Pennsbury (Large School 1)
Seed: 7:51.51 (Millrose Games)
States: 1st 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Eric Kersten (2:03.08/1:58s), Sam Webb (1:55s/4:13), Matt Mulvaney (2:05.31/1:59s), Alek Sauer (1:52.99/1:52.61s), Other possibilities: Zach Yeger (2:04.47)
Here's what you need to know about Pennsbury: they are the reigning indoor 4x800m state champions. Why is that important? Well dating back to at least 2007, every single PA state champ indoors in the 4x8 has come back to qualify for the COA in the 4x8 the next year. That's some strong statistical data.
You have to feel good about having a 1:52 type like Alek Sauer on the anchor so that even if things go wrong early, he can drag the squad back into it. Webb has been great and the team has been consistently in the low 7:50s and been able to withstand a variety of different levels of competition and still succeed. The only possible concern I can think of is their lead off spot. Kersten has been fantastic, most notably running a first place relay split indoors, however he is just a sophomore with no Penn Relays experience. The lead off leg gets crowded and you have to be careful to make sure you don't end up buried among the rubble.
Bottom Line: This is PA's best team and they have been all year. Given the history and the quality of this squad, I'd be surprised to see them left out of the COA.
Penncrest (Small School 2)
Seed: 7:54.06 (PTFCA States)
States: 2nd 4x800m
Projected Line Up: James Teal (2:01.45/2:00.2s), Soham Komat (2:00.28/1:56.9s), Brendan Hanna (2:03.39/2:01.5s), Evan Emmanuel (1:58.63/1:55.0s), Other Possibilities: Nick Mascatelli (1:28.94)
Penncrest is an experienced team that has proven itself a variety of times over the year, most notably when they took Pennsbury down to the wire in the 4x8 at states. The Penncrest program has been excellent for as long as I can remember but somehow they have finished with 3 silvers at states and no COA appearances. That seems bizzare to me considering the quality of this program. This year's squad seems like their best chance considering they have two stud returners with PR experience in Komat and Emmanuel.
The fact that they are in one of the small school heats is a little worrisome as those heats tend to be slower. In theory, PC could win their heat and still miss the COA if the time isn't fast enough. However, I think if they do win, they will get the time. Honestly, my original opinion on this team was: I liked them indoors but they've been quiet so far outdoors. Then I started looking over the stats and realized that each member of their 4x8 has run faster so far in the open 8 this outdoors then they did this past indoors. That's encouraging news considering they ran to a 7:54.0 indoors and they have yet to attend one of the big name meets.
Bottom Line: Komat and Emmanuel are studs and I think Evan could have a huge day. However, Teal and/or Hanna has to run a 1:58ish leg to make them true contenders (something that could certainly happen).
DT West (Large School 2)
Seed: 7:55.09 (William and Mary Colonial Relays)
States: 5th DMR
Projected Line Up: Jaxson Hoey (4:16/1:54 '14), Josh Hoey (1:59.35/4:19), Ryan Barton (2:06.62/2:02s/4:21), Henry Sappey (2:05.25/4:24), Other possibilities: Matt Farrell (2:02.43)
I'm not sure if DT West wanted to be in the DMR (I certainly wanted them to be), but it's hard not to play the what if game given their current roster. But regardless, they are in the 4x8 and they are considered by most to be PA's next best bet for a COA spot after Pennsbury. That's a fair assessment given the fact that: A) they have a ton of momentum and B) their best runner is still recovering and adjusting to racing again.
There's a lot to love considering this team ran a relatively uncontested 7:55 and added a 4xMile team that would have been scary good on the national scene at Henderson (4:16-4:21-4:23-4:24). In theory, this team could 100% beat Pennsbury this weekend and steal the spotlight for PA, especially if both Hoey brothers are on their game. The most interesting development to me, however, is the jump Ryan Barton has made in recent weeks. He has become a fantastic track athlete, running a blazing 4:21 Friday Night. Sappey is probably their slowest leg despite the fact that he is a 4:24 miler and was a top 10 XC states finisher.
I'm a bit concerned about DT West's youth at a meet like this. They have little PR experience (I believe Jaxson is the only one to compete there before and that was in the open mile) and all of their members are underclassmen, including a frosh and a soph. The Penn Relays 4x8 qualifying round is often tough to navigate and many of the best teams have been unable to pass through on their first try.
Bottom Line: DT West didn't care much about inexperience at XC states this year when they finished 4th overall as a team despite their youth. Now add in a 4:11/1:54 guy and his 4:19 brother to the mix? The talent is there to make a statement.
State College (Large School 1)
Seed: 7:55.46 (PTFCA States)
States: 3rd 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Tony Degleris (2:01.47/2:01.26s), Nick Feffer (1:59.63), Eric Heatwole (2:01.62), Alex Milligan (1:59.15/1:57.82s)
Here's an interesting question, when is the last time a team went back to back on COA qualifying from PA? If memory serves it was the 2010-2011 Abington squad and the 2010-2011 LaSalle squad. State College would be the next to do it if they were able to get there this year. Abington did it with almost identical teams in 2010 and 2011, LaSalle had a bit more turnover (I believe they returned half of their squad). State College is looking to do it with 4 completely new runners.
SC has been fantastic again this year and their 4 new runners ran tough to get 3rd at states in a noble title defense at PSU. SC is a very well balanced squad and has put together an impressive stretch over the past half decade. But last year it's hard to deny they were a stronger, more experienced team and, perhaps most importantly, they had a 1:54 type anchor in Will Cather. As of now Milligan sits as one of the slower anchors on this entire list if you judge strictly by open PRs.
But the little lions have run confident this season and Milligan has taken a step into the leadership role relatively seamlessly after splitting 1:57 at nationals and adding a top 20 finish at XC states. He, more so than anyone, was a part of last year's state championship squad. He will be the most important piece in SC's push for another trip to the COA.
Bottom Line: A huge split from Milligan would do wonders, but the best recipe for success for State College is consistency. They need to have everyone near at or under 2 minutes to stay competitive throughout. If they run like they did at Shipp that will happen.
Central Bucks West (Large School 2)
Seed: 7:57.87 (PTFCA States)
States: 4th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Carter Zerweck (2:00s), Andrew Baker (2:04.37/1:59s), Matt Bowen (2:04.05/2:00s). Rock Fortna (1:56s/1:57.93), Other possibilities: Declan McDonald (2:04.68), Ryan McIlhinney (2:04.80), Joe Brill (2:05.22), Jake Claricurzio (2:05.29)
Central Bucks West has become quite the 4x8 powerhouse over the years and in the middle of all the (well deserved) DT West hype, the young group of CBW boys are lurking and waiting to steal the spotlight. CB West made headlines on the track for their early DMR performances, but they really turned heads at the TFCAofGP MoC last winter when they beat LaSalle and Pennsbury for the title. That spoke volumes to be about the talent and toughness of this team.
On paper there doesn't seem to be much beyond stud anchor Rock Fortna (who has been killer this spring, splitting 1:56 at states). In the open events they have no one else under 2:04 and Carter Zerweck, a member of their 4th place states squad, is almost unfindable on milesplit. However, they had 4 legs at 2 flat or faster at indoor states and quietly have been developing more talented legs. Look at that! They have 4 guys on their bench who have run 2:05 or faster in the open 8 and one of those guys (Claricurzio) is a stud freshman who is rapidly progressing.
The concern here fits with many of the other teams: inexperience and youth. Despite all the talent CB West has had and all the success they have had the various state championships, they have made just one COA (although it was a great performance) and in the COA they were bested by Abington, who they beat at both indoor and outdoor states. This team is made up of a few younger pieces and they weren't in this meet a year ago in this event. All that being said, it's hard to count out a quality team with depth.
Bottom Line: I think CB West already has one eye on the future, a future that includes a serious state title run in the outdoor 4x8 and maybe a surprisingly fast showing at the state 4x4. They could be a year away from a great run at the COA. All that said, I think Fortna could really shine this weekend and that may be enough to pull them along.
Central Bucks East (Large School 1)
Seed: 7:58.56 (TFCAofGP Spring Invite)
States: 8th DMR
Projected Line Up: Oliver Boucher (2:02.95/1:55s '14), Jake Brophy (4:17y/1:55s '14), Ata Shahideh (2:01.02), Louis Kettleberger (2:04.8s), Other Possibilities: Josh Goetz (4:39), Connor Sands (4:40/4:34s), Josh Wood (4:41)
CB East is a tricky team to project. Last year they decided to leave Brophy off the 4x8 and let him go after the fresh 3k so this year, with arguably a less impressive squad, it's hard to imagine they won't do the same. However, it's also possible that East has changed it's mind after last year's results and will unleash JB on the second leg or lead off leg of the relay to try and get things going. I think he will be involved when all is said and done and that ups their chances of a COA run.
Boucher has experience from a year ago where he ran an excellent race. He is joined by Shahideh who was also on last year's Penn squad and has been awesome in the early going for East. Kettleberger got a taste of top level competition at indoor states on the DMR as well as on their most recent 4x8 runs, but this stage is likely bigger than both of those. That 2:04 split from Louis is from indoor states and I'd imagine he has/can split faster since, especially with the right competition.
Bottom Line: Brophy or not, this team is going to have to run well to make the COA and that means a big day from Shahideh down well under 2. There's a lot of factors in play here like redemption for indoor states, last year's Penn Relays and the confidence that comes with Pennridge making a very similar move last spring winning TFCAofGP and then qualifying for the Championships.
LaSalle (Large School 2)
Seed: 7:58.64 (Armory Track Invitational)
States: 7th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Patrick Grant (1:59.90/1:57.69s), Stefan Sutton (1:59.68/1:59.47s), Brendan Price (2:01.13s/2:05.18), Ian Challingsworth (2:02.51/2:00.38s), Other possibilities: Michael Phayre (2:05.02)
LaSalle has been showing off tremendous depth on a weekly basis dating back to XC. Their tight spread was one of my favorite parts of following the sport last fall and it's interesting to see that competitiveness translate to the track. All that being said, LaSalle has not been able to enjoy the same level of success at states as they have during the regular season. A big run at Penn Relays would be huge for this team in it's quest to change that history.
Speaking of history, the LaSalle Explorers have been fantastic at Penn Relays in recent years. They had a the DMR champs in 2013, ran strong in that event in 2012, added trips to the COA in the 4x8 in 2010 and 2011 and also were runner ups in the DMR in 2008. That coaching is a good sign projecting ahead for a meet like this.
The most encouraging LaSalle result I've seen thus far this outdoor season, was their excellent SMR run at the CB West relays where they ran 3:31. That implies somebody on this squad (likely Grant or Sutton) is ready to drop a big split at this meet. They have a consistent line up with 4 guys capable of sub 2 so if they add in a pair of 1:56 type legs their qualifying hopes get much more interesting.
Bottom Line: LaSalle is a good team with a nice history. But to get to the COA you have to be a great team. LaSalle, on paper, is ready and eager to make that jump. Now is there chance to prove it.
Pennridge (Large School 2)
Seed: 7:58.84 (PTFCA States)
States: 5th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Dan Williams (1:58.54), Justin Musco (2:00.14), Alex Masgai (2:01.44), Jeff Espinal (2:04.10), Other possibilities: Tucker Desko (4:23), Austin Howell (51.07), Alec Nahas (2:04.49)
I'm not sure if I've mentioned this once or twice or three times, but Pennridge is a dangerous sleeper. I doubted them indoors and they promptly dropped a 5th place finish on me. Last year they came from almost no where to run a strong race at TFCAofGP and then make the Championship of America. Then they won a district title in the 4x8 in the incredibly difficult District One. That wasn't all Joey Logue (although he certainly helped) and Dan Williams will try to lead this squad back to the COA.
They have depth, they have solid experience, they have strong coaching and they have momentum on their side. They are doing their best running in recent weeks. All that being said, they are going to need to cut a solid 6 or so seconds from their seed time to make finals. That means somebody has to become a 1:55 leg at least (likely Williams) and your other legs need to get under 2 minutes. It's doable but it's far from a guarantee.
Bottom Line: I have a hard time seeing how the numbers add up to get them into the finals, but all of the other factors point to a big day for the Pennridge Rams.
Altoona (Large School 1)
Seed: 7:58.91 (PTFCA States)
States: 6th 4x800m
Projected Lineup: Brad Foust (1:56.50), Brett George (1:57.90), Dom Stroh (4:31y/1:58s '14), Joe Uliano (2:03.90)
I'm a big fan of Altoona, not only as a squad this year but as a team in general. Honestly, considering the quality of athletes they have had come through their system, I'm a bit surprised that they haven't had any COA teams or any 4x8 state finalist teams while I've been following the sport. That seems crazy to me. So this year I'm not sure if they are due for a trip to the state finals/COA or if this is a trend that will be repeated again.
Here's the thing, despite their 7:58 seed time, Altoona boasts a 1:56, 1:57 and 1:58 leg by PR. There are very few teams that have that many guys well under 2 minutes on paper. George has been on fire this year during a break out season and Foust has made great improvements at 800m. Stroh's 1:58 came last year at Penn Relays so you know he has the potential to surprise again this weekend.
Bottom Line: There is a clear path to the COA, but it's not an easy path. If Storh and Uliano can reach their full potential in the race, that could be enough to jump a lot of teams and find a way to the Saturday itinerary.
Wissahickon (Large School 1)
Seed: 8:02.94 (TFCAofGP Spring Invite)
States: 9th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Andy Harman (2:04.78/2:00.5s), Kyuande Johnson (2:03.35/1:57.0s), Cam Christopher (2:05.46/2:01.3s), Lukas Marcelis (2:04.2s/4:41y)
Abington (Large School 1)
Seed: 8:03.78 (PTFCA States)
States: 8th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Jordan Neely (1:59.21), Cameron Mitchell (1:58.74), Jake Good (2:00.00), Keion Broadus (2:02.26/2:00.8s), Other Possibilities: Isiah Smith (49.64)
I'm grouping these two teams together for a variety of reasons. For starters, I can (and have) run to Abington from my house in Upper Dublin. I can (and have) run to Wissahickon from my high school in Upper Dublin. Now both teams, who have been on my radar as up and comers all indoors, have squeaked into the last couple spots of the Penn Relays 4x8 heats.
I'm not sure Wissahickon has much more left to drop. I like Johnson a lot and he could maybe lower his split, but it appears to me like Wiss was clicking close to all cylinders at TFCAofGP last weekend. On the other hand I see a ton of potential on the Abington sideline and a ton of speed, which is always important on the 4x8. That being said the last time the two raced, Wissahickon beat Abington! And isn't that what's most important? Here's the thing, in open events Abington has been much more flashy. With frosh Cameron Mitchell's latest 1:58 run, they have 3 guys at 2:00.00 or faster and Broadus lurking waiting to get involved. If they get a breakout race out of someone at Penn they could drop a lot of time. Wiss seems fairly dependent on their KJ.
I will say this about both squads: I see both teams making a few line up tweaks at some point. I think both will introduce some 400m/300 hurlder types into the equation (for Abington that means Isiah Smith) and that could help them cut even more time.
Bottom Line: If you come in seeded at 8:02-8:03, it's going to be very tricky to navigate the field and get to the COA. However, both of these teams could really benefit from the experience and try and drop their first sub 8s. These coaching staffs are two of the best in the business at this sort of thing so you never know, but I'd be very surprised if either was faster than 7:58 (for now .... different story in a month)
Strath Haven (Small School 1)
Seed: 8:06.50 (TFCAofGP Spring Invite)
States: 12th 4x800m
Projected Line Up: Ahmir Gordon (2:00.11), Greg Kotchick (2:00.46), David Reeves (2:07.10), Conan Beckley-Gray (2:03.40)
Twin Valley (Small School 1)
Seed: 8:07.68 (TFCAofGP Spring Invite)
States: 11th DMR
Projected Line Up: Tim Givens (2:06.76), Colin Geary (4:39), Colby Geary, Josh Coakley (2:02.60) Other possibilities: Zach Wittorff (2:07.20), Dom Digiacomo (2:06.58)
Hershey (Small School 1)
Seed: 8:12.82 (Hempfield Invitational)
States: N/A
Projected Line Up: Will Sponaugle (2:00.57), Adam Rabon (2:01.94), Marshall Myers (2:03.62), Aiden Demko
I'm actually a big fan of all three of these squads. Yes, they wouldn't have made the field if they were "large schools", but they are here and they will run competitively. Twin Valley has a secretive level of depth and was quite good during indoors but just couldn't quite get it all to click. They had multiple sub 4:30 guys last year, had a state qualifying 4x8 and are back to back team qualifiers in XC. Coakley was solid for much of indoors and could give them a nice lift at this meet.
Strath Haven has nice depth and has some experience from competing here a year ago. The question for them is more focused on if they can get a breakout performance. They have the 2:00-2:02 types, but they need a 1:56 type to take the next step. Under the spotlight of a big meet like this, maybe we see who the runner is/could be.
Hershey is one of my favorite long term sleeper teams and I've been beating the drum for them since XC. Sponaugle is a fantastic runner and I think he is just beginning to emerge. Rabon had a killer indoor season and took a big jump that I was not expecting. Demko was great during cross but is a bit unproven at 800m and Marshall Meyers is a solid 4th leg, having already run 2:03 this year in limited action. This team hasn't really faced top competition this year so they could have a huge drop for Penn. More likely, however, Penn will be a solid learning experience and a nice early season test. This team's peak will be the end of the season and they could potentially end up grabbing a D3 title when all is said and done.
Bottom Line: I like all these teams, but not as COA teams this year. A sub 8 run by any of these squads would be a huge victory and achievement and a nice moment to build on for a state stretch run.
So at the end of the day how do I think COA qualifying plays out? I'm pretty sure that PA will send at least one team and history says we will get at least two teams through. But who will it be? I think it will be two squads only, but here's my projected top 5 teams ...
1 Pennsbury
2 Penncrest
3 Pennridge
4 DT West
5 CB East
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