Penn Relays DMR Preview

Here we go! It's Penn Relays time ladies and gentlemen! It's very exciting to see PA's best on our home turf battling it out and chasing hardware. The first event I would like to discuss is the Distance Medley Relay, one of my favorite events and an event close to my own heart as my teammates from Upper Dublin won the title back in 2009. In fact, PA has had a ton of success in this event with wins in 2007 (Coatesville), 2008 (GFS), 2009 (Upper Dublin), 2013 (LaSalle) and 2014 (Henderson). Throw in a runner up finish in 2011 by CB South and our state has been killing it.

That runner up team in CB South back in 2011 was interesting because they were far from the favorites or the glamorous team. However, they had one of the most natural 1200m legs I can remember (Joey Waddington) and a ballsy group of other legs including Austin Gregor. Combine that with great coaching, a touch of 2010 experience and a lot of heart and you got one of PA's best Penn Relays stories in history.

This group of PA teams is not necessarily laden with stars or big names. We enter the meet with basically no top tier seeded teams and the last three teams to even qualify for the meet. But none of that matters anymore. You don't get any bonus for coming in with a fast seed and there is plenty of heart on these squads. Below I've tried my best to research all of the teams in this year's field. I used a combination of milesplit and information provided in comments to the blog to give 2015 bests and projected line ups for each team. Feel free to add additional information to help aid me and the readers on the event, all of these line ups are purely speculation.

St. Joe's Prep
Seed: 10:20.79 (NBIN)
Indoor States Finish: 3rd DMR
Projected Line Up: Isiah Fisher (4:36.70/2:03.20/3:15.62s), Miles Green (50.84/49.0s), Stephen McClellan (2:02.54/1:58.88s), john Daly (4:23.84y/4:15.65s)

It's hard not to root for this St. Joe's Prep squad. In a PCL often dominated by the powerhouse distance squads from LaSalle and O'Hara, Prep has quietly assembled one of the state's best DMRs the year after running a 7:53 4x800m. I feel this team has a little bit of a chip on it's shoulder, running so well last year and still missing out on the medal stand.

The Senior leaders Fisher and Daly are hungry for a big finish to their years. Fisher should be the lead off leg for Prep and he has been solid this year. He has run right around 16 minutes for 5k at Paul Short and was sub 2 minutes on their 2014 4x800m. Fisher also ran on the team's 4x8 that qualified for Penn Relays a year ago which should provide valuable experience. In a race that can get crowded, navigating the 1200m leg properly and keeping the team out of trouble is huge. That's a lot of pressure for Fisher and a good leg from him could dramatically swing things overall.

john Daly has been phenomenal this season on the relay. Although he hasn't popped a jaw dropping open mile, he has split 4:15 twice for SJP on their two best relays of the season. Any way you spin it, having a game changing anchor can carry a team from good to great and lower case J is that guy.

Stephen McClellan is only a sophomore, but he has been running phenomenally this season. At NBIN he split 1:58 to help keep Prep competitive in the race. SJP's expected 400m leg is freshman Miles Green who is fresh of a 49 split on SJP's sub 3:20 4x400m race. These guys are the X-Factor for the Prep relay in my eyes. They are both young, but talented and have delivered in big moments (Green won the frosh 400m at NBIN). Not many distance squads have sub 50 400m legs involved and a 48-49 split would be a huge momentum swing.

Bottom Line: This team has a nice mix of experience and upside. I think it comes down to if Fisher can hang tough towards the front of the pack and if Daly can find one more gear. If he somehow makes the jump to 4:12-4:13 there are few anchors in the field on that level.

Malvern Prep
Seed: 10:24.92 (NBIN)
Indoor States Finish: 6th DMR
Projected Line Up: Colin Wills (4:26.53y/1:59.46/3:09.12s), Addison Mueller (2:04.01/52.49s), Ryan Doane (2:07.02/2:00.97s), Billy McDevitt (4:17.05y) Other possibilities: Elijah King (52.41)

When all is said and done Colin Wills may end up as the best 1200m leg from PA. He and McDevitt return from last year's 4x800m squad and add some experience to the squad. There's been some well documented turn over on this Malvern Prep squad and despite the fact that McDevitt became a superstar during indoors, the DMR finished just 6th at states. However, they fired back at Nationals proving they belonged among the state's elite with a 10:24 run. I think the nationals result is a better indicator of how they will perform here at Penn than States simply because tired legs likely played a role in the team's finish at states.

Despite McDevitt's phenomenal individual record on the track (1:55.1 over Sauer and 4:17 at states over Brophy), he's yet to drop a corresponding split in a big moment. At both states and nationals he was above 4:20 on his anchor leg. If he can change that and get closer to his 4:15 potential (and there is no reason to think he can't) that's a quick 7 seconds that you can drop off that relay time.

Another idea that I think should be in play (but probably won't happen): Wills and McDevitt switch legs. McDevitt has show cased killer wheels on the track and he likely could run a phenomenal lead off leg. Plus the 1200m leg more closely mimics an individual event (which McDevitt has excelled at this year). Wills is still a low 4:20s miler and potentially faster with the right competition. As I've said the 1200m is a crucial leg and getting the stick around at or near the front at the race's start could be a game changer for Prep.

The middle legs have been solid for Prep as well. Mueller has produced some strong 800m performances and was solid at 400m at nationals. That 2:00.97 Doane split from NBIN surprised me and is a big deal. If he can give the team a sub 2 split on the middle leg that's huge.

Bottom line: If the middle legs produce like they did at Nationals, this team has a high ceiling. Especially if McDevitt can blast the jaw dropping split we know he is capable of.

Conestoga
Seed: 10:25.19 (PTFCA States)
Indoor Sates Finish: 2nd DMR
Projected Line Up: PJ Murray (4:26.04y/3:12.2s), James Cooper (54.44/2:00.31/52.9s), Killian Nelson (1:57.43/1:57.1s), Andrew Marston (4:18.58/4:17s) Other possibilities: Justin Eger (53.38)

So much of running revolves around momentum. The sport is incredibly mental in addition to it's obvious physical relevance. The team with the most momentum right now may be Conestoga who ran to a victory at Wiliam and Mary at the beginning of the year and followed things with a slew of PRs for their key cogs (most notably Marston and Nelson). The team has experience peaking at the right time and producing in big meets (they were 2nd indoors in the DMR and were 2nd at states in XC) which makes them dangerous in a setting like this.

However, Stoga has struggled a bit in national type meets. They had off days at NXN Regionals and Indoor Nationals which could be a cause for concern at this meet. Not to mention the fact that they did not have a relay involved in Penn Relays a year ago. That could also be problematic as experience, especially at a meet like Penn, usually ends up playing a role. Fortunately they do have a coach who knows a thing or two about Penn Relays (see Penntrack/YouTube for more).

But there is also plenty of good news for Stoga. They likely have the best 800m leg of any other PA team and, depending on how things unfold, the difference could be quite significant. Killian Nelson has split down in the slow 1:57s and now has added an open run in the 1:57 range. A 1:56 split would not be unreasonable. Couple that with a huge jump by Marston down to consistent sub 4:20 running (a zone he was not in during indoors) and this team has a lot to like on the back end.

PJ Murray was strong during indoors (even beating Marston in the mile at PSU) and had a solid 3:12 split at states in the DMR. If he can find a mark below 3:10 that would be a huge lift. Murray is also the only Junior on the squad. Cooper is a strong senior runner who has transformed himself from top 50 man in XC to quarter miler. The speed boost helped him drop to 2 flat this past weekend. He split "only" 52.9 at states indoors, but if he can bring his split to the 51 high range that could be a meaningful second.

Bottom Line: If the first two legs can run PRs, Stoga is likely PA's best shot at a top 3 finish.

GFS
Seed: 10:27.31 (PTFCA States)
Indoor States Finish: 4th DMR
Projected Line Up: Grayson Hepp (1:58.37/4:26.50/3:08s), Eli Schwemler (53.95), Joe Newman (4:41.21), Nick Dahl (4:19.60y), Other possibilities: Zach Schwartz (2:07.93), Mathias Hammer (2:08.69), Sarah Walker (2:07.56)

Germantown Friend's has a long legacy of producing well at this meet. But despite the wealth of experience this squad has put together in the past, this year's squad is quite young. Hepp, the team's expected 1200m leg, is just a Junior and sophomore Nick Dahl is likely going to have to carry the load on the anchor leg. That's quite a bit of pressure and last year this GFS team struggled a bit under that pressure. They had a disappointing run in the 4x8 at Penn after falling out of the medals at indoor states.

But this year's team may be different. They hung tough at indoor states and grabbed 4th place and all state honors. Grayson Hepp ran away with the lead off leg as well, holding his own at the tricky distance. Dahl has run fantastically in a few freshman races at Nationals and gone head to head with guys like Sam Ritz. This team flew across the country to Stanford, experienced the bright lights of top notch competiton, and learned a lot about their squad. Will that be enough to take the next step here at Penn Relays?

I'm a huge fan of their end legs, but the 4-8 legs have a few question marks. Technically speaking Sarah Walker's 2:07.56 is the fastest non Dahl/Hepp open 800m time this season. However, it's important to note that GFS ran an 8:11 4x800m (an average of under 2:03 per leg) implying to me that there is a 2:04ish leg in the mix with perhaps the potential for more. I'm not sure who exactly that leg is (I believe Newman was the guy on their indoor squad), but whoever it is, if they run a strong race like they did at TFCAofGP then this team goes from solid to contender. Plus, perhaps more importantly, it takes a bit of pressure of the sophomore Dahl on the anchor leg.

Bottom Line: If Hepp runs like he did at indoor states, he gives his middle legs the best competition and the best opportunity to succeed. Tough running from those middle legs gives Dahl a chance to be the hero.

Predictions
I can't just skimp out on the predictions! That would be pretty lame of me ...

So here we go here's my predictions for the PA squads. It was a tough one to pick and my gut says the race will mainly be decided on those 1200m legs. That being said, it's going to be an absolute dog fight. Good luck to all competing and continue to represent the state well!

1. Malvern Prep 10:19.15
2. St. Joe's Prep 10:19.77
3. GFS 10:21.62
4. Conestoga 10:22.11