State Predictions: 800m

by Jarrett Felix

800m

Heat 1:

Matt Kraus, William Tennent

Peter Cooke, Radnor

Joseph Angelina, Penncrest

Andy Harman, Wissahickon

Stephen McClellan, St. Joe’s Prep

Joe Cullen, Wyomissing

Michael Bove, Fox Chapel

Ryan Thrush, Brookville

It’s not unheard of for a runner from this heat to snatch a medal, but it is certainly difficult. There has to be someone gutsy enough to get it out in 56ish and then there has to be someone good enough to hang on. The good news is, there are a lot of talented guys in this field. Stephen McClellan and Michael Bove have each run under 1:56 in their careers (last outdoors) and would be smart candidates to pick for an upset here. Joe Cullen of Wyomissing is experienced on the big stage, having run on a state championship 4x8 during his senior season. Joe Angelina comes from a Penncrest program that has done this sort of thing before: Tres Moore finished in the top 4 overall from one of the slower sections in 2010. Then you have Peter Cooke of Radnor who could become the third 1:56 man from his school in the past couple seasons and Matt Kraus of Tennent whose brother (I think) was a medalist at this very same meet in this very same event! (And Ryan Thrush of Brookville who has 50 point speed, but is trying the really hard 4-8 double).

Ultimately, I don’t see any of these guys slipping into the medals, but I definitely don’t think it’s impossible.

Heat 2:

Sean Conway, Neshaminy

David Fletcher, Mt Caramel

Jake Good, Abington

Charlie Scales, The Haverford School

Cooper Leslie, Camp Hill

Jack Armand, Garnet Valley

Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti

Hudson Delisle, Quakertown

Considering there are only 8 runners in the fast heat, there’s a very high probability someone from this heat leaves with hardware. Actually, the 800 has produced it’s fair share of winners at the state championships in the last decade, so one of these guys could even leave with gold, silver or bronze if things break right. A couple guys will be doubling from this group (Leslie off the mile, Jihad off the 4, Good off the 4x8) which will make things difficult for both. The 4-8 double is really hard as I witnessed first hand with my teammate Sam Ellison in 2010, but to be fair, Jihad pulled it off pretty well at PCLs earlier this year. But I’m always nervous picking doublers at states, where everyone is bring their “A” game and the events take so much out of you physically and emotionally.

Jack Armand’s 1:58.39 PR came when he won the slower section at Ocean Breeze and I doubt he’s forgotten that race. He will look to duplicate the performance in this one. But the top two seeds will give him a real run for his money. I’ve gone on record already saying that I think both Sean Conway and David Fletcher have really good medal odds and I stand by that point. Fletcher is a dynamite championship racer and held his own on this track already this winter against Desko, running 1:57. Meanwhile, Conway has been super quiet in the open events since running a 1:58 flat track at Lehigh (a lot faster of a performance than it might sound). Conway has killer 400 speed but has really impressed me with his ability to build strength this year in the upper events. I’m very high on both these guys.

Scales and Delisle both have run under two minutes this year, with Delisle’s coming at Glenn Mills (where he broke Jason Weller’s meet record). Hudson is just a sophomore as well who has the guidance of teammate Brett Wolfinger in this one. Scales is a bit inexperienced on the state scene, but the Haverford School has produced its share of indoor state medalists in the mid distances with Tom Hopkins and Lucas Elek.

Heat 3:

Mike Kolor, Seneca Valley

Domenic Peretta, Beaver Falls

Jaxson Hoey, DT West

Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford

Matt Wisner, Carlisle

Isaiah Bailey, Penn Hills

Colin Wills, Malvern Prep

Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown

I think this might end up the race of the day. Maybe not the fastest time, but I think it will be the most exciting race of the day with the tightest finish. I don’t expect things to turn tactical here so odds are the first couple places overall will come from this fast heat. The top five seeds are all within 1.87 seconds and all of the top three have run at least 1:53 (Kolor just doing it for the first time this past weekend).

Personally, my favorite runners are often the guys who come from the back and use a big kick to win championships like Symmonds or Robby Andrews. I feel like often times that can be an effective strategy. However, if you look at some of the recent state champs, they have won it using a front running strategy. Last year it was John Lewis, before that it was Kyle Francis who ran the legs out of Jeff Wiseman indoors. In 2013, Brad Rivera ran from the front and outlasted Wiseman, Logue and Sanders. In 2012 400-800 runner Haneef Hardy defeated Holder, Stone and Horgan (who also liked to get out hard).

But on the flip side, in 2011, 2010 and 2009 Endress, Lefebure and Mallon all kicked their way to the state title after getting dragged through at a fast early pace. So I suppose there’s no fool proof way to win a state title.

If Hoey wins both, he will be the first to pull of the double since Wade Endress pulled it out in 2011 (ironically Endress did the mile, 8, 4x4 triple that Hoey is projected). It’s not impossible considering that 2011 field was a pretty stacked group that reminds me a bit of the crowded foursome out front in this race. And we saw Sam Ritz pull off one of the greatest distance doubles ever just last year, dropping 4:09 and 1:51 times. But how do Hoey’s doubling abilities stack up? That’s the tricky question. Endress was already a very proven doubler in 2011, arguably one of the greatest of all time. Hoey, on the other hand, doesn’t have an extensive resume of doubling. He had a solid 1200 leg off the mile as a sophomore in 2013, but that was two years ago with more rest. The potential good news is, Hoey might be able to save a little something in the open mile considering his massive advantage in the seeding.

All that being said, I’ve got Hoey outside my hypothetical top 3. A potentially foolish choice, but I like the fresh, focused trio of Wisner, Kolor and Peretta (with all due respect to Nick Wagner who has had a terrific season). What’s crazy is a D3 male hasn’t won the 800m indoors since 2006. A D7 male hasn’t won the 800m indoors since …. I honestly don’t know. It seems like we might be due for one of those.

Peretta is the most talented of this bunch in my opinion and his PRs back it up. He’s run 1:51 and the 4:11, plus he has a terrific four state championships on his resume already. Dom also committed to PSU recently and, in his first ever indoor season, could potentially bring home the gold on his future home track. That’s a sweet little bit of extra motivation. Some might argue that Peretta’s state championships aren’t as valuable, considering they have come against AA competition. But keep in mind Peretta has defeated Kolor straight up as recently as the Baldwin Invitational (in the mile) and ran faster than Kolor in the open 800m from a slower section out west.

But Kolor has been close to unstoppable this year. He ran a trio of 1:55ish type marks before uncorking an unthinkable 1:53.82 at Edinboro. That’s crazy for a track with such odd lap splits and it’s apparently a meet record. I can’t remember exactly what Graca ran a year ago at Edinboro (I know he miscounted his laps in one meet), but I’m pretty positive Kolor has run at least a couple seconds ahead of his PRs on that track: and Graca ran 1:50 at states. Kolor gave up the mile to focus his attention solely on this event, so clearly he is focused and confident. One last fact to keep in mind, in that match up where Peretta bested Kolor from the slower section, I believe Kolor was on the double from a 1:54 split on SV’s 8:11 4x800m.

Then there’s the D3 stand out, Matt Wisner. Wisner is very strong tactically and he has a fantastic kick, but he struggled to hang with the unthinkable pace set last outdoors at states (although he hung tough and ran 1:53.18 for 5^th). He’s taken big steps forward this year, dropping a 50 second 400m at SC (where it looks like his win streak was just barely ended by Everidge). If this race is won in 1:51 or faster, can Wisner cut another 3 seconds off his indoor PR? That’s the big question. To me, winning races is more important than clocking the gawky PRs.

As mentioned, Nick Wagner has had an excellent year. He has not quite been able to sneak past Peretta or Kolor, but he’s been nipping at their heels all season, producing some sick times including his 1:55.16. Keep in mind Wagner ran 1:53 last summer as a sophomore when he was fully healthy and in top form. He’s also got excellent 400m speed that would help feel comfortable after a quick start. That quick start could end up being provided by someone like Brett Wolfinger of Quakertown. He has led early against Hoey and Kolor in the past and holds a 1:57.22 season best, very quick stuff. Wolfinger had one of his best races of the indoor season last year at this meet. Isaiah Bailey of Penn Hills had a big breakthrough this past weekend, running in the blazing fast race at Edinboro. I believe Bailey is the younger brother of Wil Bailey, the 1:51 outdoor state champion from Penn Hills. Isaiah is still just a junior, but is already showing signs of brilliance following his 1:56 last outdoors. Colin Wills of Malvern Prep will round out the hot heat, trying to hang tough on the double from the mile. That’s a very tricky double, especially if he has a breakthrough in the mile or takes on early pacing duties.

I think if you ran this race four times, you could very well have four different winners. That’s how tight I expect this one to be. So how do I figure out which roll the dice will land on? Also, if you are looking for a bold prediction: somebody completely unexpected will take 8^th place in this one. No idea who, but people will be asking “who’s that guy” when they look at results. Here’s my best guess ….

1.      Matt Wisner 1:52.05

2.      Mike Kolor 1:52.30

3.      Domenic Peretta 1:52.81

4.      Nick Wagner 1:54.09

5.      Jaxson Hoey 1:54.62

6.      David Fletcher 1:55.11

7.      Sean Conway 1:55.98

8.      Jack Armand 1:56.67