Olympic Trials 10k Preview

The U.S. 10k is, unfortunately, probably one of our weaker events this year. There’s certainly some talent in the race, as well as some young guys who could be primed for a breakthrough. However, if you look at the event as a whole, it’s really not that deep. In fact, the top 4 qualifying times aren’t even from this year, and none of those top 4 guys has run a track 10k this year. Sure, we’ve got guys like Galen Rupp, Ben True, Hassan Mead, and Bernard Lagat who all have major championship experience. Beyond those four though, there isn’t that much. Zeinessellassie and Jenkins have us excited about the future of American running, and they should. However, they aren’t quite ready yet. We also have Scott Fauble, Sam Chelenga, and German Fernandez, who have all showed flashes of brilliance. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them has a breakout race and sneaks into the top three, but I certainly don’t expect to see that.


Let’s start with Lagat. He has an incredible history of showing up when it matters. Every time USA’s rolls around he’s ready to go. However, Lagat is 41, and while he looked really good running 27:49 at Payton Jordan, that’s not young. Then you throw in the fact that he didn’t finish his last race and he looks dubious at best. I realize those are strong words, especially when we’re talking about Lagat, but father time has to catch up to him eventually, and I think this is the year. I know Lagat’s outkicked him every other year, but not this time. I can’t see him top three, and he better watch his back because fourth certainly isn’t guaranteed either. 


Now, one of the guys I’m really excited to see run is Hassan Mead. This guy has been on fire for the last year, but is somehow still super underrated. He qualified for the Worlds team in the 1ok last summer, finishing 3rd at the trials in 28:16. He then went on to run the same time in Beijing, which is really impressive given how terrible the conditions were. Mead has continued to build since then running 7:38 for 3k indoors and 3:37.65 at the Hoka Mid-Distance Classic destroying some established 1500 runners like Wheating and Manzano in the process. Mead then went on to run the American leading 5k at the Nike Prefontaine Classic finishing in a very impressive 13:04. Even though he hasn’t run a 10k since World’s last year, I think Mead is coming into the trials in fantastic shape and is a borderline lock to make the team. 


Before I get to this next guy, I have a confession to make. While I am, always have been, and always will be a mid-distance runner at heart, this guy may be my favorite distance runner right now. He’s New England born and bred, just like me, and he’s one of the really good guys out there right now. He’s humble and stays out of the spotlight, but his results are anything but ordinary. By now you’ve probably guessed I’m talking about Ben True. Despite being the U.S. leader in the 1500 - which means I don’t feel as guilty calling him my favorite distance runner as I otherwise would - his better events are the 5k and 10k. Much like Mead, he’s on a roll right now, and I really like guys who come into the trials with momentum. Besides that 3:36 1500 I mentioned, he’s finished second at the B.A.A. 5k to Dejen Gebremeskel and 12th at the Nike Prefontaine Classic (2nd American) in 13:12. If I have one major concern it’s that the 10k is a little bit of unfamiliar 10k to True, even by his own admission. In an article in the Portland Press Herald written by Glenn Jordan True said, “I haven’t run many 10Ks on the track, ever, so it’s more of an unknown for me.” Now, that being said, True proved to be more than capable finishing 2nd in the 10k last year, so I think he’ll be fine. 


Another runner to keep an eye on is Diego Estrada. He was in 10th with 6 miles to go at the Marathon trials but unfortunately the heat caught up to him at that point and he didn’t finish. Since then there have been some reports that the comeback train has been a bit rough for him so it’s tough to tell what kind of shape he’s in, especially since he hasn’t run a 10k on the track. However, with that being said, he ran 29:40 at the Bolder Boulder road 10k to finish 3rd in a pretty solid field. Especially when you factor the altitude in, that’s a pretty solid time. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s the fastest an American has ever run there. At the very least it’s the fastest time since 2005. Now, that was a month ago, and a lot can happen in a month, but that could just as easily be a good thing as a bad thing. Don’t forget, this is the same guy that ran 60:51 to win the USA Half Marathon championships last year. Estrada is definitely a tough read, but don’t be surprised if he comes through clutch.


The final runner to spotlight is probably pretty obvious. Galen Rupp comes into the track season fresh off a dominating performance at the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials. I’m not sure “fresh off” is the right way to put that, since I can’t imagine being fresh after a marathon, but that’s what we’re going to go with. There has been a bit of concern among American distance fans in the last couple weeks over Rupp’s performances so far though. He ran 13:20 to win at the Portland Track Festival, but then lost to two collegians at the StumpTown Classic. Salazar attributed this to tired legs, saying that Galen has been running 145 miles per week consistently and was coming off a hard 22 miler just five days before that race. Salazar also said that they were going to start resting Rupp now to get ready for USAs (OregonLive – Ken Goe). This should really worry everyone else in that race, since, as LetsRun pointed out, Galen and Salazar have mastered the art of peaking. Whether it was last year when he ran 4:00 at the Flotrack throwdown only to come back and place 5th at Worlds just two weeks later, or when he lost to Collis Birmingham 2 weeks before setting the American Record in the 10k, Galen is always ready when the stakes are high. And if the stakes aren’t high this weekend, I don’t know when they ever are.


Finally, there are a couple guys you should be aware of going into the race. Christo Landry has been dominating the roads with wins at the U.S. Half Marathon and 25k championships. He hasn’t done a whole lot on the track though, so we’ll have to see if he can translate road success into track success. That’s something a lot of guys have struggled with, so it will be interesting to see how he handles it. Also keep an eye on the Army WCAP teammates Leonard Korir and Shadrack Kipchirchir. They’ve quietly been steadily improving and could be ready to break out. We also have PA and fellow district III alumnus Jon Grey. He’s got one of the best post collegiate resume’s of all time for a PA distance runner so it should be fun to see where he finishes.


I guess I should probably finish with an official prediction. Call me boring, but I’m going to go with the same result as last year. However, True will scratch after making the 5k so the 4th place runner will be our 3rd 10k representative in Rio.
1st: Galen Rupp
2nd: Ben True
3rd: Hassan Mead
4th: Diego Estrada