2016 NCAA Outdoor Predictions: ForrestCRN

By: PA Dont Play

800

Heat 1: Brandon McBride – Q; Isaiah Harris – Q; Chris Sanders – q
Heat 2: Eliud Rutto – Q; Donavan Brazier – Q; Sampson Laari – q
Heat 3: Shaquille Walker – Q; Jesse Garn – Q

McBride will take his heat out quick and I see this aiding at least one runner to get a q, potentially two. Holland Sherrer could very well sneak in as well. I’m hoping Sanders keeps up his streak. I loved watching him race as a senior in PA high school and he’s gutsy, will go with a faster pace and get himself in behind Harris who has looked great consistently.

Out of Heat 2 I see Rutto and Laari working together knowing they’ll need each second to keep up with the speed from Heat 1. This helps them both get in with Brazier continuing. Tough to call the freshman making it over strong seniors like his teammate Hernandez. I honestly don’t have much faith in the Georgetown program, which is why I’m leaving White on the just missed list.

Heat 3 I really wanted to see Austin Mudd make this final but I don’t think he’s got the top end speed that will be needed. Sad to see him move down from the 1500, which I really thought would be his bread and butter in college. I don’t trust seeing more than 2 freshman make this final, so I leave Heppenstall out. Walker has been consistent and has so much experience I think he takes the win in this heat pretty handily, and I’m going to go with a sleeper pick in Garn to follow up his big PR with another amazing race to get a Q in his second to last race.

In the final I see McBride taking home the Gold. He’s so so powerful and frankly after that 1:44 watch out for him to try and eclipse the 1:44.3 record set by Jim Ryun. I think this quicker pace benefits the experienced guys like Rutto and Walker. In the end I think garn and Rutto ultimately fade and i’m going with Laari to pick up the pieces for his teammate. I think McBride just misses the overall record but will get the Meet Record. This will provide huge motivation to an amazing freshman class. I think that record will be broken in the next 3 years. 

1.    Brandon McBride (Miss. State)- 1:44.40 MR

2.    Shaquille Walker (BYU)

3.    Sampson Laari (Mid. Tenn. State)

4.    Christian Sanders (La Salle)

5.    Isaiah Harris (Penn State)

6.    Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. State)

7.    Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)

8.    Jesse Garn (Binghamton)

1500

Heat 1: Clayton Murphy – Q; Brannon Kidder – Q; Blake Haney – Q; Craig Engels – Q; Ben Malone – Q
Heat 2: Henry Wynne – Q; Izaic Yorks – Q; Matt Dorsey – Q; Josh Kerr – Q; Jordan Williamsz – Q; James Randon - q; Sam Prankel – q

Heat 1 is stacked with 800m speed demons like Murphy, Kidder, and Engels. I really like the top end speed and Kick on Malone, which is what sneaks him into this final. Haney moves on no problem as well. I don’t see this being a very quick heat either, so no ‘q’’s here.

Heat 2 will have Yorks taking it out to ensure he makes the finals. Wynne and Williamsz should breeze in with strong finishes for the 2-3 slots. I’m a really big fan of the Air Force’s 1500/Mile program and I see Dorsey continuing this tradition with a strong showing into the finals. Gotta give Josh Kerr some love here as well. I’m just a big James Randon fan, so i’m going to go with my heart on him getting the first q into the finals, and it just seemed wrong not to have at least two Oregon jerseys in this final, so Sam Prankel eases into this one at the end past the likes of Horrocks in what should be a quick pace.

I truly believe if you don’t pick Clayton Murphy you’re crazy. He is an absolute stud and rounds benefit him quite well. If there were 3 sets this weekend it would be even easier for him. Really strong field imo, and i’ve got Yorks at 3 and it almost seems a bit high for how slow I think this race will be. So very torn about Williamsz at 7. I think he’s my biggest upset to beat Murphy.

1.    Clayton Murphy (Akron)

2.    Henry Wynne (UVA)

3.    Izaic Yorks (Washington)

4.    Blake Haney (Oregon)

5.    Craig Engels (Mississippi)

6.    Brannon Kidder (Penn State)

7.    Jordan Williamsz (Villanova)

8.    Matt Dorsey (Air Force) 

9.    Sam Prakel (Oregon)

10. James Randon (Yale)

11. Josh Kerr (New Mexico)

12. Ben Malone (Villanova)

3000 Steeple

Heat 1: Aaron Nelson – Q; Edwin Kibichiy – Q; Jakob Abrahamsen – Q; Mj Erb – Q; Elmar Engholm – Q; Caleb Hoover -- q
Heat 2: Mason Ferlic – Q; Jordan Mann – Q; Darren Fahy – Q; Zak Seddon –Q; Troy Reeder – Q; Dylan Blankenbaker – q

Honestly do not know too much about the steeple this year. I bank heavily on XC to show how things will work out for these guys, because I like how the strength translates. That being said I have been watching Mason Ferlic closely and he’s on absolute fire. To consistently be breaking 8:30 is no joke. He will win unless something unpredictable happens, and that is often likely in the steeple. I really like Egholm’s range with 1:50 and 3:42 (1500) under his belt.

1.    Mason Ferlic (Michigan)

2.    Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville)

3.    Elmar Engholm (New Mexico)

4.    Zak Seddon (Florida State)

5.    Caleb Hoover (NAU)

6.    Troy Reeder (Furman)

7.    Jakob Abrahamsen (Eastern Kentucky)

8.    Aaron Nelson (Washington)

9.    Darren Fahy (Georgetown)

10. MJ Erb (Syracuse)

11. Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma)

12. Jordan Mann

5000

After what will have been a devastating Wednesday night for King Ches, will he be able to come back and take the 5k title? Tiernan takes it out hard and burns Ches out. Get ready for a pace that will be absolute fireeee. People will fall off. Wheels will be rolling. Get HYPE.

1.    Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)- 13:22.50

2.    Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 13:23.80

3.    Justyn Knight (Syracuse)-13:27.40

4.    Sean McGorty (Stanford)

5.    Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)

6.    Chartt Miller (Iona)

7.    Thomas Awad (Penn)

8.    Golby Gilbert (Washington)

9.    Vegard Oelstad (OKST)

10. Morgan Pearson (Colorado)

11. Ryan Walling (Mississippi)

12. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

10000

Oh man!! Hereeeee we go. Haven’t been this hype for a 10k since 2012 Olympics tbh. King Ches coming off injury against Futsum and Murphy! What a crew. And i don’t want to take away from the battle sure to be had by Vargas, Peterson, Green, Thompson, Bennie, and company behind them.

Just for my own fun, and probably a loss in this prediction contest:

1.    Futsum Zienasellassie (NAU)

2.    Edward Cheserek (Oregon)

3.    Pierce Murphy (Colorado)

4.    Luis Vargas (NC State)

5.    Jonathan Green (Georgetown)

6.    Jacob Thomson (Kentucky)

7.    Erik Peterson (Butler)

8.    Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)

9.    Reid Buchanan (Portland)

10. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

11. Shaun Thompson (Duke)
12. Tyler King (Washington)