Just a few bullet points to keep an eye as we move towards the biggest meet of indoors. Lots of exciting stuff is going down.
First off, the State College boys are killing it. They now have all four relay members qualified for the state championships and each has run under 1:58.00. That's very impressive and very intimidating for other teams trying to win the 4x8. That being said, does this mean State College is obligated to run all three legs in the open? They all at least have a chance at medaling individually (something like 4 guys in the top 12 converted times in the state), but doubling all 4 of your relay members can leave yourself very vulnerable if O'Hara decides to keep Smart and Belfatto out of the open 8 and save them for a relay title. That being said, if O'Hara goes DMR (an event that I believe is what their team is best fit for, but likely will only run it at Nationals), then State College looks to be a comfortable favorite in the 4x8 and should be able to double their legs in the 8 and 4x8 and still be the favorites to win. Think back to the North Penn team in 2008 for an example.
Also major props to Alex Milligan who qualified for states individually in the mile this weekend. State College is so deep they have a guy on their bench who can run 4:30.9h for the mile, pretty sick stuff.
The State College boys also make things a bit more difficult for Zach Brehm. By my count when you convert his time to 1:57.81 banked for the 800m that puts him 11th in the state. He will need people to pull out from ahead of him and he will need them to put 10 guys in the fast heat. I talked about the potential for Brehm to not get in the fast heat a few posts back, but I think, now that all qualifiers have revealed themselves, he ought to be safe. I expect a few names to pull out of the 800m leaving the door open for a 10 man final that includes Brehm (and also hopefully includes guys like Francis, Logue, Cather, Wiseman, Sauer and Lewis). Also worth noting, Brehm did race this weekend for Carlisle as far as I can tell, despite his team having the potential to either upgrade their relay position with a DMR or 4x8, or he could have upgraded his mile or 800m position in a couple of fast races. Hopefully he is not injured.
37 men have qualified in the 800m, 46 men in the mile! I'm sure lots will pull out from both, but seriously the PTFCA has to consider changing that mile standard. I feel like it is just too easy these days. Henderson could have qualified almost their whole top 7 for the state meet, despite being a team of mostly 2 milers.
Ross Wilson and Kyle Francis made intriguing statements in the mile this weekend. Francis has been a roll as of late, but I really feel like he ought to throw his hat in the 800m ring in a race that will get a lot of guys PRs and probably have one or two down around the 1:51 mark and the state record. Wilson is definitely better suited for the 3k, but he could still be a medalist in the mile and help his relay. He is a selfless guy whose season was cut short indoors by a Footlocker Appearence which usually makes a lot of guys opt mile over 3k (Tarsnane, Furcht, Springer come to mind in recent memory). I would much rather see Wilson in the 3k, but it is looking more and more like the mile.
The 3k is up to 20 names now. They won't be adjusting this field. Thrilled McGoey is in, but Martin racing a lot of 3ks already this season. Deluca quite the opposite, just laying low all year with only two significant races worth noting. Interested to see who's strategy plays out better. Right now I'm leaning towards picking neither of them come states time.
Props to Will Loevner (in the 60s at A states in XC and a 4:31 1600m as a freshman last year) for dropping a bombshell of 8:55 on that field. Nice to see Molino also sneak an SQS in. He has to run a lot of 3ks in a row now, but he is a talent guy so he might be a nice sleeper.
14 DMR teams qualified and GV is the 15th who is literally fractions of a second off the SQS (kind of surprised they didn't try to lower that time, perhaps a little over confident that mark would hold up?)
They may not have to add more teams than that although CB South or WC East would be nice stories. Out of the 14 teams with qualifying times I think just about everyone will compete at this event at states which is bad news for anyone without the time. Here is how I expect to definitely go DMR at states:
Henderson, Altoona, Lower Dauphin, HG Prep, Radnor, GFS, Malvern, CR North, Quakertown, St. Joe's Prep (a total of 10 schools right there)
I also think it is very possible that we could see Bensalem and LaSalle in the event as well. LaSalle ran a nice 4x8 last weekend and that may be an easier double for Bilotta so I think the 4x8 is at the very least equally likely for LaSalle. Bensalem may let Francis try a mile-8 double in which case they might just throw their B squad in the 4x8. However, they also could just easily double Francis back to see what kind of monster anchor leg he could run (or possibly monster 1200m leg, you can't rule that one out).
The only teams I'm relatively sure won't enter are O'Hara and North Penn. I think O'Hara would rather try their luck in the 4x8 with fresh pieces than double guys back for the DMR, but that's just an opinion, I could easily end up being wrong. Meanwhile, North Penn always does the 4x8. ALWAYS. If they pick the DMR I'll be stunned.
So without adding in GV's time (which is not an SQS keep in mind), we are looking at a 10-12 team field. So keep in mind, there is a chance GV does not get in. I think they more than most likely will, but they don't actually have the time and they didn't even try to get faster this weekend. The DMR (before the PTFCA went on a huge adding lots and lots of people spree) used to be strictly the fastest 10 teams, so they shouldn't have a problem with a 10 man field, let alone 12. If I'm Great Valley, I'm sweating at least a tiny bit right now about not getting in. If I'm anybody sitting behind Great Valley, I'm prepping my 4x8 team (if qualified) to go out there and try and take care of business.
Looking ahead:
Lot's of controversy already at the USA indoor track championships, I'm hoping to fill you guys in on the scandal in the near future
Also once the performance list comes out for states there will be lots more to talk about in the HS ranks
Plus some DMR madness in the college ranks leaving the door open for Nova to miss NCAAs!
And the Centennial Conference Championships are coming! One of the best distance conferences in D3 will be on display
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