I figure since I clearly don't want to do any homework today, I can throw out a little high school related stuff today. I'm actually going to be making some state predictions once the performance list comes out in the near future, but until then I guess I will just share some thoughts.
It's Russell in the mile and the doubling back to anchor the DM. That's it. That's all it will be. Henderson isn't worried about making any sort of statement, they are a strong team and they know it. They likely have big national goals the next weekend and are willing to rest up if necessary. You may get to see Moy and some of the other non-DMR legs in the open mile or 800m at states as well, although I wouldn't be surprised if everybody is kept fresh. I think most likely we see Moy to 4 leg to Thompson to Russell, but we also could see Russell to 4 leg to Moy to Barchet in which case you let Moy, Russell and Thompson chase individuals. They have options but clearly since Yale this team has not been about the 3k or the state title as a team. I hope this prediction proves to be accurate.
It's hard to pick against Russell to win the mile as well. He is miles ahead of the field with his most recent effort being an "off performance" and him still running 4:12.1 ... I mean the guy is in phenomenal shape and should dominate the field at states. But you never know I guess ...
Let me tell you something about Zach Brehm. I hope he gets into the fast heat of the 800m at states, but there are no guarentees and if that's the case one of two things could go down: we see a Luke Lefebure type upset or we see an awesome kick off a slow pace and a mid-level medal for a guy who deserves to be competing with the best in the state for gold. The 800m is flat out stacked right now, the top couple times include Wiseman and Francis at 1:53 on a flat track, Logue, Cather, Sauer and Lewis. All those marks will be seeded faster than Brehm's latest time at Lehigh (1:58.41 which will be converted to 1:57.81 banked).
So out of the times so far we have seen this season here are all the guys who could be seeded ahead of him:
1. Francis
2. Wiseman
3. Logue
4. Cather
5. Lewis
6. Sauer
7. Smart
8. Hoey
9. Brehm
10. Wilhoite
Wilhoite finishes just .01 behind him in the seeds at this moment. I'd expect probably 8 in the fast heat if they can help it, with a shot at 10. Everybody on this list besides Smart and Hoey I expect to be in it (perhaps Smart will give it a shot and Belfatto and James will also chase individuals, but O'Hara usually seems to be willing to make sacrifices for a greater team good).
Overall, my point is Brehm is in a precarious position. There are still plenty of big meets left for others around the state to time chase while Brehm (I think?) is done racing at big time invites. Also the Carlisle squad is going to be banished to the slow heat of the 4x8 in all likelihood as well. As a fan of the sport, I hope with all my might that Brehm manages to hold on to a spot in the fast heat, but this situation will be very interesting to watch develop. You gotta think guys like Wilhoite, Caldwell, Belfatto, Cooper and Adams are lurkin.
By the way, just think about how good this final can be? We are talking 1:51s by a couple guys, you run 1:53 and you might get 6th! I'm just sayin.
Colin Martin and Dominic Deluca are beasts. Maybe this isn't the sexy 3k match that everyone was thinking of with James and Russell and Ethan Martin, but I just want to point out that these two guys are straight flying. Deluca got a big upset win in a dominating performance in the mile after he soloed his state leading mark in the 3k. Then Colin Martin dropped a bomb with his 9:13 3200m! He would be lapping a lot of the best guys in the state! These two may not be the big names, but these two appear to be the guys battling for the state title, and perhaps even pushing each other down towards 8:30.
HUGE SLEEPER ALERT: Brendan Bilotta is a beast. The kid just ran 4:21 and beat out the likes of James, Belfatto and Smart the big 3 of O'Hara. Bilotta is going to be good this year and his mile-dmr double at states (purely speculatory here) might be big time. Remember when Magee stepped up big time with his 1:55 leg to get his team a gold? Well we may be seeing something to that effect in the near future break out performance style out of Bilotta.
etrain, as always, just enjoying the ride
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