By Garrett Zatlin
Yes, it’s true. I was able to complete some predictions. I wish I was able to get more material in, but this week was busier than I thought it was going to be so this will have to do.
Penn Relays is one of my favorite weekends as a fan of track and field. If you’ve never been, I strongly suggest you go. The atmosphere is outstanding and the races are always entertaining (especially the USA vs Jamaica matchups). I like to call it the March Madness of track and field. I’ve been fortunate enough to go every year of high school and I will unfortunately not be able to go this year. Not gonna lie, I had a great set up in high school. I lacked just enough speed that I would go as an alternate for the 4x800. So I still got access to the track for warm ups, but got to enjoy life as a spectator. It’s awesome to hear the crowd roar when someone is about to get hawked as well as seeing the American and Jamaican flags waving all over the stadium. I actually remember getting chills.
So yeah…go.
With all that said, let’s get into the predictions!
Thursday
3000St. Championship (7:30pm)
Like I said in one of my earlier posts, I don’t know a lot about the steeple chase. Even worse, I don’t know a lot about the guys in this event. BUT! I will try my best.
The favorite in this race is Isaac Spencer of Texas A&M who has run 8:40.87 in this event. The catch? He ran that time roughly two years ago (2013). Since then, his best time has been 8:50.74 (Most recently run at Stanford). Max Darrah of Georgetown sports a PR of 8:43.71 but that is from 2013 and has yet to have a time recorded for the 3000St. this season. Darrah’s teammate, Matthew Howard,is another name to keep in mind as he just ran 8:52.83 at the Virginia Challenge. Joshua Roche of Indiana is someone who I’ve actually seen recently. He ran an 8:48.01 at Stanford and was able to bust out a 3:46.49 1500 two weeks ago. He seems like he’s rounding into good shape at a good time. Other names to look out for are Duncan Tomlin (Yale), Connor Martin (Princeton), and Austin McLean (Youngstown St.).
So how do I see it playing out? I’ve been told that the conditions are supposed to be cold and windy. I don’t think the times will be that quick and that it will be pretty tactical considering the field is pretty evenly matched. I imagine by the 1800m-2000m mark that Spencer, Roche, and Howard will break off and the pace will get pretty quick. In this situation, I like Roche and what he has shown in the 1500. He’s got speed and that will work well for him. At the end of the day, I see Roche taking the win.
Also look out PA alumni Ean DiSilvio (Penn State) and Austin Stecklair (Johns Hopkins) in this race.
5000 Championship (9:20pm)
This is going to be an interesting race with some interesting names. What better way to start off this event than by mentioning blog-favorite, Craig Lutz. The Texas Longhorn will make the effort to take down a field that is slightly underrated. Yale’s Kevin Dooney is a favorite of mine. He’s got some speed in him and has some great range. None of his times are spectacular but he has run 13:59 multiple times so if the race gets tactical, Dooney could be in the mix. Jacob Thomson (NC State) is the third seed in this race and rocks a 13:52.71 PR. He can’t be left out of the conversation and will make Lutz work for it. Throw in PA alum Matt Fischer (Penn St.) and you have a sneaky good field. Don’t forget that Fischer has some speed (3:46.95 for 1500). I don’t like to keep throwing around names, but Collin Leibold (Georgetown) is dangerous in this race. He just ran 3:42.80 (1500) at UVA and could make thingsreally interesting if the pace is too easy for too long. I’d also like to mention UVA’s Thomas Madden. If my memory serves me correctly, Madden won the Penn Relayshigh school 3000m in 2013 (might want to fact check that). Assuming that’s true, that’s got to be a great confidence booster for him going into this race. Other guys to watch are Brian Schoepfer (Duke), Mark Derrick (UNC), Ryan Walling (UNC), and Zach Herriot (UVA).
In the end, I don’t see why Lutz can’t win this. Yes, I know how bias that sounds especially with the discovery that he reads the blog. But when you look at the big picture, this is Lutz’s to lose. His 5,000 and 10,000 PR’s are clearly superior to everyone in the field. He just ran his 10k PR at Stanford which indicates he has the fitness to go into the 13:40’s if the race calls for it. However, I don’t think the race will be quite that fast given the conditions. I do believeLutz will have to work for the win with the field he’ll have behind him. However, if he’s smart, he’ll push the pace and try to take the kick out of the quicker guys behind him. This is what I’ve got…
PA alum to watch include Glen Burkhardt (Penn St.), EanDiSilvio (Penn St.), Brendan Shearn (Penn), Dominic DeLuca (Cornell), Ross Wilson (Penn), Max Norris (Columbia), Sean Burke (Lehigh), Kieran Sutton (Shippensburg), and Ryan Cooney (Lehigh).
10,000 Championship (10:55pm)
Aaron Dinzeo (California Pa.) is the man to watch in this race. He has an outstanding PR of 28:40.88 that was run last year. That is straight up talent and there can’t be too much argument about who the favorite in this race is. Michael Biwott (American International) has a PR of 29:03.19 in this event. However, that time was run in 2013. He’ll at least make Dinzeo work a little bit. Ty McCormack (Auburn) is another name I’ve seen around the results and I like his consistency. With that said, I can’t find a result for him where he’s run a 10k. That isn’t the most comforting thing ever and I’m not sure how his (assumed) first time will go. Michigan Wolverine August Pappas ran 29:29.16 last year, but ran a very poor 31:55.35 at the Virginia Challenge last week so it’s tough to decide where to put him. Brian King (Georgetown) also has a decent 10k of 29:46.66.
It’s tough to really say how the race will play out considering I don’t know the field too well. It seems pretty obvious that Dinzeo shouldn’t have too much trouble and he should win this handily. Luckily for McCormack, the field isn’t overwhelmingly fast and he should have enough confidence to mix it up in the top 5. Here’s what I got…
PA alum to watch include Dillon Farrell (Moravian), Alex Izewski (Temple), Austin Pondel (Penn St.), and Zach Hebda (Navy).
Friday
Let me quickly say that the relays are impossible to know without a detailed start list of every relay. Most of this is only speculation as to what people will run. The only idea of relay start lists is what I can get off of Flotrack.
Distance Medley Relay Championship (2:30pm)
The distance medley will open up the real college action that many of us look forward to. The top seed in this event are the Oregon Ducks. According to Flotrack, Ches, Alexander, Elkaim, and Brewer are all running in the Duck’s 4xMile. That means that Jenkins, Gregorek, and Geohegan are not accounted for. To have those three in the DMR is pretty unlikely. With that said, I think it’s very likely that two of those names will be on it.
In an article on thepennrelays.com (http://www.thepennrelays.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=1720&ATCLID=210027394), Gregorekmentions that he’s not sure what he’ll run but that it’ll most likely be the 4xMile or DMR. If the start list on Flotrackstays the same, I think it’s safe to assume Gregorek will be running the DMR (most likely the anchor leg). That leaves Geoghegan and Jenkins to take the 1200. According to Twitter, Geohegan is making the trip with the team to go to the Penn Relays. You’ve got to think that he’ll be running the 1200 leg there. My guess is that Jenkins stays home and continues to prep for whatever the Ducks have next. As for the 800, it makes sense that Niki Franzmair will make an appearance there.
Now most of you are probably thinking that there is no way Oregon loses this event. However, you might want to reconsider.
Georgetown isn’t racing Ledder, Bartlesmeyer, Manahan, or Williams in the 4xMile. This leaves some very speedy guys at the disposal of the Hoyas. Williams would most likely be the 1200 leg while Manahan fills in at the 800. Bartlesmeyer is definitely bringing it home. That is a relay combination that the Ducks can not fool around with or feel comfortable about. Had Cheserek been on the anchor, things might be a little different. However, I’m imagining a very tactical and exciting battle between these two squad if my assumption for who’s running holds up.
Other teams like Villanova and Stanford have some great pieces and solid depth all around. However, their depth isn’t strong enough to hang with the relays mentionedabove. Also to point out, if Duke runs stacked in this event, we could see them surprise and contend up front. When all is and done, I’m thinking the results will be looking something like this…
Saturday
4xMile Championship (1:15pm)
This is it. This is the event that everyone is talking about. So many questions are flying around and there are so many different answers. Will there be a sub 16? Will it be fast or tactical? What are the lineups looking like? Who’s the favorite? Who’s going to win? This is why I’m here ladies and gentlemen. Let’s break this down and get those questions answered.
First off let me just say that Flotrack has done an article on this and did a really solid job. I have to say I agree with a lot of what they’re saying so I apologize if this comes off as very similar to theirs.
Flotrack gives us the preliminary start lists for five teams: Oregon, Stanford, Villanova, Georgetown, and Penn State. Right off the bat, these are teams that I feel very confident can all be in the top five. There isn’t another team out there with the firepower these teams have. However, I think it’s very fair to say that Penn State and Georgetown don’t have the depth that Oregon, Stanford, and Nova do.
Penn State has their two aces Kidder and Creese but will struggle with their other legs Fischer and Burkhardt. Let’s not forget to mention that Fischer and Burkhardt will be doubling back from the 5k the night before. With Penn State’s two weakest legs going on the double, you can’t feel super comfortable with how well they’ll perform. You need to hope that Creese and Kidder can make up for any slack there.
What was surprising was that Georgetown did not stack their relay. I raved about the Hoyas success indoors and when you have four guys under four it’s impossible not to think about the potential of a 4xMile. Alas, G-town will disappoint us and will put in only one of their sub four men from indoors (Bile). While only one of them is on the relay, Leibold and Fahy have displayed some very strong 1500’s so far this season. They have some great speed and could keep G-town in contention for a while. However, PA alum Ryan Gil boasts a PR of only 4:09 in the mile and I don’t believe he will be able to hold the pace with the guys upfront.
This is where we dig into the important stuff. Here are the supposed line-ups according to Flotrack (in no particular order)…
Oregon
Cheserek
Brewer
Elkaim
Alexander
Villanova
Williamsz
McEntee
DeNault
Tiernan
Stanford
McGorty
Olson
Korolev
Olson
Oregon has decided to run some of their less established runners while Villanova and Stanford have decided to run their full ‘A’ squad. Flotrack continues to keep Stanford in the conversation at this point. Quite honestly, I see them as a no brainer third place team. Korolev simply does not have the speed to keep up with these guys. His 8:13 3k (completely fresh) against Cal worried me that he might still be fatigued from his extended XC season. PA alum Tom Coyle is a great miler but still a bit inexperienced when facing big names like this. Even when you haveMcGorty on the anchor, I still don’t see him sticking around with Cheserek or Williamsz. McGorty has raw talent, but he’s not quite at that level yet. Stanford will get third.
That leaves the two powerhouses remaining. Let’s break it down by leg. This is arguably the hardest part. You’re not sure who’s going where. You can only give your best guess. This is where I differ from Flotrack a little bit.
Lead off
When discussing the lead off leg I’m a strong believer that your second best miler is the way to go. In this case, I give that label to Elkaim and DeNault. DeNault has shown that he can win races and can thrive off of any pace. If it’s fast, he’ll stay around long enough for you to regret it. Keep it conservative, and he’ll burn you with his kick. Keep in mind that he took a win away from Bile at Penn St. during indoors. Elkaim has some outstanding talent, but doesn’t seem to have the racing smarts some of his teammates do. I’m not saying Elkaim is going to get blown out, but I believe DeNault has the edge.
Nova- 3:59.12 (DeNault 3:59.12 split)
Oregon- 4:00.04 (Elkaim 4:00.04 split)
2nd leg
If I’m the coach, I’m sending the weakest link out on the second leg*. There are arguments as to where the weakest link goes on a relay, but that’s an argument for another day.For me, I’m putting McEntee and Brewer there. McEntee is an older guy with experience while Brewer doesn’t quitehave the credentials his fellow Ducks do. While he may not be at the form he was years back, I give McEntee the edge over a guy in the spotlight for the first time.
Nova-7:59.04 (McEntee 3:59.92 split)
Oregon-8:02.28 (Brewer 4:02.24 split)
*Just because I have the weakest link in the second leg doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be the slowest leg. It all depends on how the race plays out.
3rd leg
With the anchor legs being obvious choices, this leaves Alexander and Tiernan to battle it out. While the two milers are relatively equal, I have to give Alexander the edge. The Oregon miler has some recent wins under his belt which is a nice confidence booster. He’s also an experienced veteran who knows how to race. I’m a fan of Tiernan so I’ll predict that Tiernan doesn’t let him get too far away.
Nova- 11:59.62 (Tiernan splits 4:00.58)
Oregon- 12:02.24 (Alexander splits 3:59.96)
Anchor
If you can’t tell by now, the scenario in my head is that the racing would be pretty quick. I remember telling the writers that I didn’t think sub 16 wouldn’t happen and now I’m seeing two teams doing exactly that. Williamsz and Chesare the two best runners in the NCAA today. I don’t think there’s an argument there. Williamsz just recently ran the NCAA leading 1500 last weekend with a 3:39.53. He alsosplit a 3:55 on Villanova’s DMR at NCAA’s. The guy is an absolute beast. For Nova, this becomes a game of “catch me if you can”. By my predictions, Nova should have a 2.62 second lead over Cheserek. Is that enough for the guy who has run a 3:54.08 (converted) mile? Or will the heat-seeking missile known as Eddy Ches be able to catch and then outkick a guy who hasn’t had to make up any ground?I’m so conflicted but hey someone’s gotta make the tough decisions.
It’s such a bold call, but I feel that had it been anyone else on the anchor, Cheserek would be able to catch them.Williamsz is at one of the pinnacles of his career and he has no fear. Will I regret this? Probably. Cheserek always makes me look foolish and I’m sure he’ll do it again.
-Quick side note: watch out for Columbia. I really likingwhat they have going on and I’m not completely sold on that fifth spot going to Penn St.
4x800 Championship (4:40pm)
The last big (collegiate) event for the day, is the 4x800. I’m guessing that we won’t be seeing some record breaking times. However, I think the field is underrated in regards to the talent it has.
Georgia Tech and Texas A&M are my favorites in this race. Georgia Tech has multiple guys that have been hanging around 1:50 while Texas A&M is led by 1:48 man Josh Hernanedez and a slew of other guys under 1:50. Georgetown is also entered and has been known for it’s excellent depth at the 800. Penn State will look to show the crowd why they are called 800U. I’d like them more in this if Joey Logue wasn’t injured and Kidder wasn’t on the double. This leaves a heavy burden on Zavon Watkins and I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up with the field. The last team I’m looking at is Indiana. They haven’t had many big races but they hold a lot of depth and I think that will serve them well here. Villanova and Stanford are also entered here. I’m not sure where some of their guys will end up but you can’t ignore top programs like them. Especially with Villanova being the returning champs.
So how do I see it going down?
That’s all I’ve got! Hopefully this wasn’t too overwhelming. So let me hear it. What are you expecting?
Also, quick S/O to the Great Valley girls 4x800! As I’m writing this, I received word that they will move on to the championship race on Friday. This makes it the third year in a row for them. Good luck ladies!
Keep it real,
Garrett
Didn't you call the top 4 teams of the 4xmile?
ReplyDeleteHaha I won't hide it, I'm pretty proud someone noticed that. I did call it, although the way it was done was nowhere close to where I thought it'd be.
ReplyDelete