2016 NCAA Outdoor Predictions: Alex Fox

By: Alex Fox

Before I get into my predictions, let me apologize for my absence from coverage over the past couple of weeks, as I have been travelling and did not have time for my usual efforts. Unfortunately, I’m once again pressed for time, and my explanations will be brief. Lucky for you readers, you get to avoid my long-winded and poorly-humored write-up which we’ve all become so accustomed to. With this in mind, let’s dive in!

800
  1. Brandon McBride (Miss. State)
  2. Shaq Walker (BYU)
  3. Hector Hernandez (Texas A&M)
  4. Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. State)
  5. Donovan Brazier (Texas A&M)
  6. Jesse Garn (Binghamton)
  7. Isaiah Harris (Penn State)
  8. Christian Sanders (La Salle)

            I think McBride makes this a fast one, and based on his near NCAA record this season, I don’t think anyone keeps up with him over the final 200. The fast pace will favor guys like Rutto, Walker, and Hernandez following McBride. This will also hopefully serve as a nice measuring stick on the national stage for young guns like Brazier and Harris, who missed the final indoors.

1500
  1. Izaic Yorks (Washington)
  2. Henry Wynne (UVA)
  3. Brannon Kidder (Penn State)
  4. Craig Engels (Mississippi)
  5. Clayton Murphy (Akron)
  6. Blake Haney (Oregon)
  7. Jordy Williamsz (Villanova)
  8. James Gowans (Cornell)

            Much like the 800, I believe Yorks pushes the pace of the final in the 1500 which plays greatly to his advantage. Yorks has got great strength and speed, and cannot let it come down to a final straight away with guys like Wynne, Kidder, Murphy, and Williamsz in this field. My inclusion of Gowans is from the heart, and maybe not from the brain. Go Big Red!

3000 Steeple
  1. Mason Ferlic (Michigan)
  2. Caleb Hoover (NAU)
  3. Edwin Kibichy (Louisville)
  4. Zak Seddon (Florida State)
  5. Aaron Nelson (Washington)
  6. MJ Erb (Mississippi)
  7. Bernard Keter (Texas Tech)
  8. Bailey Roth (Arizona)

            Barring a fall, this is Ferlic’s race. His sub 8:30 is dominant. The only guy I’ve seen in this field with a fighting chance is Hoover, who has an excellent close, but I don’t think it’s a close enough race for him to pull the victory. I give Kibichy the edge over Seddon, who hasn’t looked great this year when I’ve watched him. I hope this race is when Bailey Roth starts to fulfill the promise he showed in high school.

5000
  1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
  2. Sean McGorty (Stanford)
  3. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)
  4. Thomas Awad (Penn)
  5. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
  6. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
  7. Grant Fisher (Stanford)
  8. William Kincaid (Portland)

            Another stacked field, another Ches victory. I think this could play out like the indoor 3k, with the main man from Oregon pulling away from the field mid race, making it a fight for silver. I like McGorty’s and Awad’s kick, but Curtin is in better 5k shape than Awad at this point for me. Fisher proved his chops at PJ, and will just continue getting better.

10000
  1. Futsum Zienasellassie (NAU)
  2. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
  3. Luis Vargas (NC State)
  4. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
  5. Jacob Thomson (Kentucky)
  6. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
  7. Reid Buchanan (Portland)
  8. Erik Peterson (Butler)

            Futsum is just in better 10k shape. He ran sub 28 to send a message: no one is keeping up with me at nationals. Him and Ches pull away from the field with a little over a mile to go, and Futsum ends the race with 1k left. Ches holds on for second. Vargas has been one of the most underrated runners this year between indoor and outdoor, and I remember watching Thompson run well somewhere this year. The rest of the picks are sorta gut reactions with my fingers crossed.

You’re going down this year Garrett. 


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