As a friendly reminder you can see the full list of entries either on www.usatf.com or on my post a couple spots down previewing the event.
Based on my research up to this point, I see no signs of a performance list for the event, so this will be highly speculative writing going on for the next couple paragraphs. I'd love to hear other opinions or comments below if you have time to throw something down.
So let's get into predicting shall we!
Last year's results indicate that they will take 6 athletes to the 800m final from a field of what looks like 3 heats of 6-7 (there are a total of 20 entrants, but I'm not sure all will stay entered if they have qualified in other events they would rather run). The final a year ago featured Erik Sowinski (1st), Robby Andrews (2nd) and Tyler Mulder (3rd) who were all under 1:47.5. In order to qualify for the world championships, you must finish in the top 2 of the runners who have the World A Standard (1:47.00 or 1:44.00 last outdoors).
So briefly scanning the entries the following men enter the race with the A standard already in their back pocket: Sowinski, Rutt, Symmonds (outdoors), and Gagnon. Anybody else who wants to punch their ticket to Sopot (city in Poland where World Indoors will be held), better run under 1:47 this weekend at the US champs meet. In other words, if my boy Robby wants to go, he better stick his nose in this one.
Looking down the list of entries, I'd say there is only a select group of guys I could see making the final based on a combination of talent, experience and tactical savvy. The names I have in mind right now are in order by season best:
1. Mike Rutt
2. Erik Sowinski
3. Brian Gagnon
4. Robby Andrews
5. James Gilreath
6. Nick Symmonds
7. Harun Abda
8. Mark Wierzoreck
9. Mark Husted
10. Casmir Loxsom
11. Tyler Mulder
12. Nick Guarino
(Worth noting, Guarino and Waterman are D3 guys mixing it up on the Pro Level, PA's Owen Dawson is listed to compete and Richard Jones was the lead off leg of the recent world record 4x8, I also left him off the list)
Only half of these guys can make the final, and some of them will have their changes seriously damaged depending on which heat they land in. Based on the way the times are spread out it's conceivable to see some type of Rutt, Symmonds, Mulder heat or something like, which would make it a real challenge for anyone else to bust through. There will be one auto qualifier from each heat and 3 total at large bids to the final.
Without knowledge of the heats, you can only do some careful guess work about who has the smarts to make it to Sunday in one piece. Symmonds, Sowinski and Rutt are my three guys I would be stunned to see miss the final. I recently talked about how well Sowinski and Rutt have been running as of late and I don't see their momentum suddenly dropping off.
Rutt has excellent indoor credentials including a second place finish at NCAAs and he made a world championship final in the 800m a few years back. Meanwhile, Sowinski is the US leader at 800m and 1000m this season, with a 600m USR and 4x800m WR on his resume. If these guys stay on their feet and off the rail (ahem, Nick Willis, ahem) then they will be one step closer to Poland.
Symmonds is the most talented guy in the field by a long shot. He has a 1:42 PR and only two other guys have ever broken 1:45 before (Mulder and Andrews). But Symmonds is not known for his strong running indoors. He has put an emphasis on it this season as his one man hype machine has looked to put the Brooks guys on the map, but is this just all talk or serious plans? Symmonds wants the AR outdoors in the 800m so he isn't going to waste peak form on Albuquerque. That being said, the man has self respect and competitiveness. He has gotten it handed to him twice now during his last two marquee races and I doubt he wants to let these guys get the best of him again if he can help it. He is tactically sound, very experience and just flat out faster than everybody else. I expect him in the final.
Three spots left, who has what it takes to lock one up?
Well there is the relative no name guys (Husted, Gilreath, Guarino)
The recent grad 600m specialists (Loxsom, Abda)
The almost big names (Gagnon, Wizzo)
And the bigger names (Andrews, Mulder)
Husted made this list because he skated into the final last year on time in a heat led by Mulder and Sowinski. He can get lucky again, but I doubt you will see him in. Guarino was 7th last year and just missed cracking the top spot. He has been steadily improving, but his PBs don't suggest he belongs in a final like this, he is also out. Abda is a bit of a long shot. He has the talent to be a real factor in this kind of race, he has run around 1:16 for 600m, but ultimately, he hasn't shown superior fitness this season and was never a star at championship races. So Abda is also out for me.
Gilreath comes in at 1:48.20, giving him a faster seed time than even Nick Symmonds. But Gilreath is a relative unknown and perhaps a bit out of his league at this time. I won't put his changes at 0, but I still won't quite jump on the bandwagon.
This leaves me with my big 5 of Loxsom, Gagnon, Wizzo, Andrews and Mulder.
Here's the thing, Andrews has the talent and the speed to kick somebody down and make a final. But the only way he is making a final. He won't be the one to push the pace and he very easily can mistime his jump and end up a few ticks of the last guys in on time. Andrews has super nice upside, but as a betting man I have to go against my fan biases here and pick against him to get in. Way too much risk for a guy like this on an indoor track.
Meanwhile, Andrews' partner Brian Gagnon is doing work this year. He did a nice pace job at Millrose, ran a nice leg on the 4x8 for NJNY and is one of the few guys sitting their with the A standard. He is comfortable at a fast pace and he will go for it out on the track. I think this guy has great odds of getting in on time, so I'm on the bandwagon hardcore. I have both UCONN guys in my final.
Down to 2 spots left and 3 guys to pick from.
I'll make this first part easy to build up the drama. Mulder is in. 1:44 PR, the final last year, not afraid of an pace and consistently performs at the top level. Congrats Tyler.
Which means I can only pick one Brooks guy! Ouch this is tough. A year ago, I definitely would have had Wizzo over Cas. Cas was a time trialing fiend, but he didn't have any sort of luck getting through rounds and making finals. But last year we saw a new Cas Loxsom. He finished the year with 2 hard fought second places and ran some nice rounds at USAs before just missing the final (a very talented final keep in mind). Cas also had a very quick split recently trying to make up Matt Sherer ground.
But that argument seems kinda flawed because so did Wizzo.
Wizzo has been at the top a bit longer than Cas and has been racing the pros longer than Cas as well. He certainly has an edge in experience and even beat Cas the last time the two raced head to head in a Brooks only 800m led by Symmonds. But does Wizzo have the firepower to mix it up off any pace and grab a time qualifer?
This is my toughest pick of the bunch, but I'm taking Cas narrowly. I think at the very least, Cas will help keep the pace quick and that should help him sneak in with one of the last spots in the final.
Cool, now we have a final: Rutt, Gagnon, Sowinski, Mulder, Symmonds and Loxsom
In the final, I think things will stay at least reasonably quick. Sowinski and Mulder should be out front, Mulder needs the standard so he will have a vested interest in keeping it quick. Loxsom, too I'd imagine won't be afraid to get up in the mix. This leaves Rutt and Symmonds licking their chops in the back with big time kicks and Gagnon somewhere in the middle (not really sure if he has a signature racing style). With 200m to go, Sowinski should be at the front looking to drive for home like he did a year ago. If Symmonds is on his game, he and Rutt will be trailing just behind, moving ahead of a fading Mulder and Loxsom.
On the last lap it will be another close battle between Sowinski and Rutt/Symmonds, both of whom remember the last time he just barely beat them out. Can Sowinski continue to edge out these guys, or will they get their revenge? Part of me feels like the revenge factor is too sweet to pass on, but Sowinski's winning streak and defending champion status make him fairly enticing in this spot.
In the end, I'll call it this way:
Sowinski 1:46.88
Rutt 1:46.90
Symmonds 1:47.01
Gagnon 1:47.20
Mulder 1:47.57
Loxsom 1:48.12
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