PA HS State: DMR Preview

While I'm sitting here might as well knock everything out right now. This will be my final preview post. I'll put the links to my other previews within this post for easy access.
3000m
800m
4x800m
Mile
projected heat sheets

So now let's begin the final distance event: the DMR.

I'm very intrigued to see how Henderson attacks this relay. They have so much depth and have tried so many different combinations it's tough to say exactly what strategy they will employ. They may let Russell lead off and dominate the 1200m leg while leaving Barchet to anchor and Moy to the 8. They may instead try Moy on the 12 and Thompson on the 8. Or they may even just throw in a team of fresh legs let by Stratman who is not entered in the mile and let them go for a medal. I feel the most likely case is the Moy-4 leg- 8 leg- Russell approach where the 8 may end up being someone like Stratman and the 4 someone like Thompson.

The Henderson boys have won the DMR state title twice before (and almost a third time against Wissahickon). The two previous times they won were quite different. The first time, Aldrich, Ferry, Jervis and Shea almost all chased individual glory (Jervis was rested) and despite having a sick Aldrich they still got a quality anchor carry out of Ferry to bring home gold. Then Henderson won again in 2010, with a fresh team besides the doubling Luke Lefebure who grabbed double gold thanks to the team's narrow victory over Wade Endress and the Altoona boys (a fantastic race that we came close to seeing duplicated this year perhaps).

So what's the take away here? Henderson can win it with tired guys, especially if they are the clear cut best team like they were in 2007 (they were national champs the next week). I see this Henderson team the same way I see the 07 team, the 09 Upper Dublin Team and the 13 LaSalle team. They are clearly the best squads so despite a hoard of doubling individuals (Reilly, Palmisano, Stone, Coyle) they could still manage to get the W without all that much fear. Admittedly in 07 and 13 there were  some excellent anchors that made Ferry and Coyle work (Crits, Kaulbach, Zingarini, Huemmler), but in the end those top teams could kick to victory. In 09 UD won without much effort at all really it was never close.

I don't see this one getting close. Henderson can get the baton around to Russell in a good spot and I think he will have no problems anchoring the team home for his second gold of the day. I'm not sold on a fast time, but I think they will be under 10:20 which is an impressive mark with doubling guys.

The other reason I think Henderson can dominate this field is that most of its main competitors are doubling all sorts of guys as well. Lower Dauphin is doubling Groh and Nissley (and Weidner), HGPrep has Kardish in the 3k (really hard double), LaSalle is doubling Bilotta, Radnor is doubling Hanson and Holm, Malvern is doubling Hoey, Willis/McDevitt and Ferraiolo. All of these teams will face similar issues to Henderson without the 4:11 anchor to ease their nerves.

Keep in mind, this leaves the door wide open for the kings of the DMR in years past: GFS! They are somehow always in the mix and this year, despite not having the big name studs on the roster, GFS has managed to fly under the radar with a 10:40 at Yale and no real other stand out marks. But once they get to states GFS has grabbed more DMR medals then anybody else since they reincorporated in back in 07. Watch out for these guys as a sleeper.

CR North may also surprise as well. Rob Simmons is a nice leg and Ross Wilson can follow in Zingarini's footsteps quite nicely if he can power through on the final leg. This CRN team is a lot like last year's squad and the Campbell anchored squad that was up near the front in 11 vs. Wissahickon.

LaSalle is the defending champs. Radnor was one of my favorite sleeper teams for the DMR as well. With tired legs I can't pick them for any sort of upset, but they will still be a factor. Malvern Prep's success has been well documented and they have a great young anchor of their own to help carry the load.

Then we have the likes of WC East, CB South, Quakertown and Great Valley one whom, in all likelihood, will snag a medal. Teams that just edge under the SQS or don't even hit it all still manage to find their way on to the podium every year. It's a trend that these teams hope to continue. East will have a tough time because of the doubling Cummings, but Quakertown and CB South are completely fresh. CB South had a nice performance after not hitting the SQS a few years back with Waddington (amazing 1200m guy) and Gregor who medaled at states and then were second at Penn Relays. I'm not sure this team is that good, but they know how to get results in the relays. Great Valley was DMR state champs not too long ago in 12 and probably have that in mind as they toe the line this weekend.

I worry about doubling guys, especially young doubling guys and guys doubling off the 3k. And this year that makes me worry about a lot of different teams. That makes predictions very tricky. I think Henderson controls this race and wins from outfront behind Russell's dominating anchor leg. I think GFS ends up stay sneaky close through the first few legs and holds on to be in the top group. Most likely LaSalle, Malvern and CRN will be among the teams trying to run them down at the end.

My final predictions are as follows:
1. Henderson 10:16.12
2. GFS 10:25.19
3. LaSalle 10:27.80
4. Malvern Prep 10:29.11
5. CRN 10:29.34
6. Radnor 10:36.69
7. CB South 10:40.15
8. Quakertown 10:42.65