I will share predictions in the discussion piece interactively as we go.
Some questions: who wins each event? Who are the top PA performers? How fast does Ritz go? Anyone break 9? What are other top times? Who are the sleepers? Will etrain just keep putting up questions of no one tells him to stop?
As always stay classy,
Train
One question missing, will they use a rabbit?
ReplyDeletePreviews!!
ReplyDeleteAlek Sauer will go 1:50.92
ReplyDeleteId be pleasantly surprised by anything under 1:52. If I'm not mistaken, I think Mallon is the only guy to be at 1:51 or faster for this meet and he ran 1:49.
ReplyDeleteI love this Henderson meet but it’s a tough one to predict since guys aren’t always in their optimal race like they usually are at states. Plus many are just rounding into peak shape for the championship run. But since Etrain asked the questions we have to take a shot, so….
ReplyDeleteI’m only going with PA guys because I don’t know about the others.
800
Hoey, Jaxon – 1:53.8
Sauer – 1:54.2
McDevitt – 1:55.2
This should be a real good one hopefully going to the wire. Hoey seems fully recovered from injury and no doubt getting better every day. Plus he’s probably on a mission to get back where he left off among the tops in the state and that early 4:16 win over a talented field showed he’s well on his way.
1600
A lot of underclassman in this one and with a ton of guys in the 4:20-4:30 range, so tough to guess. Josh Hoey has the lowest seed but quite a few of these runners have nice 800 races already this year so the potential to drop to low 4:20’s is there.
Hoey, Josh – 4:20.8
Barton – 4:22.5
Good, Conway, Smucker – 4:23.2 (I’m wimping out by not picking a definite 3rd here, but since I think they’ll all have a nice drop, I can’t choose one over the other.)
There is one interesting side note in this race now that Josh Hoey is at DWT. Hoey and WCH Smucker are in what I think is the first of what could be many big meet/Chesmont/D1/States duals with these guys. I’m just pointing it out, not putting any pressure on the freshmen as a four year high school career is a long time and a lot can happen. But these two are obviously very talented and accomplished already and still only in 9th grade. I read somewhere that Smucker skips indoor to play another sport during the winter so in theory Hoey has the advantage of running training year round. But it wouldn’t surprise me if these two were side by side in this race.
3200
It’s like a who’s who in PA distance with most of the top 3200 guys on the eastern side of the state in on this.
Brophy - 9:05
Webb – 9:07
Power – 9:08
Comber – 9:11
Marston – 9:13
The weather is great and there is a runner from NJ with an 8:50 seed time who you would think would push the pace, but I’m reluctant to predict sub 9:00 for our PA guys. Especially with Brophy, Comber, and Marston fresh off the Penn Relays 3000. But I hope I’m wrong.
1500
Ritz – 3:49.7 - This race likely has a rabbit and the pro’s should maintain a strong pace with a packed high school stadium making a lot of noise. It should set up nicely for an exciting race and impressive performance.
Sleeper pick – I can’t believe I’m calling him a sleeper, but Webb. He’s only a sleeper pick because we haven’t heard much from him yet this spring. So long as he’s still 100% I’d expect he’ll be right in the mix. Also keeping an eye on Wills and Cook who both came on strong last week in the 1600.
-RJJL
800 – Nothing like predicting the winner with his time exactly to the hundredth. The only problem for me was that though I got his time correct, Hoey didn’t win. I never saw anything close to a 1:51 coming from McDevitt, I had no idea he had that kind of speed (he might not have known either). A huge pr and a really strong race running down Sauer who went after it from the gun. If the Hoey’s were still at Malvern that would have had serious potential for a sub 7:40 4x8.
Delete1500 – Great run by Ritz, he seemed unfazed by the pros and the early fast pace and was in the mix until the last quarter got outrageously fast. An awesome time at 3:50.3
1600 – Stacked with underclassman, a lot of pr’s but completely overshadowed by the 800 and 3200.
3200 – I didn’t think anyone would go sub 9:00 and after a first 1600 at 4:32 it still seemed like a decent prediction. But the front pack stayed tight most of the race and plenty of jockeying for the lead, everyone wanted this one. 8 guys in on sub 9:10 pace and then it got faster. Power made that big move in lap 7 to try to break away but as it turns out Brophy was just toying with them all. A 59ish final quarter off of that pace is just nuts and he killed it down the stretch to easily break 9:00. The top 8 all in at 8:57 – 9:06, just incredible. Marston absolutely destroyed it too and must have had about a 62 or so final quarter. And I don’t know how I overlooked Dahl in my prediction but wow did he bring it. Comber, Power, Hockenbury and Webb all outstanding, plus several PR’s in the middle of the race. It will be interesting to see how the D1 3200 plays out, let alone states.
It was awesome the way so many teammates and coaches were cheering the athletes on by running back and forth from one side of the infield to the other. This Henderson meet has really become one of the top meets in the East. The 3200 could become an Arcadia of the east at this rate.
- RJJL
McDevitt upstaged Brophy and Ritz, not to mention his former teammate.
DeleteToo bad Kevin James couldn't join the fun but he was busy winning the Delco 800/1600/3200 (9:22) to lead Ohara to victory.
DeleteCrazy meet. Power runs 9:06, but gets 8th. Brophy runs 59 for his last lap to run 8:57(4:32, 4:25). 9 district 1 guys run the SQS. 46 guys under 9:50. 800-McDevitt closed like a maniac after Sauer took it out in 55.2. 29 guys under 2:00. 1600 was out slow, but closed fast-21 guys under 4:30. The girls races were equally ridiculous. It took 5;03 to medal in the girls 1600. 11:01 in the 3200. What is it about that place?
ReplyDeleteDon't forget Ritz either, his 3:50 1500 converts to about 4:07 1600 and that race went out hard too.
DeleteI like Henderson for a number of reasons. The brand new surface is fast. The fact that the track is sunken below grade for about half a lap with a wall provides some decent shielding from wind effect. Then having a second clock at the 200 meter mark on the back strech gives the runners plenty of information, and finally obviously known the level of the competition and coverage of the meet should really give athletes an adrenaline boost. Its a real mid-season gut check.
DeleteI was looking at the results in the1600 and I saw Josh Joey won, but I watched that race and some kid from wissahickon near him out. Was he DQ'd? If anyone knows what happened I would like to know.
ReplyDeleteAre you sure you were not looking at the pre race performance list which includes qualified times?
ReplyDeleteHere are the results
pa.milesplit.com/meets/193542/results/371240/raw
The html version seems to be correct, I think there are errors in the results that show up when you click into the results from the page of the meet right below the performance list.
DeleteAlso hidden in the results is that Neshaminy had a freshman go 9:42; he hasn't really been talked about on here.
ReplyDelete