Ryan CarniVall .... Not Your Best Work, Ian

By Jarrett Felix

You know we are getting into prime time when you are allowed to wear spikes at Lehigh. It started with the TFCAofGP Meet this past weekend and now things will ramp up another notch when the PTFCA takes over this coming weekend. The meet is set up to be something of a state meet preview (it has the same order of events, not necessarily the same level of talent) and should give teams a chance to size up any doubling ideas they may have for PSU. It also, unsurprisingly, will give us a look at some of the best talents in PA distance running. I gave a rough stab at a preview below, listing things in order of events.

Don’t trust me? Prefer the penntrack version? You can catch the full list of accepted entries by clicking here.

Also, I'll be referencing the state cut-offs a lot based on my own personal projections. So if you are in to that sort of thing, here's a look at where I currently project the state cut offs to be. Feel free to use your own intuition to guess at the cut offs yourself.

4x800m

The relays don’t have names listed and, to further complicate things, the 4x8 is now first in the order, meaning you have even less of a chance of guessing which teams will size up an Ed Sheeran style “A” team on Saturday. Some of the top teams by season best include Abington, Easton, Germantown Friends, Penn Wood, Perkiomen Valley and State College. All these teams have key pieces slated to run later in the meet and a few of them (GFS, Perk Valley and Penn Wood) just ran huge 4x8s last weekend. Out of those three, however, Perk Valley has the most to gain by throwing out an “A” squad this weekend. They are very much on the state bubble and might want to take as many chances as they can to push their seed down to make sure they aren’t bumped out at the last minute. Of course they will have Last Chance and MoCs to do it as well. Worth noting, GFS doesn’t have Dahl entered in any individual events and they aren’t in the DMR either. Could mean a fast relay, could mean they are keeping things chill before Millrose. I lean towards the later.

Easton could be a real sleeper here. They have run in the low 8:30s this year and have yet to take a shot at the relay in a fast meet on a fast track. Kraus had one of his best races of the season last weekend and Lapsansky is a proven stud (although his specialty appears to be long distance skewed).

Also in the mix could be teams like Harriton, Owen J Roberts, Spring Ford and Boyertown. Owen J Roberts and Boyertown seem like intriguing bets in this one. Owen J is not in the DMR later so this relay would be there focus (same is true for Boyertown). Boyertown has a nice history in the relays and has put together a nice young team with upside. I’m thinking Spring Ford ends up in the DMR later in the day so my bet is they don’t throw down in event one. A few other intriguing entries include Wyomissing, Unionville, Radnor and West Chester East. Wyomissing doesn’t have DiCintio or Cullen entered in any individual events (unless I missed them) and is the defending state champs in this event for AA. However, we haven’t seen DiCintio in an open event since December so hopefully he is healthy. Radnor has a sub two talent in Cooke and Unionville has a sub 4:30 miler (although I think Unionville may be leaning DMR this weekend). East is intriguing after their 10:53 DMR, but I don’t know how their distance legs translate speed wise. Would be fun to find out.

Mile

Currently, the mile is absolutely loaded in the great state of PA. All signs indicate it will take sub 4:30 to get into the state meet and quite a bit quicker to secure a spot in the fast heat. This heat will feature a variety of runners trying to either move into qualifying position or improve their seeding to run second at PSU. And of course there will be the guys like me just trying to get out there and run a strong race and PR. Shout out to those guys.

Here’s a crop of guys who I’d characterize around the state championship “bubble”: Noah Falasco, Patrick Donahue, and Ryan Paradise. Falasco ran 4:32 in a big early season run, but has been quiet at this distance since. Donahue and Paradise are fresh off impressive runs under the 4:30 barrier, but in this competitive bunch, no time seems safe. One of these guys could be sitting on a breakthrough performance in this marquee invitational. Falasco might be my pick as the other two have had plenty of races at this distance already under their belt.

Now speaking of breakout performances, there is a nice contingent of talent hoping to do just that on Saturday. This group includes guys like Will Alpaugh of Freedom, Jack Carmody of Rustin, Jesse Cruise of Cedar Crest, Sam Signor of East Pennsboro, Owen Ritz of GA, Jack Zardecki of Dallas, Nate Becker of Ephrata and Jeff Montgomery of Perkiomen Valley (among others believe it or not). All of these guys are mid to low 4:30s right now, but many have lacked the right opportunity to make that drop under the state guidelines. I really like what I’ve seen in Carmody’s last couple races, both sandwiching this distance, and think he could make serious noise. Alpaugh is one of the biggest talents in this group with low 4:20s ability and his best XC season to date in his rear view mirror (an object closer than it may appear). Cruise is a strong candidate for a nice run (he’s run low 4:20s as well), although I think of him more as an 800m specialist and would have been curious to see him focus there (he’s currently slated to double). Signor is coming off a serious sounding surgery apparently (via penntrack’s nice write up on Susquehanna), but he looked phenomenal in his return last time out.

But despite a couple sizable paragraphs, I likely haven’t mentioned the race’s gold medalist thus far in my preview. I’d bet that honor will go to one of Jeff Kirshenbaum, Alex Milligan or Cooper Leslie. I’d say Leslie has the most consistent resume to date at this distance with a variety of runs in the front of competitive fields, including his own low 4:20s mark this year. But Kirshenbaum is coming off a jaw-dropping 9:19 mark in the 2 mile to assert himself as an early title contender in the event. Plus, Kirsh has a bit of extra motivation at Lehigh. Last time he competed in a big invite here (Burdette), he ended up being out lasted in the mile and finished out of the medals. This time he will look for a little revenge.

But Milligan, assuming he won’t be in the 4x8, could be the game changer. He’s got excellent speed (1:53 split last outdoors), a strong win under his belt (Kevin Dare) and a 4:17 PR for 1600m (last outdoors, on the double from the 4x8). I still don’t have a read on whether Milligan will try the 4x8-Mile double this year indoors, but he has proven he is capable of pulling off similar doubles. And if he gets a win in a low 4:20s kind of time, SC will have to consider trying to maximize their points with Milligan competing for a medal at states. Or putting him on the anchor leg of a dangerous DMR to close things out in front of the home crowd fans.

Of course they have a 4x4 to worry about that overlaps with the DMR guys so I mean, I don’t know. This guessing thing is hard guys. Just everybody shoot me a text about what you are running at states? Thanks.

800m

The 800 meter state cut off is headed down near 2 flat and the list of 1:54-1:55 type guys is steadily rising. So what does that mean for this 800m show down? Hopefully he means some fast times. Although guys like Matt Wisner and Grayson Hepp are slated to cut this distance in half this weekend (i.e. the 400 for those not interested in doing math), there is still a strong crop of lead runners in this event. David Fletcher of Mount Caramel, who ran 1:57 at Kevin Dare, is likely the favorite after the aforementioned Kevin Dare performance. He also dominated his section of the 800 meters at this meet a year ago so he has some good experience on the Lehigh oval.

But Penn Wood’s Dennis Manyeah, who hasn’t raced a marquee open 800m since December’s 1:56, is lurking as a challenger for the title. Manyeah is fresh off an excellent lead off leg at the Armory (some say 1:51 split, official results have it slotted at 1:58) and, in case you forgot, beat 4:18/1:55 man Mike Kolor the last time he took the track for an open 8, one of the best scalps you can take (sorry if the word “scalps” is a little much, but it’s the official track term). Manyeah has been forgotten about with fast times by Hoey, Desko, Peretta, Kolor, Wisner, Wagner … can you see how he may get overlooked? But he can remind everyone just how fast he is with a big win at Lehigh, on a flat track no less.

James Abrahams from Haverford (sub 16 and sub 2 in the last 12 months), Liam Conway form Owen J Roberts (sub 9 down to to 2 flat range), Tony Degleris of State College (1:56 split last outdoors) and Jonnie Plass (2:02 man for GFS) are all guys who could potentially run close to the two minute barrier and have established themselves well thus far this indoor season. Of course we also have guys like Matt Town (1:57 open last year), Calvin Schneck of Whitehall and Greg Jaindl of Emmaus (excellent District 11 mid-distance guys). Keep an eye on Luke Everidge of CD East. He’s my sleeper pick in this one. He has great wheels and could potentially have the strength to drop a big time at this point in the year.

If anyone is going to topple Fletcher or Manyeah, it might be Abington sophomore Cameron Mitchell. He ran 1:59 at Glenn Mills recently and has a little extra fire after the team’s 8:09 at the Armory last weekend.

Jeff Kirshenbaum of Methacton is slated to double back as is Jesse Cruise of Cedar Crest/ Chris Hershberger of Ephrata is not doubling back, but I haven’t mentioned him yet and he’s good at running the 800 so he earns a mention in this paragraph as well.

3,000m

I’m not sure of the exact wording (and after nearly 1800 words in this post, I’m not about to go check), but I believe in my weekly recap I hoped that the guys from the Wyomissing Challenge would get a chance at a bit faster of a track before the season was over. Well guess what? Almost the exact same field (no Kent Hall) is lining up at Lehigh with a few extra fun pieces, ready to chase down some fast times. Honestly, this field might be my favorite one of the day.

5^th place finisher from the XC state meet Nathan Henderson will look to better his terrific 8:57 victory from Kutztown against this loaded field. I believe Nate is undefeated on the year (2016), but he has yet to face a field quite as stacked as this one. Seth Slavin and Liam Galligan, both ahead of Henderson on the PTFCA standings, will toe the line hoping to break Henderson’s winning streak in addition to guys like Zach Lefever and Kevin Lapsansky who are looking for revenge after their run at Kutztown. I like Lefever as a sleeper pick in this one as he continues to round into top form after what I believe was appendicitis to close out XC.

This field will also include some bubble contenders for states like Rob Moser (9:03 at Yale), Connor McMenamin (9:03 at Burdette, but just ran a strong mile at Lehigh in a statement run) and Jakob Jorgensen (9:07 victory at Glenn Mills to earn the meet record). McMenamin seems like the best bet for a big drop in this race, but Jorgensen has been really impressive as of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him click under 9 minutes if things break right.

Two District two runners could be the biggest wildcards in this field. The first is Jacob Toczko of Tunkhannock. Toczko rocked a very quick 3k at the end of last indoor season (in the low 9 minute range) and trained with state medalist Jack Tidball a year ago. Tunkhannock has produced two medalists in the 3k already in recent years and Toczko could be a sleeper pick for #3. Also worth keeping an eye on is Matt Kravitz of North Pocono. This kid is a tremendous talent who has run around 4:17 for 1600m and broke 16 minutes at Hershey this fall. The last time he was on site at Lehigh, Kravitz finished 2^nd at Paul Short, earning top PA finisher honors. I believe he just committed to Lehigh for next fall which means he will have a little extra motivation to run a huge race here.

The 3k is quite wide open right now in my opinion, although Dahl, Brophy and Kirshenbaum have made names for themselves, at least one of those guys could easily end up a scratch. And the last few medals spots are anything but decided. Liam Galligan, who is fresh off a 4:19 mile, will have a chance to assert himself in the title discussions if things break right this weekend. But Henderson, Slavin and maybe Kravitz (who knows where his fitness is?) will be legit challengers. If Kravitz wins this one, be sure to look up Bobby Micikas in the history books. Then tell me if the comparison seems logical.

By the way, Jacob McKenna, Jacob Underwood vs. Dan Filler, Dan Kyvelos who will win the battle of the names? Did that really make sense? No. But did those guys deserve a mention considering their excellent XC seasons and potential to shine in this 3k? Yes. So sometimes you gotta get inventive.

DMR

They kept the entries for the DMR small, so I have to imagine the teams slated to run it are at least leaning towards putting out fast squads. Abington has Smith and Mitchell in open events, but I didn’t see Jake Good or Keon Broadus, so that could mean the Ghosts are leaning towards a fast DMR. They haven’t really chased one since the opening weeks of the season when they crushed a sub 10:50 mark. They already have PA #1 in the 4x8 (3:19 last weekend) so there isn’t a huge need to save for that either if they would rather focus on this longer event.

Of course even a stacked Abington team will have their hands full in this one. Neshaminy, one of PA’s breakout teams in the relay, appears to putting all their chips in the pot for this event. No Rusty or Conway in any event that I noticed and those guys are likely the 12-16 punch on one of PA’s other sub 10:50 teams. I’m very excited to watch these guys race and I hope they get some nice push. They have to be in the conversation for All-State in this relay as things currently stand and I wouldn’t rule out even more. This is a strong team on the rise who, if they choose to go fresh again at states, will be a handful for the other top teams in PA. Keep an eye on their middle legs to see who steps up to help the team try and break 10:40.

Also keeping a fresh DMR for the afternoon is Cheltenham. The usual 4x4 powerhouse has transitioned brilliantly to the long stuff (perhaps using John Lewis’s success as a catalyst?) and has quietly put together an awesome team. They are well balanced with quality at all spots and some underrated talents like Crosby and Griffen will be key in this one. They broke 11 early on this year at the Armory, but now need to lower that mark to keep a spot on the starting line at states.

Then there are a couple very intriguing sleeper teams. It looks like Unionville, Spring Ford and Quakertown have all left their top two milers off the performance list in this one. That means they are likely loading up a team that could break 11. I think this Quakertown team has the potential to really kill. Wolfinger has already run 1:57 this indoors and Delisle just ran 1:59 at Glenn Mills to beat a record held by Jason Weller (for those of you who don’t know Jason Weller is really good at running). Those are two brilliant end legs for the Q, now it’s just a matter of piecing the rest together. Spring Ford as their own impressive duo of milers with Conner and Smith (also a senior and a sophomore) and Unionville will likely throw down DelVecchio and everybody’s new favorite runner Kent Hall.

Lurking just behind these teams in the spotlight will be Carlisle and State College. Actually, considering how much I have floated out the idea of a stacked Carlisle DMR, you guys probably will not consider them lurking below the radar, but all the same I will continue. Carlisle has never contested a relay at indoor states (at least in my memory), but this year’s team with the Wisner’s and Kole is more than capable. They are relatively fresh, with Matt only doing the 400 (harder double than you think actually) and could really run something fast if things break right. I wonder if they will anchor Wisner or lead him off? Either way it is going to be fun.

State College is running Milligan and Degleris in open events, but Nick Feffer is absent (Joey Feffer is in the 400). Hopefully Nick is healthy and racing (he ran 4:25ish at Kevin Dare and was likely a leg on their sick 4x8-4x4 double at Susquehanna) which would mean they want him fresh for a run at one of the relays. Maybe that means SC will go after a 4x8-4x4 double here, or maybe they will bring back Milligan and another guy to try and steal gold in the DMR. I’d love to see a Feffer-Wisner 1200m show down (check out some of their recent XC battles as back up) and I honestly feel like SC could be title contenders in both the 4x8 and the DMR if they focus all their energies on those two events. So getting a victory in a top flight invite would be a nice first step towards achieving that goal.

As Bane would say, “Let the games begin.” But also not yet because it’s only Monday.

PS 443,427 vs. 475,100