State Predictions: DMR

by Jarrett Felix

DMR

Just like the 4x8, let’s go through it team by team ….

Cheltenham

For the record, I do think this should be a 15 team field and Cheltenham should get in there. They earned it by time assuming I’m not messing up some math (they are just tenths behind Unionville). It’s a well balanced squad led by Will Griffen and would be a rare, completely fresh, squad in this field. Just throwing this little tid bit in there in case they get added in.

Seneca Valley

Luke Bellack 53.80i
Alex Dixon 2:05.34i/53.25
Seth Ketler 4:37.05i
Mike Kolor 4:15.00i/1:53.82i/4:12.37
Park Laughlin 52.95i
Jonathan Morgan 54.62

Projected Line Up: Ketler, Laughlin, Dixon, Kolor

With Seneca Valley getting a well-deserved spot in the state championships, thanks to a big win at the TSTCA Championships, we are looking at a very dangerous sleeper team. History tells us that to win a state title in the DMR you need to have a game changer on the anchor/1200. I’m talking state champion type talent. Seneca Valley is the arguably the only team that has that (although you can make strong cases for GFS and CB East among others). Kolor will be doubling, but he is racing only the 800 which should give him a little extra juice. And the kid has proven himself admirably as a doubler: he’s run multiple 1:55s on the double this year and clocked 1:54 on the double last outdoors. The question becomes, where will he get the stick? SV will lean on Seth Ketler, a freshman and super talented miler, to help lead the way in a pressure spot. A big leg out of him will likely set the tone for the race. If they keep it close for Mike, the 14 seed could potentially pull off a big time upset. When’s the last time a WPIAL team even placed in the top 3 in the DMR? Serious question. I can only remember Baldwin’s 4^th place finish in 2010 (but admittedly I haven’t thought about it that hard). Could be history in the making on Sunday.

Unionville

Michael Delvecchio 4:38.59i/4:25.02/2:04.52
Jeremy Do 54.74i
Kent Hall 2:05.93i/4:26.77i
Nick Lopapa 2:11.96i
Daniel Powers 51.92i/49.62

Projected Line Up: Delvecchio, Powers, Lopapa, Hall

I really liked the potential on this Unionville roster. Michael Delvecchio had a monster track season last spring, but missed a lot of XC (injured?) and ended up falling into the shadow of breakout star Kent Hall. But Delvecchio is a real animal on the track with low 4:20s speed and sub 9:40s strength. He and Hall make a great end leg one-two punch. Plus, assuming Powers goes on the 400, they have a sub 50 leg to lean on, which few teams will have. If Nick Lopapa can run a strong 800 leg (he should be in a great spot), then this team will be right in the mix when we get to the anchor leg. And that’s all you can ask.

CR South

Joe Maguire 8:52.08i/4:30.75i/4:23.29
Evan Kutney 2:01.60i
Andrew Zawodniak 4:46.69
Trenu Johnson 53.53i/51.60
Collin Ochs 2:06.93i
David Bleiman

Projected Line Up: Zawodniak, Johnson, Kutney, Maguire

CR South is back in the DMR for the second straight year. And, for the second straight year, they will line up a completely fresh relay and chase a state medal. Joe Maguire has been one of the strongest distance runners in the state this year, clocking a low 8:50s in the 3k at Last Chance. Evan Kutney is one of the more underrated 800m guys in the state, having run 2:01 for 800 so far indoors. It’s unclear if he will be on the 12 or the 8 (looks like the 8), but he’s a great relay piece. The key will be the 1200 leg, hopefully setting up 400 runner Trenu Johnson (a very solid sprinter) to get them in contention. That duty may fall to sophomore Andrew Zawodniak. He ran under 17 minutes in XC, a nice mark for a developing soph, but will he be ready for the big stage at states? Or will they lean on freshman Collin Ochs who has run a strong 2:06 in the 800m and maybe push Kutney up the 1200? There are a variety of interesting options for this team and it will be fun to see what they try to get themselves on the podium.

LaSalle

Brendan Price 2:09.39i/4:33.31i/2:01.09
Evan Addison 2:02.23i/4:29.98i
Frank Livolsi 2:05.60i/4:41.98i
Patrick Grant 2:03.06i/4:25.71i/1:57.50
Peter Nelson 51.06i
Greg Sywulak 54.20i

Projected Line Up: Grant, Nelson, Price, Addison

LaSalle will be back again after the 4x8, ready to chase a fast mark in perhaps their signature event. Patrick Grant should be one of the best 1200 meter talents in the race considering he has 1:57 speed and 4:25 indoor mile strength. Also, his 1:57 open 800m PR came on the double, so with plenty of time between relays, he should hopefully be able to handle the challenge. It’s unclear how guys like Price and Addison might handle the double, especially Addison who is just a sophomore. This actually probably would have been a nice spot for Eddie Goebel after he was denied the 3k entry (despite running the SQG). Worth noting, it looks like LaSalle will be getting stand out 400m runner Peter Nelson for this relay, although he will have the open 4 and the 4x2 under his belt already (and likely have the 4x4 left to race later). In theory LaSalle could be in the lead through 2 legs, but will the young guns be able to bring it home?

Neshaminy

Rusty Kujdych 8:48.60i/4:30.81i
Sean Conway 1:58.16i/4:36.87i
Josh Lehman 2:08.18i
Savion Hebron 23.19i
Liam Krimmel 2:09.52i/2:07.68
Mitchell Krzywonos

Projected Line Up: Conway, Hebron, Lehman, Kujdych

Neshaminy has really blossomed into a strong distance program. After qualifying for states in the 4x8 last year, the boys have returned to the distance relays, this time with the DMR. Rusty Kujdych is a monster for just a sophomore, but will be trying to make the quick turnaround from the 3,000m. There other top dog, 800m Sean Conway, will be doubling off the 800m. I expect both of these guys to have excellent individual performances, but that could make it even harder to double back. That puts some pressure on the middle legs, including freshman Savion Hebron at 400m. But if Conway is up for the double, he will be very tough to beat on the opening carry and sometimes a fast start is just what you need to revitalize and motivate your team.

State College

Owen Wing 1:59.3hi
Nick Feffer 1:56.36i (s)/4:25.29i/1:54s
Anthony Degleris 1:59.27i (s)/2:01.34i/1:56s
Alex Milligan 1:56.32i (s)/4:24.09i/1:53s/4:17.08
Joey Feffer 2:02.5h
Craig Hilliard 2:07.03i

Projected Line Up: N. Feffer, J. Feffer, Degleris, Milligan

If my prediction comes true, SC will be going for the double gold by the time the DMR rolls around. They might be feeling pretty good about their big win and they might even have a record under their belt. So will they still have the spark they need to chase a big win here in the DM? If they do, then they have just as strong a chance as anyone in this field. Alex Milligan has proven his doubling abilities already: he split 1:53 and then came back to run 4:17 on the 16 at outdoor states with a lot less time in between and a couple prelims in his legs. Plus, when SC was edged out by Carlisle at Carnival, Milligan was apparently not used on the line up. That gives them an extra x-factor, providing a little bit of confidence. Nick Feffer seems like he could be a perfect fit for the 1200 leg, but the team could also maybe rest Owen Wing in the 4x8 and instead use him on the 1200 (he’s run a couple of these and has some nice experience in the event). That would give Degleris the ability to run the open 4 and Feffer the chance to blast an 800. If SC has a 1:54 guy (by relay PR) running their 800 leg, they could make up a ton of ground. I don’t see any team with close to that kind of guy on that leg unless someone makes an odd line up choice. So why not double gold for the home team?

Carlisle
Matt Wisner 1:55.69i/1:53.18/4:21.65
Jack Wisner 2:02.39i/4:38.66i
Isaac Kole 2:03.24i/4:40.48
Mychael Thomas 24.39i
Jared Griffie 55.50i/24.49i/53.08
Ali Brown

Projected Line Up: J. Wisner, Griffie, Kole, M. Wisner

Carlisle beat State College at the Carnival with their qualifying performance and did so behind a killer anchor leg from Matt Wisner. Wisner’s got dynamite speed (he just ran 50 point in the quarter) but also has run 4:21 for 1600m. He’s a gutsy race who is perfect for chasing. And his other legs can definitely set him up. Jack Wisner, just a frosh, has run sub 4:40 and 2:02 this year. I repeat, just a frosh. If he can handle the bright lights (which he did at XC states when he was the top freshman in AAA), he could hang with a lot of guys lead off legs. Then it would be up to whoever they pick for 400 (looks like Griffie or Thomas) and then Isaac Kole (who’s run 2:03) to keep things tight for Wisner on the anchor. Unlike a lot of other top squads, Carlisle will only have Matt Wisner doubling and won’t have the extra 4x8 in their legs. That could help them pick off a few teams that are wilting by meet’s end.

Cardinal O’Hara
Justin Jones 2:01.05i/1:57.37
Quentin Francis 2:02.04i/53.20i
Rob Morro 4:28.34i/4:23.47/1:58.58
Ryan James 4:31.50i/4:26.70/2:02.10
Derek Sacks 2:06.58i
Tamir Jones 52.69i/50.95

Projected Line Up: R. James, T. Jones, J. Jones, Morro

The defending champions are officially on everyone’s radar. They played it cool on the DMR up until MoCs, but then blasted a win in their heat (but not fast enough to beat CB East’s time for gold from the first heat). Now they suddenly seem very potent in the DMR and will have at least one fresh piece, Ryan James, who could potentially help swing the event. If they had gone all in on this relay, I’d really like their odds of taking gold. As things currently stand, it’s a bit more up in the air because tired legs could come into effect. However, I like Justin Jones ability to double and I think Morro could do a decent job as well, whether that is on the 1200 (he ran a great 12 leg last year) or the mile (who knows the plan yet). I’ve had more than one person tell me that they are very high on this relay’s chances for success.

And, of course, as I said in the 4x8 preview, there’s always the small chance O’Hara lets a “B” squad loose in the 4x8 and saves Jones and Morro to run at 100% for this DMR. Then this DELCO squad might be able to play Drake on the car ride home.

West Chester Henderson

Spencer Smucker 9:01.11i/4:24.57
Josh Richard 2:02.01
Myles Cooper 52.96i
Ben Berkman 3:26.20/4:37.77/2:05.97
Kavond Jones 22.8hi
Michael Thompson 3:22.83/2:09.40

Projected Line Up: Thompson, Cooper, Richard, Smucker

One team has won 3 of the 9 state DMRs contested in recent years. That same team will also have an almost completely fresh squad (their 400 guy might also be on the 4x2) at states, making them perhaps the only team in the field to race this thing at 100%. But they are young. Their anchor will likely be sophomore Spencer Smucker and the rest of their legs could also end up as juniors. Josh Richard has shown real promise in the 800m role, but the 1200 spot is still a bit up for grabs. They will need someone to step up and fill that role if they want to stay involved in this one long enough to finish with all state honors. Although Smucker is just a sophomore, he already sits with a 4:24 freshman year 1600m PR and holds two state medals in XC. He’s no stranger to the big stage and tends to perform well when the pressure is on. Can Henderson reach into their bag of tricks for one more state title in the DMR?

Germantown Friend’s

Nick Dahl 4:14.5i (s)/4:17.18i/9:01.81/1:56s
Grayson Hepp 1:55.50i
Jonnie Plass 2:02.36i/2:02.21
Daniel Stassen 2:02.64
Gordon Goldstein 2:00.15
Eli Schwemler 24.17/53.56

Projected Line Up: Hepp, Schwemler, Plass, Dahl

Henderson has 3 titles. LaSalle has 2. O’Hara’s got one. But Germantown Friends has yet to clasp that coveted DMR state gold. They’ve been close a number of times, including some sprint finishes, but, ultimately, they have not left victorious in this event. That being said, they do have a Penn Relays championship in the DMR and return two key legs from last year’s all-state squad: Nick Dahl and Grayson Hepp. All those guys have done this year is run PRs at the 800m and the mile. Hepp is an experienced 1200m leg, a valuable asset for a rarely run and tricky to judge event. They have their choice of 800m legs with similar abilities and will even have the advantage of seeing who does or doesn’t step up on the 4x8 before placing their 3^rd leg on race day. But they won’t be completely fresh and that puts a little junk in their legs for the finish. Can Dahl handle the double well enough to put down another 4:14 type anchor performance like he did in the team’s first DMR of the year? If he does, there will be very few runners in this field who can hang at that pace.

CB East

Jake Brophy 1:58.71i/4:22.89i/8:36.71i/1:54s
Louis Kettleberger 2:03.10i/2:01.70
Ata Shahideh 2:04.18i/51.60i/1:56.85
Josh Goetz 4:41.22i/9:06.26i
David Endres 4:41.62i
Marc Motter 2:01.96

Projected Line Up: Endres, Motter, Shahideh, Brophy

The 3k-DMR double, in my opinion, is going to be tricky. So tricky, in fact, that I think there are solid odds that Goetz/Endres (whoever isn’t the 1200 leg) hops in to give Jake a rest. That 3k is going to be fast, probably record setting pace and it’s very possible Jake will have already run the 4x8 as well, making the mile leg a third race in a long weekend. But there will be time, maybe around an hour or so between all the 4x2s and the girls DMR, for Jake to recover. Many people that I’ve talked to think he is more than fit enough to turn around and run at or under 4:20 on the anchor leg for East. That would be a heroic finish and likely help this guy get athlete of the meet honors.

It looks like either freshman sensation David Endres or veteran Josh Goetz will take on 1200m duties in this one to try and help set their team up near the front. That’s an important task as their next three legs, in all likelihood will be doubling from the 4x8 (and 3k) and need to be engaged and motivated. If Endres leads off, he would be one of four freshmen I’m currently projecting to run lead off legs on a state championship DMR. That’s crazy! These kids are strong beyond their years. It’s worth noting that Shahideh, who has run 1:56 outdoors, could be a breakaway 800m type similar to what I said about Nick Feffer for State College. Again, not many teams will be able to drop the hammer on the ocho and that could help East make a big move and set up Brophy to try and get them the trophy. Well medal really, but that doesn’t rhyme.

CB West

Jake Claricurzio 52.73i/2:00.81i/1:56s
Ryan McIlhinney 55.21i/53.38/2:02.47
Rock Fortna 1:58.25i/4:24.34i/1:54s/4:17.75
Brian Iatarola 4:34.33i/9:05.43i
Carter Zerweck 53.02/1:58.31
Joe Manetta 23.39i

Projected Line Up: Iatarola, Manetta, Claricurzio, Fortna

CB West is still a bit of a mystery to me in the DMR. They will be doubling back from the 4x8 and a few guys, including Jake Claricurzio, may also be pulling 4x2 duty just before this one goes off. I’m not positive who the 1200 leg is here, but my guess is Iatarola will jump in here, leading the way with fresh legs. Iatarola has run 4:34 this year and added a 9:05. Plus, in his two XC state appearances, he’s excelled big time with a pair of top 50 finishes and an individual medal this past fall. Seems like an x-factor. If Iatarola sets them up well, they can use Claricurzio on the 800m leg (he has 1:56 speed) and then Fortna can try his hand on the anchor. Rock is one of those guys who seems just on the cusp of being game changing. He’s split 4:16 on a 4x16 and run 4:17 from scratch, but he hasn’t commanded races the way someone like Desko or Dahl has. This is a big chance for Fortna to prove he belongs in that very elite tier. With a big anchor leg on race day, he could carry CB West to a memorable performance.

Pennridge

Austin Howell 49.98i/49.77
Tucker Desko 1:54.86i/4:20.17i
Matt Eissler 2:00.40i/4:39.22i
Jeff Espinal 2:01.76i/1:56s
Luke Eissler 2:03.30i
Solomon Araneta 2:06.31i/2:04.81

Projected Line Up: M. Eissler, Howell, Espinal, Desko

Pennridge threw us (or me at least) a solid curve ball this week when they left Tucker Desko off the 4x8 so he could go for the individual mile (a fun swerve). That left Desko in a position to go hard after the DMR, where the team can also bring back strong 400m runner Austin Howell for his open event. Those guys are both elite in their respective events (top 5 or so in the state). The team will then likely opt for frosh Matt Eissler on lead off and Jeff Espinal on the 800m. Espinal split 1:56 last outdoors in the 800 and if he recaptures that magic, he will keep the team in great position. Matt Eissler is a very talented freshman, having run 2:00 already on a flat track, but he will have quite a bit of pressure in this spot. And he might be doubling off the 4x8 (although there is a lot of time in between). But Pennridge is stacked across the board in this event and it’s not a coincidence that they have one of the fastest times in the state this year. Plus, there is the added possibility that Pennridge just keeps Eissler and/or Espinal fresh for the days final distance relay, bolstering an already strong line-up.  

Downingtown West

Ian Alleyne 23.81i/54.47i
Ryan Barton 4:28.90i/1:59i (s)/4:18.09
Shaun Bullock 2:08.15i/4:45.40i/4:33.34/2:05.52
Ben Ryherd 9:04.56i
Henry Sappey 8:56.13i/4:24.06

Projected Line Up: Barton, Alleyne, Bullock, Sappey

DT West is far and away the top seed in the state championship, however that was with a very different looking squad. The Hoeys will take on individual and 4x4 duties and, considering their stacked 4x4 is an all-state threat, they will also leave off guys like McLemore and Nate Alleyne. However, there is more to this team than just the Hoeys (they won the Northeast Regional in XC) and so Ryan Barton (4:18 1600 PR combined with sub 2 800 ability) and Henry Sappey (one of the strongest distance runners in the state, 6^th at XC States) will lead a squad that also will include another top 7 piece in either Bullock or Ryherd. Barton and Sappey are both going to be pulling double duty here, including a 3k-DMR double for Sappey that is going to be tricky. However, even on the double, I think Barton has the potential to be a monster 1200m leg. West just needs to pick up a few extra points here to bolster their team title hopes and this relay may be able to pull that off. There’s a lot of strength here, they just need to prove they have the speed to finish things.

While typing this, I’ve basically talked myself into five or six different teams that could win the state championship. It’s crazy really. I think it’s going to be an epic race. It reminds me a bit of the 2011 state championships when Wissahickon pulled out the title in a blanket finish from 1-8. Or maybe even the 2014 final where (minus Henderson who ran away with the title) no team was an obvious pick for silver and no team really pursued it with fresh legs. But sometimes fresh legs are overrated. Out of the last 9 DMR title races, just twice has the team that won been completely fresh (2010 Henderson and 2008 LaSalle who holds the meet record).

And the key, of course, is to have that star-studded leg to set the tone. Check out the resume of some of these guys

2015 O’Hara – Kevin James 4:10.98c/8:57 (two time state runner up)

2014 Henderson – Tony Russell 4:09.53/8:57 (three time individual state champ)
2013 LaSalle – Tom Coyle 4:11.97 (1600m state champ)
2012 Great Valley – Ned Willig 4:11.99 (indoor mile state champ)
2011 Wissahickon – Hong Cho 1:50.41 (800m state champ)
2010 Henderson – Will Kellar 4:12.00 (1600m state champ)
2009 Upper Dublin – Mike Palmisano 4:13.93 (1600m state champ)
2008 LaSalle – Dan Lowry 4:12.02c (multi time PCL champ, not PIAA)

I mean look at those times! That’s absurd.

Overall, I’ve been saying since the beginning of the season that GFS was my pick and I think it would be silly to back out now. I’m a little worried about the 4x8-DMR double, but I think this squad is ready and motivated for this moment. Plus this program is due a championship in this event considering how excellent they have been. And I really do believe that sacrificing the individual aspirations for a team title could really help motivate everyone on the roster. And if you need another reason, Hepp and Dahl have been on this relay the past two years at states and come up short. Just pile on the extra motivation.

After those guys, however, I’m really lost. It’s kind of a crap shoot who is going to have the legs to double and who is not. Where do the fresh legs come into play? Who is the most motivated at day’s end? What do we do with the 4 freshman that may be leading off in this one? It’s enough to make me dizzy. But in a good way.

And so, for my last event predictions of the day,

1. GFS 10:24.57

2. State College 10:27.18
3. Pennridge 10:27.96
4. CB West 10:33.22
5. Carlisle 10:34.84
6. O’Hara 10:35.79
7. LaSalle 10:36.10
8. Seneca Valley 10:38.91