In the Class "A Team"

by Jarrett Felix

I talked a decent amount about the team rankings on my first edition of the podcast, but I figure I owe you guys some official rankings in print. I broke it down by each classification this time as well. Showing all the programs some love. Pretty standard stuff.

Oh yeah and every team gets a Drake quote.

10. North Allegheny
Drake Quote: “Bow, bow, bow to me, drop down to your knees / NA the mafia that’s word to Hershey’s trees” – Moment 4 Life

Interpretation: North Allegheny has proven time and time again that they will deliver in the clutch. They’ve produced a top five team each of the last ten seasons. Sometimes you have to just trust the program. That being said, success is earned not given and these guys will need to continue to improve as a unit if they are going to shoot up the team standings.

9. Seneca Valley
Drake Quote: “The young splitters that everybody out west fear / The game needs change and we’re the fast-running cashiers” – Successful

Interpretation: Is this the year? SV topped North Allegheny in a dual meet and they are hoping to be the change in the west. At WPIALs they can topple a decade long winning streak with a big day. Also, this team is young, led by two sophomores and peppered with returners. Hence the young splitters that everybody out west fears. I just need to see one more big invite from this guys before I completely buy in. Remember, they were 3rd at RWB.

8. Mechanicsburg
Drake Quote: “Just as a reminder to myself / I wear every single chain, even when I’m in the house” – Started From The Bottom

Interpretation: Mechanicsburg is not your traditional top 10 power and they’ve worked hard over the past few seasons to climb up the district latter. They are hopefully appreciating every medal they win and remembering all the hard work it took to get to this point. Now can they go from the bottom to the very top? Or will they bow out in an ultra-competitive district?

7. Lower Dauphin
Drake Quote: “The game ain’t always fair and that’s the thing though / You can’t play your heart out, everybody don’t get a ring though” – Made

Interpretation: Lower Dauphin has put on some gutsy performances over the past two seasons. They’ve qualified three individuals for states both years. But they haven’t had the opportunity to go to states. This year, even with all their talent out front, it could potentially happen again. Even if they run their hearts out.

6. Hempfield
Drake Quote: “I’m living life right now man / And this what I’m do ‘til it’s over, ‘til it’s over / But it’s far from over” – Over

Interpretation: Hempfield should be pretty pleased with themselves. They’ve won back to back district 3 titles. They just finished as PA’s top team at the Paul Short Invite for the second straight year. They have a dynamic top 3, a great #4 and a competitive battle for #5. And honestly, their dreams of a 3rd straight title are from over. On the right day, they have a shot at Carlisle if everything comes together for that pack yet again.

5. O’Hara
Drake Quote: “I never throw away that paper with my grammy speech / Because I haven’t hit the pinnacles I plan to reach” – Aston Martin Music

Interpretation: O’Hara has had some incredibly painful close calls over the past half decade. They lost two state championships on tie breakers and then had two hard fought 3rd place finishes despite placing three runners in the top 30 on both occasions. But they haven’t thrown away their state championship dreams in 2016 and with another potent top 3 at their disposal and a group of seniors facing their last shot, maybe this is finally O’Hara’s year.

4. LaSalle
Drake Quote: “Cause we got a really big team / And they need some really big rings / They need some really nice things / Better be comin’ with no strings” – Big Rings

Interpretation: LaSalle does in fact have a large number of athletes on their team. And I’d imagine they want those metaphorical PCL and State Championship rings. Both of which would be nice things. And they want to do it against the state’s best on their best day, including rivals O’Hara. LaSalle has done big things in the past thanks to their pack running, but this year they’ve been leaning heavily on a strong core of front runners. If they can utilize that really big team to bust out a dangerous 4-5, then they could be on top of the podium.

3. CR North
Drake Quote: “Watching all these kids who thought they had it figured out / And then November came, they let me boys out” – I’m Good

Interpretation: These guys know how to peak at the right time. If you look at their runs over the last few seasons, they’ve gone from disappointing results to top 5 in the state somewhat consistently. At the end of October and beginning of November, they seem to turn it on. The question is can they turn it on enough to win the title? It will also be interesting to watch their #6 and #7 runners to see how they develop. I’m a fan of this team and like their upside, but they’ve got work left to do to get in position for title favorite. Worth noting, I do think they win Districts in a couple weeks.

2. DT West
Drake Quote: “They gon’ ask if I can win states back to back / Yeah, we want it back to back” – Back 2 Back

Interpretation: The obvious quote. Can they go back to back like Henderson and North Penn before them? Or will they end up like Coatesville, Henderson and North Allegheny before them (and get second the year after winning the title)? I wrote about the possibility of a title run all the way back in the beginning of the season. A lot of my numbers seem to indicate they could jump Carlisle at the state meet. But they still need to show me more to get the #1 spot.

1. Carlisle
Drake Quote: “Cashing checks and I’m bigging up my chest / Y’all keep talking bout who next / But I’m about as big as it gets” – All Me

Interpretation: A lot of people (including myself) are looking for a team that can beat Carlisle come states. We talk about how wide open this year is and how the state championships should be wild. But Carlisle has gone out and beaten all the PA teams they’ve faced. They’ve been consistent in the early season, they’ve made big improvements from last year and they have a record of peaking well for districts/states. We can keep talking about who is next, but in the meantime Carlisle is going to keep doing its thing. And doing it well.


AA
5. Harbor Creek
Drake Quote: “Whole city going crazy / Top 5 no debating / Top 5, Top 5, Top 5” – Grammys

Interpretation: I’m very much in on the Harbor Creek squad for this season. I think they have an awesome core of young talent. However, we score five guys in XC. So it’s the top five that will decide the title. Harbor Creek has a bit of a drop off from #4 to #5. How much can they close that gap? And how much will it matter come states?

4. Grove City
Drake Quote: “When you figure out its all right here in Grove City / And you don’t run from where we come from / That sound like Poetic Justice, Poetic Justice / You were so new to this life but after four years you got adjusted” – Poetic Justice

Interpretation: Since moving from AAA to AA in 2012, Grove City has been one of the AA powers. They’ve built a nice resume in the classification. However, they’ve yet to grab that state gold. They were runners up in 2012 (when I believe I picked them to win) and in 2014 (when I believe I also picked them to win) so it would be Poetic Justice if this year (when I don’t pick them to win) if they pull out the gold. They’ve got a great front runner and an improving pack, but they will need to make a jump from Foundation if they are going to get on the podium.

3. Greensburg Salem
Drake Quote: “Ain’t heard my album? Who you sleepin’ on? / You should print the line-up out and have a racing read-along” – Blogging Problems

Interpretation: They aren’t a traditional power, but we shouldn’t be sleeping on Greensburg Salem. They have an absolutely fantastic top three that no one else in this classification can match if all three guys are at their best. Their 4-5 hung very well at Foundation which nearly got these guys an upset victory. Don’t sleep on Greensburg Salem.

2. Dallas
Drake Quote: “But get it while you here boy / Cause all that hype don’t feel the same next year boy” – I’m On One

Interpretation: The defending champions from Dallas returned just about everyone from their title run in 2015 and will still return just about everyone for the 2017 XC season. But they can’t let a golden opportunity for gold slip away in 2016. At Foundation, they had their hands full with both York Suburban and Greensburg Salem plus they will have to deal with the always dangerous Grove City and Holy Ghost Prep. Nothing is guaranteed so Dallas will have to rise to the occasion again in 2016.

1. York Suburban
Drake Quote: “I might be too strung out on compliments / Overdosed on confidence / Beating PA’s best so stopped fearing the consequence” – Headlines

Interpretation: York Suburban won the Foundation Invite last year and entered states as the favorite over a young Dallas squad. However, Dallas turned the tables on the 2014 state champs and pulled off the upset in November. Could we be in for the same story this year? Hopefully, YS continues to stay hungry between now and their return trip to Hershey, despite their newly acquired favorite status.

A
5. Montrose
Drake Quote: “Way too many questions you must think I trust you / You searching for answers I do not know nothing (Woo!)” – Jumpman

Interpretation: I don’t actually know if Montrose is A this year. That’s why the quote is what it is. But assuming I’m right and they are, this team is going to be a force. They’ve got a strong pack and some front runners who could make noise as sleeper picks for medals. They should enjoy being in a lower classification this year.

4. Northeast Bradford
Drake Quote: “Gold chains and champagne / You want true, that’s true enough / Train’s list like every year / My office is my state bus” – No Lie

Interpretation: NEB always finds a way to contend in A. They won the first ever title in that classification back in 2012 (hence gold chains) and they have carved out a nice slot for themselves among the top five teams every year. But can they break through and get back on the podium this year? They’ve finished just outside the top 2 each year since their victory but with Casey Ellis and Garret Smith providing strong front running (Ellis looks like he could be their first top 10 guy since Williams and Jewett) I like their odds of contending.

3. Seneca
Drake Quote: “I’ve been waiting way too long long long long / Tellin’ everybody that I know we about to be on on on on” – Show Me a Good Time

Interpretation: Seneca has been a power for the last three seasons ever since the Myers twins came aboard. However, they’ve yet to finish in the coveted top 2 spots and get their turn on the podium. After a breakthrough on the track that featured a state gold in the 4x8, I think Seneca could finally be ready to get some XC hardware. The Myers twins should both be state medal contenders, but the pack will have to move up and secure some spots in the top 50 if they are going to contend with the two teams ranked ahead of them.

2. Elk County Catholic
Drake Quote: “Keeping people fed is my only peace of mind now / And I turn the six upside down, it’s a nine now” - 9

Interpretation: Elk CC seems determined to get to states and win their rematch with Winchester Thurston. The district nine school as turned their line up from RWB somewhat upside down, due in large part to the continued progression of a pair of ultra talented freshman in the 4-5 spot. Wortman looks great as a front runner as well. Their 2-3 last year were right around 50th. If they move up 20 or spots and the freshman deliver this could be the A version of Dallas from a year ago, pulling off the upset.

1. Winchester Thurston
Drake Quote: “I got money to blow, I’m getting’ the wins / letting these times drop all over your skin” – Money to Blow


Interpretation: Winchester Thurston has been killing it so far this fall. You can make a strong case that they are the best team in District 7. Regardless of size. Out front, they have a monster group of front runners in Ben Littman, Shaun Hay and Tristan Forsythe. So monster in fact, that they could win convincingly at Slippery Rock without Forsythe in the line-up. But the key difference between this year’s team and the two previous squads is that WT has a little extra depth to protect against a possible injury to one of their top guys. They shouldn’t have to live or die by the injury bug in quite the same way they have in the past. So in that sense, I suppose they have money to blow. 

23 comments:

  1. Other than CRN being too high, it's a great list. Those Tennant Invite times aren't right though.

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    1. Its nice to use comparison when talking XC and much has been said about the Tennent Invitational being short or "downhill fast". So, let's look at how the Tennent results might translate into State Medal results based on last year's outcome.

      Name 2015 Tennent Result 2015 State Result
      Fortna 1st 15:44 12th 16:06
      Shah 2nd 15:47 16th 16:11
      Rusty 3rd 15:49 19th 16:13
      Iatarola 4th 15:51 25th 16:19

      Based on the above, one could say that a time of 15:51 or lower at Tennent has a decent shot at being a State Medalist in the AAA race. Of course the cast of characters changes every year and stuff happens like illness and injury which all could affect the outcome. However, it's safe to say that Rusty is a given, but we can also say that Rahill, Hutton & a slew of CRN guys are the real deal and in the conversation for state medals and easily in the top 50....

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  2. i'm a bit lost on our use of relations here and history in order to discuss this william tennent meet. i was just listening to your podcast etrain, and you stated you don't see anyone other than DT West being able to place 4 runners in the top 50. This being said, with Evan Hutton and Sean Rahill so high on your list (presumably in state medalist and a top 35 placement) then runners just 5-9 seconds back like we saw at Tennent in Earley and Haas and Keller would all have legitimate shots at top 50 placements at the state meet. This is also not taking into account a) the meet history of Tennents invitational last season after a course change and b) CR North's historic ability to peak over teams like Tennent at leagues and districts.

    just wondering where you have Haas and Earley right now. (Also to note Earley ran with Haas and Campbell all last season until a late season injury hick-up right before districts and states). i very much agree that after the top 5 this team has a very large drop off, but i'm interested to see your logic here on ranking this top 4 worse than DT West's.

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  3. Was the Chesmont course layout changed this year?

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    1. Very small tidbits, cutting a couple turns and adding a small section around a baseball field. Nothing major. Essentially the same exact course, wouldn't say there was any difference at all time wise

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  4. Hemp field ranked higher than they should be after being the top pa team at Paul Short.... where have I seen this before?

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    1. 2012 West Chester East. We all remember that debate.

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  5. Week 6 ranking:

    1. Carlisle – Secure a close win at Manhattan over DTW. 1-2 living up to the billing and #3 running well. 4 is solid. 5-7 maintaining close gap which will be the key.
    2. DW: Close lost to Carlisle (2 races). Liking the depth with this team and 1-3 solid all season with 4-7 keeping in close contact.
    3. CRN – Solid win last week and top 5 rounding into shape. This team is known to peak in post season so watchout. Depth after 5 is going to be an issue so top 5 must stay healthy.
    4 LaSalle: Top 3 starting to pickup and rest of team running as a pack as LAS teams have done in the past.
    5. LD: Their top 3 is solid and can compete with the team ranked above them. 4-5 having a solid season.
    6. COH – Top 3 continues to be solid, Runner 5 has tighten the gap which will be the key. #5 has the ability to run much better so watchout for this team.
    7. Hempfield: Nice race at Paul short. 2 solid runners and 3-5 not too far behind
    8. Mechanicville: 2 low stick, solid #3. 4-5 must continue to run strong since depth is an issue with this team
    9. CV: Liking the depth of this team. 1-2 must have good race for this team to compete for top 5.
    10: SV: I’m liking top 3. Beat NA which should give them confidence that they can compete well with the big boys.

    Bubble: NA (if 2 runners step up this team can challenge for top 5- It’s NA so this would not surprise me), Springford (liking the depth), CBW (this team may surprise)

    Quite honestly, I think that any of the top 6 teams above can win it all. This is going to be such a close race (kind of exciting for a change). One slip up or bad day for one runner can move a team from 1 to 6. That said, I’m leaning on teams with depth such as DW, LAS.

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  6. Is CRN the only team that knows how to peak in the post season? Feel like there are 5-6 teams that are in the top 10 every year, but CRN is the only team that has posters commenting that they know how to peak.- Joel Embiid

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    1. I try to based this on FACTS. Historically, they have done well in the post season so it is a fair assessment. Much like NA which continues to do well in states, even after they are depleted by graduation, I will continue to give them the benefit of the doubt. - not CRN hater

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    2. Please give me names of the 5-6 teams so I can give their due credit. I say these teams should show consistency over a 5-10 year span.

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    3. It's well known that CRN is the only team in PA that knows how to peak. Other top PA programs have been trying for years to figure out the CRN formula but with no success. And the CRN alumni aren't talking either, they hold that peaking skill very close to the vest as if each and every one of them has been sworn to secrecy. Any team that can figure out how CRN peaks and copy it would make some noise at states.

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    4. I'd say North Allegheny, CRN, Henderson, O'Hara and LaSalle have probably been among the most consistent top 10 in the state programs of the last 5-10 years. Cumberland Valley has had really nice consistency within the district, just doesn't have the top 5 finish in the state the others do. DTW is in the middle of a pretty nice 5 year run although next year will probably be their big test. Carlisle's been pretty consistent at the state qualifying level, but this year they have a chance to really make a big step.

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    5. I agree with you. These teams are the model programs in the state. DTW true test will be next year as you stated. That said, I will give these team the benefit of the doubt.

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    6. Honestly, wasn't hating on CRN since they do have a nice team this year and great program. I was really just commenting on how there were a lot of posts about how they know how to peak when there are a bunch of teams that are also pretty good at it. I think that's an accurate list for the last 10 years and would possibly throw in GFS and North Penn. It is true that running is a process and if you trust it then you will most likely peak at the right time so my only advice is to trust the process.-Joel Embiid

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  7. Elk County Catholic would beat any team regardless of class.

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  8. Has anyone else noticed the irony that Dwest may not win states because another team had two brothers transfer into the school?

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    1. Prediction:
      2nd at Chestmonts to Rustin
      2nd at Districts to CRN
      2nd at States to Carlisle

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  9. Week 7 ranking:

    1. Carlisle – A few of their runners have not had the best performance in the last couple of races, but this team continue to win. Super impressed with Kole this week and 5-7 continue to improve.
    2. DW: The experience of being the defending champs has had a much great impact that I expected. Plus this team is deep
    3. CRN –
    4. LaSalle:
    5. LD: Not their best performance as a team at mid-penn, but hung tough with Carlisle. If runner 5 can bounce back or close the gap, they can definitely be up their in title contention.
    6. COH –
    7. Hempfield:
    8. Mechanicville: as mentioned previously, 4-5 must continue to run strong since depth is an issue with this team. Unfortunately, #5 runner had an off day. If 5 can bounce back, this team can secure a top 5 spot.
    9. CV: Liking the depth of this team. Lacking the low stick to make this team move up.
    10: SV:

    Bubble: NA, Springford, CBW


    Quite honestly, I think that any of the top 6 teams above can win it all. This is going to be such a close race (kind of exciting for a change). One slip up or bad day for one runner can move a team from 1 to 6. That said, I’m leaning on teams with depth such as DW, LAS.

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  10. Greg Bielecki's LaSalle College High School guys went 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18 last Friday at Belmont Plateau (against Father Judge, Archbishop Ryan, Archbishop Wood), with 14 guys under 18:00 (and 19 guys under 18:30). Their 1-7 had a 38 second split. That's serious (ridiculous) depth.

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    1. that is some serious depth and the 1-18 sweep is impressive especially when considering the fire power that their competition had that day.

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