PA HS States: 4x800m Preview

Hopefully these posts aren't coming in too fast, but I'd like to have all the previews up well before states if possible. So I'm going to keep plowing along. I've got all the individual events previewed below and this will start my section on the relays.

The cool think about the relays is we can usually tell which teams are going for it right away. Consider for example State College who held out 3 potential 800m medalists in order to go after the W (and state record in the 4x8). Then you have teams like Altoona who not only elected to keep all their runners fresh for the relays, but chose the 4x8 over the DMR where they were PA #2.

On the flip side you have teams like O'Hara who are doubling a variety of key legs in addition to Henderson and Lower Dauphin in the DM (we will get to them later). Can their legs come back and be a factor in the relays? Or will everybody be too spent?

That is the difficult question I will wrestle with as I move ahead on these predictions. First, it is worth noting that I think the 4x8s will be split into two sections (which is described a few posts down). In the slower section, we have teams like Pennridge, CB East, Bensalem, CR South and Bonner who all will have at least their fastest leg on the double (unless that fastest leg chooses to save up for the 4x4 or something of the sort). It's hard to figure out who to pick in this heat.

It all comes down to who is ready to double and who has the best supporting cast. I think the winner of this heat will likely be either Pennridge (but only if Logue is on the relay, which it's very possible will not be the case), Bensalem or CR South. I think that Francis, Logue and Wiseman will all be pretty tired after the previous 800m final, but one of them should be able to dig down and uncork a monster double running guys down from some of these other teams without the big names. I would bet it most likely ends up being whoever did the worst in the open 8 who has that little extra spark on the 4x8 to try and help the team. If I have to pick I go Bensalem over CR South just because Bensalem is the defending champs. But this may end up being a CR South team like the Dreeman team that did so well a couple years back.

In the fast heat, I think State College is a heavy favorite here, despite an excellent year from the O'Hara team and the lurking sleepers of Altoona, Penncrest, DT East and North Penn. Look, I think O'Hara is a fantastic team and I believe they will give Henderson a run for their money in the DMR whenever the two meet again (Nationals I'd imagine?), but with Belfatto, Smart and James all on the double (James on the double from the 3k!), it's hard to bet on these guys for an upset. I think last year when Savage tried the 3k-4x8 double we all saw how brutally tough that double is. James is one tough son of a gun (definitely on my top 5 toughest runners list), but I'm not sure he can swing anything better than a 1:58ish on the double. That just ain't gonna cut it against State College.

Here is the thing about SC, they have the home track advantage, their slowest leg has an open PR this season under 1:58 (1:57.7h) and they have one of, if not the, best 800m runners in the state on the anchor. Cather will be doubling and that won't be easy, but the rest of the guys will be fresh and ready to drop something fast.

Keep in mind the state record currently sits at 7:45.06 by CB West. The splits on that relay were: 1:56.7, 1:57.1, 1:56.3 and 1:54.7. They had Abington (who at the time were the state record holders) pushing them for part of the race, but most of it was just good old fashion front running.

So do I think SC has a shot at this record? I think the competition needs to be there but in my head I can see splits that average out to about 7:44-7:46 without needing to be all that bold about it. The next best relay I can see is maybe 7:50-52, so I don't know if that will be enough to push SC to the record or not, but it should be fun to watch.

Where will the rest of the pieces fall? I think Altoona is a great team to watch here. They have a similar home track advantage and have had 3 guys already at 2:00 or faster in the open if my memory serves. They are clearly all in for the relay and that will go a long way towards beating some other top tier teams. I think O'Hara will still battle for the #2 spot, despite having a tired squad, but in the end, I can't see them hanging with A-toon.

I like the DT East team and the North Penn squad a lot going into this weekend. I think DT East has proven they have 3 sub 2 legs on the roster based on the individual performances. Caldwell is a fairly strong doubler, and a mile-4x8 double isn't anything too crazy. DT East could definitely be under 8 minutes and in that chase pack behind SC. It will be interesting to see if DTE uses Caldwell on the third leg as they did last year outdoors which proved to be a very smart strategy.

As for North Penn they are ALWAYS good at the 4x8. Without fail they run it and they run it well. This year they have a strong bunch of athletes to go with their strong mid-d training. I think NP will almost definitely run sub 8 minutes and will be very dangerous for 2nd place. Grace will try the double but other than that they kept their pieces fresh for the relay.

You can never truly count out teams like Upper Darby at a meet like this. Plenty of potential to surprise here. They were one of my big sleepers a year ago and they came up short, but I won't hesitate to bet on them again. Abington may be returning to old form as well and be a nice sleeper.

You also have to seriously consider Pennsbury in this race. I'll admit it, I picked against them basically every chance a got a year ago and Sam Webb and Connor Harriman doubled like men out there and proved me wrong consistently for doubting them. Now the pressure is on Sauer and O'Connell to pull of the double with Harriman and Webb (I'm asusming) not on the line up this weekend. I'm doubting they can truely compete with these other teams on those tired legs, but with a state title on their minds, they need every point they can get. Be on the look out.

St. Joe's may be able to surprise as well. They bowed out of the DMR despite having run 10:49 and getting the SQS. They must have a lot of confidence in their 4x8 potential after a solid showing last year and will also have a completely fresh team which is always dangerous.

Here's how I have things shaping up in the end:
1. State College 7:46.77
2. Altoona 7:52.90
3. O'Hara 7:53.40
4. North Penn 7:54.49
5. DT East 7:56.16
6. Penncrest 7:57.87
7. St. Joe's Prep 8:05.66
8. Upper Darby 8:06.50