2016 NCAA Outdoor Predictions: Garrett Zatlin

By: Garrett Zatlin

800

1. Brandon McBride (Miss. State)
2. Shaquille Walker (BYU)
3. Hector Hernandez (Texas A&M)
4. Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. State)
5. Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest)
6. Christian Sanders (La Salle)
7. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
8. Jonah Koech (UTEP)

The heats in this event really made things tricky. I wanted to put guys like Harris and Kuhn in there, but couldn't pull out any of these eight. I see the pace being really quick from the gun with Hernandez taking it out hard while McBride and Walker close to pull out sub-1:45 times. Then there are other names like Robert Heppenstall who has been dominating all season despite only being a freshman. I could see him finishing as high as 3rd. Further down the list, even with my PA bias I think Christian Sanders is incredibly underrated. He has dropped some huge PR's and has beat a lot of great names in the process. I see him getting All-American.

1500

1. Izaic Yorks (Washington) 
2. Clayton Murphy (Akron)
3. Henry Wynne (UVA)
4. Craig Engels (Mississippi)
5. Matthew Maton (Oregon)
6. Brannon Kidder (Penn State)
7. James Randon (Yale)
8. David Elliot (Boise State)

Yorks has just been too dominant as of late. We have seen him take command against some of the best fields in the nation and beat them. He is absolutely relentless. His 800 speed and 3k endurance give the indication that he can run in nearly any kind of race (tactical or pushed). Murphy seems like a reasonable pick at the second spot. He hasn't lost a 1500 since 2014 and he looked excellent at regionals. Guys like Wynne, Engels, Kidder, and Randon will use their strong kicks to make up lots of ground and try to catch up to Yorks and Murphy who will simply be too far ahead at that point.

3000 Steeple

1. Mason Ferlic (Michigan)
2. Benard Keter (Texas Tech)
3. Zak Seddon (Florida State)
4. Caleb Hoover (NAU)
5. Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville)
6. Aaron Nelson (Washington)
7. CJ Albertson (Arizona State)
8. Darren Fahy (Georgetown)

Mason Ferlic has to be the heaviest favorite to win this. If he doesn't, it might be one of the biggest chokes of all time. That said, one trip can mess up an entire race and we saw that with Ferlic last year. Still, he's the favorite no doubt. Keter really impressed me at regionals after he effortlessly took over the last lap like it was nothing. I'm counting on another strong move like that to put him in second overall. Caleb Hoover, on the other hand, looked really uncomfortable at regionals and that may have been why I knocked him to fourth. As for sleeper picks, CJ Albertson has impressed me all year and I'm counting on him stepping up to the plate one last time.

5000

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)
3. Sean McGorty (Stanford)
4. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
5. Grant Fisher (Stanford)
6. Thomas Awad (Penn)
7. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
8. Colby Gilbert (Washington)

Many people might point to Cheserek and mention his early season flaws, but I have learned to never doubt the King. He has looked incredibly sharp at PAC 12's and regionals with his kick back to nearly 100%. I'm not expecting any concerns for him taking an L (even if the 10k is before this). As for the rest of the picks, it was pretty easy to decide which names I wanted, but trying to put them in the exact place is never easy. The 8th spot was the only one I really wasn't sure of. Corona, McDonald, Kincaid, and Walling were all considered for it.

10000

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Futsum Zienasellassie (NAU)
3. Erik Peterson (Butler)
4. Luis Vargas (NC State)
5. Jacob Thomson (Kentucky)
6. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
7. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)
8. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

For me, this was definitely the hardest one. There is so much that can happen over six miles and no one can be completely counted out (or in). Yes, many people are convinced that Futsum will win. The main argument is that he's run sub 28 minutes and should easily blow the doors off the race. Of course, the same thing was said for Jason Witt of BYU last year who was under 28 minutes and failed to beat Ches (or Jenkins) at NCAA's. I see an uncanny resemblance in the two scenarios and am going to stick with Ches. As for the other names, Erik Peterson might have been one of my favorite "underdogs" in the national scene. The guy constantly pumps out excellent races (and wins) but rarely gets any love for it. I think he has breakout race for third. Other guys like Thomson have been super consistent all year while Kipkoech has been in this position before and has done incredibly well.