh in this one. Fortna has done a great job on relay duty for most of this year, but has been relatively quiet in both the mile and the 800 compared to some of the bigger stars. I think he could make a real statement with an 800 win and perhaps do enough to warrant inclusion in the open 8 at states rather than the relay double.

To face him, the TFCAofGP has assembled quite a group of talent. Quakertown has two top tier contenders in Wolfinger and Delisle. Delisle is especially interesting as he appears to be on a sick ascent. As just a sophomore, he cracked 2 minutes on Glenn Mills track beating Jason Weller’s meet record. Not too shabby. Fortna’s teammate Jake Claricurzio could also play a factor here, hoping to help West make a statement about their 4x8 title shot (I feel like they are often forgotten about). Also don’t forget about Jake Good and Dennis Manyeah. They have run 1:57 and 1:56 this year respectively, but will likely have to try and win this thing out of one of the slower sections.

Colin Wills is an interesting watch this weekend. Just remember, last year Malvern Prep’s Billy McDevitt, thought of as mainly a miler at the time, dropped a 1:55 and beat Alek Sauer to win the Meet of Champs 800. Maybe Wills is in line for a similar break through? He’s already topped McDevitt’s mile time running 4:20.09. Stephen McClellan and Kamil Jihad are two of the most talented guys in this event by outdoor PR, but they need to drop a couple ticks to cement a state qualifying spot this weekend. They have run 1:54 and 1:55 in the open outdoors (and that was as a soph and a frosh no less) so if either catches the right flyer this weekend they could do something special.

Overall, this race looks like the slower heats could be just as stacked as the faster ones, especially if there is a guy or two willing to take things out hard. I’ve left out a lot of really fast dudes despite talking about a lot of really fast dudes. Sub two guys are lurking around every corner so now the question becomes, who will jump out and scream boo.

Sorry, not my best metaphor.

3,000m

Usually the 3k isn’t crazy fast at this meet considering any state caliber guy would then have to run the 3k back to back weeks at MoCs and states (although it has been done). As a result, no sub 9 guys (by TFCAofGP best) are entered in this one. Of course that doesn’t mean this is gonna be slow. Heading the field is Brian Iatarola from CB West, who ran his 9:05 seed time all the way back in December. Since then, he’s showcased some nice speed at the under distances, but yet to really get the right opportunity at an SQG. Considering when he ran that 9:05 he finished right next to guys like Joe Maguire (who is now an 8:52 guy), I think Iatarola could have a big day, break 9 and put himself in the state mix. But the 3k is a long grueling event and a lot can happen.

Iatarola will have some local competition to fuel him on the track as CB East’s Josh Goetz is also one of the top seeds, having just run 9:06. Goetz had an excellent XC season and was a huge part of how CB East qualified for states (and placed in the top 10). He could potentially be a 1200 leg at states for their DMR, but I’m betting he wants a shot at an individual 3k run if he gets to PSU. CB East had a nice showing in this 3k last year (and I believe Goetz was a part of that) and they could carry that momentum through to 2016.

Matt D’Aquila from Lower Merion crushed his last 3,000m attempt, running 9:05 for a big win. With the right competition, he may have the ability to close in on sub 9. Eddie Goebel ran 9:00.00 last weekend so there’s no doubt he could get under if things go his way (although he will be on the double).  Two of my favorite sleepers for the title here are Jakob Jorgensen and Jack Carmody. They had a memorable duel at 3,000m at Glenn Mills and both ran 9:07. I think they have a ton of room to drop. Both are also coming off arguably slightly disappointing races and should be hungry to throw down. Sometimes that extra motivation is the difference maker.

Don’t forget about Joe Previdi of Masterman. He was the 3^rd place finisher at A states in XC and is looking to follow in the footsteps of graduated teammate Julian Degroot-Lutzner, who I believe crushed a sub 9 run at this meet last year. The 3k is Previdi’s best shot to advance through to PSU and he is not taking any chances, focusing all his attention on the event. One other sleeper worth noting is Will Griffen. He’s run some killer 2 miles and now, if he gets the shot, could do nice work without the extra lap and 18 meters.

4x800m

A bit of late meet shenanigans is pretty common in the 4x8. Some teams will double back from the DMR or individual events but others will save up all day and take a shot at a fast time. Like what about a GFS or a Perk Valley who has no other notable entries in this one. What’s their plan? GFS could be trying to give their B squad one more shot at an SQG seeing as Dahl is up at Millrose. Perk Valley, meanwhile, has it’s back against the wall after an onslaught of 8:15ish teams jumped them at Last Chance. The same is true for someone like Upper Dublin who sits at 8:17 like PV although they have individuals and a DMR entered. They ran their 8:17 in a winning effort at Glenn Mills so there’s nice upside here.

Speaking of those 8:15ish teams, CR North, Pennsbury and DT East are all entered here, trying to keep ahead of the others in a tight battle for the final qualifying spots. North Penn is entered, but seeded back at 8:45 and seems like they will focus on other events for this meet. While not a crazy strategy, keep in mind their 8:15.06 is only 12^th in PA right now with not a lot of scratches projected ahead of them and a ton of teams nipping at their heels.

As I said earlier, LaSalle has a nice history of going fresh for the 4x8 at this meet, but I also can’t help but notice they have a seed at 8:36. I’m fairly certain they ran an 8:09 earlier this year at a TFCAofGP meet so maybe this is a tactic and they are running a “B” squad? Or they want to try and run fast from the slow heat as they have also been known to do at this meet? Or maybe I’m just remembering that 8:09 wrong. Bishop Shanahan has never met a 4x8 they didn’t like. Wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they come into this meet hoping to make a statement win in the 4x8 for a little extra confidence prior to states. And CB West, even on the double from individual events, could still potentially win this thing. They’ve done it before at meets like Burdette and Lawerenceville, although this is a deceivingly tight schedule of events.

Some other teams of note in this one include squads like CR South (lots of pieces doubling, but a really good DMR team), Neshaminy (possibly saving up for this one?) and Chesnut Hill (feels like they could be sitting on a big breakthrough race). Then of course there are the obvious favorites like Abington, Pennridge and CB East who all may go after this thing full force. Of that group, Pennridge seems to be pretty fresh with the exception of Desko and might be my tentative early pick for the win. They need the momentum heading into states (they’ve only run 8:12 this year which is a decent chunk behind the other contenders).

Keep an eye out for the Haverford School, Upper Darby and Penncrest who all have a knack for piecing together a 4x8. None of these schools are really in the state qualifying discussion as things currently stand, but given their history would it really be shocking if they dropped a crazy amount of time this weekend? I think not.