Accepted Entries: 20, Bold is accepted, Italicized is scratched
1 Sam Ritz 4:10.50' Germantown Academy
2 Kevin James 4:20.46* O'Hara
3 Jake Brophy 4:21.10* CB East
4 Casey Comber 4:21.50* Horsham
5 Billy McDevitt 4:23.08' Malvern Prep
6 John Daly 4:23.14* St. Joe's Prep
7 Mike Kolor 4:23.54' Seneca Valley
8 Patrick Grant 4:24.04' LaSalle
9 Kyle Shinn 4:25.39' Wyomissing
10 Paul Power 4:25.47** Spring Ford
11 Brad Foust 4:25.48' Altoona
12 Sam Webb 4:25.74* Pennsbury
13 PJ Murray 4:26.04' Conestoga
14 Andrew Marston 4:26.15' Conestoga
15 Grayson Hepp 4:26.74' GFS
16 Eric Diestelow 4:26.92' West Chester East
17 Liam Galligan 4:27.29* Springfield DELCO
18 Nick Dahl 4:27.44' GFS
19 Julian D-Lutzner 4:27.46* Masterman
20 Colin Wills 4:27.80* Malvern Prep
21 Alex Milligan 4:27.85' State College
22 Elias Graca 4:28.20' Fox Chapel
23 Sean Weidner 4:28.52* Lower Dauphin
24 Scott Seel 4:28.62' North Allegheny
25 Henry Sappey 4:28.64' DT West
26 Josh Hoey 4:29.10' DT West
27 Ryan Tung 4:30.59* North Penn
28 Matt Wisner 4:30.82* Carlisle
29 Jon Perlman 4:30.84* Lower Merion
30 Alek Sauer 4:31.43* Pennsbury
31 Andrew Koryak 4:31.68' Vincentian Academy
32 Rob Morro 4:31.70* O'Hara
33 Khai Samuels 4:31.77' Pleasant Valley
34 Andrew Hanna 4:32.25* CR South
35 Brian Arita 4:32.35* Council Rock North
36 Sebastian Curtin 4:32.41' Mercyhurst Prep
37 Nick Wolk 4:32.42' Peter's Township
38 Noah Smith 4:32.51' Ringgold
39 Rock Fortna 4:32.63* Central Bucks West
40 Aaron Gebhart 4:32.84' New Oxford
41 Dylan Eddinger 4:32.84* Boyertown
42 Alex Kim 4:33.04' The Haverford School
43 Jeff VanKooten 4:33.17' Pittsburgh Central Catholic
44 Joe Maguire 4:33.17* CR South
The first thing I think when I check out this list is, maybe I was generous with the scratches. I'm really banking on a ton of completely fresh DMR squads coming together which led to the scratching of both DT West, Conestoga and GFS guys. That's 6 extra spots already that are far form secure. The back end guys are far from safe.
Also I scratched out both the O'Hara men who had very nice races at PCLs. Kev James ran great for the win over John Daly and now is at #2 over Brophy. I get the feeling that KJ goes 3k and so he scratches here, but that's far from guarenteed. Heck, even a Mile-3k double is in play for James, not even considering the chance he passes on the 3k to save for the relay. Morro has looked strong this year and showed nice speed this weekend. However, if O'Hara passes on the DM, what's to stop Morro from hopping in this mile?
As mentioned in my DMR piece, I scratched the DT West boys out of this race because I find it interesting they haven't tried to improve their mle seed times since Yale (and won't be improving them because they aren't qualified for MoCs). Their times are fast (and most likely safe) but far form comfortable positioning (and likely won't be in the fast heat).
As of right now Diestelow is the divider between the hot heat and the slow heat (not guarenteed to be the cut off) so it will be interesting to see if the guys around that spot try to run hard this weekend and jump a few spots to get a slot in the Ritz heat where the pace is expected to be quick (but maybe too quick? depends on your perspective). Diestelow has a DMR that is in the mix, so we will see if he tries for another fast mile after his win at the Carnival or is satisfied with his positioning.
James, Brophy, Comber and Power are all intriguing cases here because of their 3k potential. All four guys are studs at the 3k (I think it's their best event) but other complicating factors could make them choose the mile. As of now I have Brophy in here at the mile, but that could change in a week. I think he is going to be as fresh as possible for whatever relay East chooses and he may actually have a better chance of placing higher in the mile than the 3k (I personally don't feel that way, but there is an argument that could be made). I mentioned James above, but keep in mind that my 2015 predictions had James winning the indoor mile title so I wouldn't mind seeing him in here ....
I think Comber and Power, with no relay duties looming, should both go fresh for the 3k. That being said the 3k-mile double is not out of the question. I think Comber can win the state title in the 3k, especially if Brophy and/or James bow out, but he can't give Hockenbury any edge. Hock is really good and if his competition is tired, it could be a dominating win.
This past week or so, there were a ton of strong times worth mentioning. Liam Galligan and Colin Wills did an excellent job improving their seed marks at Last Chance and both are certainly state medal contenders. It was nice to see Sean Weidner snag a sub 4:30 mark that could make him an intriguing medal contender looking ahead with additional seasoning. His former teammate Groh was a medalist last year.
Two guys that could really complicate the picture are Sam Webb and John Daly. Webb has not run a 3k this year and has proven his speed is there (1:55 split at Millrose, killer close on his 4:25). Webb is going to be driven to get points for Pennsbury in the open event for the team title chase and he can run a slow or fast race based on his excellent combination of strength and speed. He's a scary name that should get a bit more play before everything is said and done. Daly had a big run at PCLs (4:23) which backs up his 4:17 split from their DMR. He's a medal contender (although there is a very outside chance he scratches out for a fresh anchor leg on the state's #1 DMR).
This last week there will be a lot of different meets hosting fast miles. The TSTCA championships should produce a ton of fast races from the borderline guys (there are 4 or so right at 4:32-4:33 and some will likely pop off the high 4:20s time it takes to get in). Then there are the Meet of Champs boys like Perlman, Tung (if he's healthy? Haven't seen his name in a while) and more who are in the mid to low 4:30s and need to drop time to stay competitive. Then at the State College Invite, I'd imagine runners like Alex Milligan will be looking to drop their seed time (and we also may see Brian Hackman fresh off his 1:57 at SPIRE). If Milligan can't dip into the 4:25ish range, he may scratch out of the mile to give SC a fresh 4x8.
My gut says 4:29ish will be the last time in, but I do honestly feel like a lot of big names will scratch out, opening the door for slower times to sneak in. But these guys can't leave much to chance, they have to secure their positioning over the final week.
2 Kevin James 4:20.46* O'Hara
3 Jake Brophy 4:21.10* CB East
4 Casey Comber 4:21.50* Horsham
5 Billy McDevitt 4:23.08' Malvern Prep
6 John Daly 4:23.14* St. Joe's Prep
7 Mike Kolor 4:23.54' Seneca Valley
8 Patrick Grant 4:24.04' LaSalle
9 Kyle Shinn 4:25.39' Wyomissing
10 Paul Power 4:25.47** Spring Ford
11 Brad Foust 4:25.48' Altoona
12 Sam Webb 4:25.74* Pennsbury
13 PJ Murray 4:26.04' Conestoga
14 Andrew Marston 4:26.15' Conestoga
15 Grayson Hepp 4:26.74' GFS
16 Eric Diestelow 4:26.92' West Chester East
17 Liam Galligan 4:27.29* Springfield DELCO
18 Nick Dahl 4:27.44' GFS
19 Julian D-Lutzner 4:27.46* Masterman
20 Colin Wills 4:27.80* Malvern Prep
21 Alex Milligan 4:27.85' State College
22 Elias Graca 4:28.20' Fox Chapel
23 Sean Weidner 4:28.52* Lower Dauphin
24 Scott Seel 4:28.62' North Allegheny
25 Henry Sappey 4:28.64' DT West
26 Josh Hoey 4:29.10' DT West
27 Ryan Tung 4:30.59* North Penn
28 Matt Wisner 4:30.82* Carlisle
29 Jon Perlman 4:30.84* Lower Merion
30 Alek Sauer 4:31.43* Pennsbury
31 Andrew Koryak 4:31.68' Vincentian Academy
32 Rob Morro 4:31.70* O'Hara
33 Khai Samuels 4:31.77' Pleasant Valley
34 Andrew Hanna 4:32.25* CR South
35 Brian Arita 4:32.35* Council Rock North
36 Sebastian Curtin 4:32.41' Mercyhurst Prep
37 Nick Wolk 4:32.42' Peter's Township
38 Noah Smith 4:32.51' Ringgold
39 Rock Fortna 4:32.63* Central Bucks West
40 Aaron Gebhart 4:32.84' New Oxford
41 Dylan Eddinger 4:32.84* Boyertown
42 Alex Kim 4:33.04' The Haverford School
43 Jeff VanKooten 4:33.17' Pittsburgh Central Catholic
44 Joe Maguire 4:33.17* CR South
The first thing I think when I check out this list is, maybe I was generous with the scratches. I'm really banking on a ton of completely fresh DMR squads coming together which led to the scratching of both DT West, Conestoga and GFS guys. That's 6 extra spots already that are far form secure. The back end guys are far from safe.
Also I scratched out both the O'Hara men who had very nice races at PCLs. Kev James ran great for the win over John Daly and now is at #2 over Brophy. I get the feeling that KJ goes 3k and so he scratches here, but that's far from guarenteed. Heck, even a Mile-3k double is in play for James, not even considering the chance he passes on the 3k to save for the relay. Morro has looked strong this year and showed nice speed this weekend. However, if O'Hara passes on the DM, what's to stop Morro from hopping in this mile?
As mentioned in my DMR piece, I scratched the DT West boys out of this race because I find it interesting they haven't tried to improve their mle seed times since Yale (and won't be improving them because they aren't qualified for MoCs). Their times are fast (and most likely safe) but far form comfortable positioning (and likely won't be in the fast heat).
As of right now Diestelow is the divider between the hot heat and the slow heat (not guarenteed to be the cut off) so it will be interesting to see if the guys around that spot try to run hard this weekend and jump a few spots to get a slot in the Ritz heat where the pace is expected to be quick (but maybe too quick? depends on your perspective). Diestelow has a DMR that is in the mix, so we will see if he tries for another fast mile after his win at the Carnival or is satisfied with his positioning.
James, Brophy, Comber and Power are all intriguing cases here because of their 3k potential. All four guys are studs at the 3k (I think it's their best event) but other complicating factors could make them choose the mile. As of now I have Brophy in here at the mile, but that could change in a week. I think he is going to be as fresh as possible for whatever relay East chooses and he may actually have a better chance of placing higher in the mile than the 3k (I personally don't feel that way, but there is an argument that could be made). I mentioned James above, but keep in mind that my 2015 predictions had James winning the indoor mile title so I wouldn't mind seeing him in here ....
I think Comber and Power, with no relay duties looming, should both go fresh for the 3k. That being said the 3k-mile double is not out of the question. I think Comber can win the state title in the 3k, especially if Brophy and/or James bow out, but he can't give Hockenbury any edge. Hock is really good and if his competition is tired, it could be a dominating win.
This past week or so, there were a ton of strong times worth mentioning. Liam Galligan and Colin Wills did an excellent job improving their seed marks at Last Chance and both are certainly state medal contenders. It was nice to see Sean Weidner snag a sub 4:30 mark that could make him an intriguing medal contender looking ahead with additional seasoning. His former teammate Groh was a medalist last year.
Two guys that could really complicate the picture are Sam Webb and John Daly. Webb has not run a 3k this year and has proven his speed is there (1:55 split at Millrose, killer close on his 4:25). Webb is going to be driven to get points for Pennsbury in the open event for the team title chase and he can run a slow or fast race based on his excellent combination of strength and speed. He's a scary name that should get a bit more play before everything is said and done. Daly had a big run at PCLs (4:23) which backs up his 4:17 split from their DMR. He's a medal contender (although there is a very outside chance he scratches out for a fresh anchor leg on the state's #1 DMR).
This last week there will be a lot of different meets hosting fast miles. The TSTCA championships should produce a ton of fast races from the borderline guys (there are 4 or so right at 4:32-4:33 and some will likely pop off the high 4:20s time it takes to get in). Then there are the Meet of Champs boys like Perlman, Tung (if he's healthy? Haven't seen his name in a while) and more who are in the mid to low 4:30s and need to drop time to stay competitive. Then at the State College Invite, I'd imagine runners like Alex Milligan will be looking to drop their seed time (and we also may see Brian Hackman fresh off his 1:57 at SPIRE). If Milligan can't dip into the 4:25ish range, he may scratch out of the mile to give SC a fresh 4x8.
My gut says 4:29ish will be the last time in, but I do honestly feel like a lot of big names will scratch out, opening the door for slower times to sneak in. But these guys can't leave much to chance, they have to secure their positioning over the final week.
A couple names to add to the list (both of whom I would predict would opt to run the mile if they qualify) according to the Kutztown results:
ReplyDelete1. Adam Rabon, Hershey 4:32.01c
2. Coby Mattes, 4:32.10c
Both of those guys are bubble types as of right now to get into the state meet
another update, looks like the varsity classic was a 1600 not a mile, so add 1.6 seconds to the seeds for Grant,Hepp, Dahl and Kim
ReplyDeleteThoughts on Comber running the Mile? He could double. He just ran an amazing Mile race. And Brophy might choose the 3k to get a state championship. He's so strong that I bet he could come back in ~4:26 in the DMR mile leg. Or they could put him as the 1200 leg.
ReplyDeleteI'd be surprised for sure. Brophy and CB East I've got no clue which relay and which event, but I think Comber knows the 3k is his best event and will load up for it. But clearly he could excel at the mile and mix it up in the medals.
ReplyDelete