Early State Predictions

By Jarrett Felix

Yesterday I released my newest Top 50 list as well my updated top 10 team rankings. So if you're into that sort of thing, I urge you to check it out.

In other news I'm making the deadline to sign up for fantasy XC this coming Saturday. We currently have 4 people signed up which, although enough to have a league, is not as much as I was hoping based on the poll results. So if you want to do it comment, email, message on Twitter, text, call, send a letter (do kids these days know what that is?) , whatever your preferred method of communication is. Note: Emoji sign up will not work unfortunately.

But I digress. Let's get back to what this post is about: predicting the teams that will qualify for the state championships. I will preface this by saying I am basing each school's classification based purely on what it was last season. I'm also assuming each district will receive the same amount of qualifiers as it did a year ago. If this information is out of date, please comment so I can get things up to date for the next round of posts of this nature.

I've also provided a research-meter on a scale of 1-10 to let you know how familiar I am with all the teams in the district and their various abilities. The higher the number, the more confident I am in my research/predictions. For example D1 AAA would likely get a 9 and D5 A would likely get a 1.5. 

Also note that this is not a ranking so much as a prediction. There is a difference. While some teams have done more so far this season to prove themselves, others have histories that suggest they will show up when it counts. 

And ... Here ... We ... Go ....

District One (5/1/1)

AAA (9): DT West, CB West, Henderson, CRN, CB East

AA (7): Pottsgrove

A (1.8): Christopher Dock 

I droned on a lot about this district in basically every post I've ever made so I won't continue that sentiment here. I will say Pennsbury is a strong sleeper in AAA, perhaps the best shot of breaking up the party out front. AA is a blood bath right now on paper, but Pottsgrove has the experience and proven track record for performing at this meet. They've won every district title since the 3 class split. As for A, the 1.8 speaks for itself, but don't sleep on New Hope.

District Two (1/2/2)

AAA (6.8): Hazleton

AA (7.2): Dallas, Montrose

A (4.7): Elk Lake, Holy Cross

Dallas might be the best team in the state for AA and they have a strong record of coming together at the right time, especially last year. Montrose is something of an unknown, but they were 3rd last year in a bit of a surprise run so we could see them move up one spot. North Pocono is always dangerous with their front running.

Elk Lake is a powerhouse in this district and I see no reason that changes. Will be interesting to see if Matt Murray can pull along a decent pack behind him to make a run at the #2 spot. Meanwhile in AAA, a young Hazleton team really surprised me a year ago when they won districts. I'm not sleeping on them this time around, especially Franklin Cunningham who is off to a great start in 2015.

District Three (4/3/1)

AAA (8.5): Hempfield, Cumberland Valley, Hershey, Carlisle

AA (6): York Suburban, Wyomissing, Milton Hershey

A (6.5): Camp Hill

The AAA battle a year ago was a nightmare with so many teams packed together, but this year may be a bit easier. Cumby has looked vulnerable to say the least thus far this season and if even if Higgins had run and was 1st in their dual meet, Carlisle would have still had the edge. Really impressed with the youngsters on Carlisle's team and their strong rebound after graduating arguably their two best XC guys. Hershey and Hempfield are top 10 teams so far this year in my eyes so they are easy picks to survive the district (although it won't literally be easy for them to survive). I'm still keeping my fingers crossed Ephrata comes barging in and making noise. And where is Lower Dauphin?

York Suburban hasn't raced yet, but I think they will be quite good again this year. Only time will tell. Camp Hill is a potential podium contender in A, especially if Cooper Leslie is running with Beheny and not too tired from soccer duty. However, don't be surprised if Tulpehocken gives them a fun run at districts. That's a team on the rise.

District Four (0/1/2)

AA (6.5): Lewisburg

A (5): NE Bradford, Wyalusing

No idea who the second team is going to be out of A behind NEB (who seems very close to lock territory). Southern Columbia got some consideration for this spot and briefly Warrior Run (who was the 2nd team last year). In AA, with the graduations to Mt Caramel, I'd expect the door to be open for Lewisburg and their two strong runners out front in Bach and Alico to take the reigns on this district. Although Mifflinburg and Milton Area could both make some noise and put up a strong fight. Milton especially has real sleeper potential, but they are in a tough spot with just one qualifying spot for grabs.

District Five (0/0/1)

A (1.2): Southern Fulton

I actually went down in research/confidence since the start of this post. Southern Fulton is the defending champs and returns some key runners, but Meyersdale could potentially work their way in there. I think those may be two of the only three teams with at least 5 guys last year though? So yeah, it's a 1.2.

The real story here will always be wondering if me and Dave Felix from Johnstown are related. I'm serious, I have family from Johnstown but nothing on Facebook links us. Rock on relative.

District Six (1/1/2)

AAA (8.5): State College

AA (6): Central Cambria

A (5): St Joe's, Penns Valley

I'm pretty confident SC has got the district title here. They look really good and they haven't folded at all in the big spot the previous two years. However, Altoona could definitely still qualify for states if they get their 5 in ahead of the rest of the non State College district. They looked poised to do it at Big Valley, but they will need to click at the right time and have 0 off days. 

AA is intriguing because D5 hops in with D6 throwing in a very good Somerset team and a front loaded Bedford squad to mix up the equation. Somerset is the defending champs, but I leaned toward CC in the rankings because they have a bit more big meet experience on their schedule. Of course who knows how much that will really help when push comes to shove. A could be a fun race as well, but I think St Joe's pulls out using the hunger from 3rd place a year ago.

District Seven (3/4/3):

AAA (8.5): North Allegheny, Mount Lebo, Seneca Valley

AA (5.5): Knoch, Beaver, South Fayette, Quaker Valley

A (6): Winchester Thurston, Sewickley Academy, Our Lady of Sacred Heart

NA wins the district basically every year and no reason to doubt that goes down again. Lebo usually makes it scary close at WPIALs, but gets through. Seneca Valley would likely have been my preseason pick and besides some solid running from Norwin I haven't seen much to change my mind. Pitts Central Catholic would be interesting to consider if I had see any results on them.

I won't lie, I'm not ready to pick AA just yet. Is South Fayette AA still? Do they have the pack to back up their impressive front running? Quaker Valley has the best guy in the field and the history, but they missed last year so what's to stop that from happening again? What does Knoch have for this season? Is Uniontown just going to reload out of seemingly no where once again and make it to states? My sleeper pick is Greensburg Salem? Wait sorry that was supposed to be a statement, I got carried away.

Winchester Thurston and Sewickley are looking beastly yet again. Not sure if there is a clear #3 but I like Sacred Heart for now over Northgate and a slew of other teams loaded with returners from a year ago.

District Eight (1/0/0)

AAA (4): Allerdice

While I haven't researched the district much, I'm quite confident in my pick. Allerdice has a pretty solid team this year and they tend to be the class of the district. I'm not sure what Carrick has available this year, but they can sneak into states again if they take the five individual spots in this small district.

District Nine (0/1/2)

AA (4): Bradford

A (4.5): Cranberry, Elk CC

Punxsutawney has been the class of the field in recent years, but they graduate a lot of talent this year. That opens the door for Bradford to step through behind Caruso. Let's see if they can deliver.

Cranberry looks like a solid team once again and Elk CC has historically been strong in the district. Plus they have some young studs on the roster again this year. This was one of the closest battles a year ago for a district title and I look forward to watching it unfold again. Of course North Clarion and maybe Coudersport can step in and break up the fun. They both have a killer front runner to build behind.

District Ten (1/2/2)

AAA (5): Cathedral Prep

AA (6.5): Grove City, Harbor Creek

A (5.5): Mercyhurst Prep, Seneca

The single A race could be epic as once again Saegertown has a fantastic team, but once again Mercyhurst and Seneca could steal the state spots out from under them. Saegertown needs to solidify the back half of their top 5, but Mercyhurst and Seneca are far from invincible. Winner of this district has an excellent shot at top 5 at states, perhaps even more.

Grove City is the class of AA. They should advance with little trouble. Harbor Creek has some impressive young pieces, including a couple talented freshman, but I'd like to see a healthy Babo racing for them before I discount Corry as a contender for a state qualifying spot. 

McDowell vs Cathedral Prep could be an epic battle. It's possible both teams get to advance to states, but tricky to rely on something like that. Cathedral Prep's pack impressed me at RWB so I gave them the nod for now, but McDowell is the defending champ and won't go quietly.

District Eleven (2/2/1)

AAA (7): Parkland, Easton

AA (3.5): Allentown CC, Notre Dame GP

A (3): Notre Dame ES

I'm feeling good about the Parkland and Easton picks. Parkland looks very strong so far this year and has an excellent history of being in the top two during this weekend. Easton is the defending champion and likely holds the best runner in the district. Plus I don't see a real challenger who has emerged just yet. But it won't stay that way for long I'm sure.

The rest of the group is honestly based mainly of returners and a little district history. These squads have a nice crews coming back and a nice bit of experience from their winning efforts in 2014. Moravian Academy seems like the most likely party crasher and unfortunately Jim Thorpe seems like the most likely team to bow out from last year's qualifiers after some key graduations. Although Bucior may still leave the meet with a gold medal.

District Twelve (2/2/2)

AAA (3): LaSalle, O'Hara

AA (5.5): Bonner, Carroll

A (4): Masterman, Paul Robeson

It's kinda sad, the best two teams in the district have been off the radar these first two weeks. Reputation alone makes LaSalle and o'Hara safe bets, however, and both teams also happen to return a lot of talent in 2015. Hard to imagine a scenario where it is not these two.

Bonner is fresh off a great track season in 2014 and has proven itself in the AA division in recent years. I will say that Archbishop Carroll can pack a nice punch in 2015, they may end up district champs. I need to see more recent results from them to get a better picture. Regardless these two seem like the clear favorites.

Masterman has had little trouble with the district in the past and return a nice crop of talent, led by Previdi. Paul Robeson is a reasonable bet for 2nd, but I'm not completely sold on anyone just yet for this spot. 

Briarwood should help clear a few things up this weekend in this district.