Anyway you spin it, I get the feel there is going to be a big drop in 3k times these final two weeks. As of right now, I have 9:04ish slotted to get in after scratches, but odds are that sub 9 at a minimum will be necessary to feel at all confident that your spot is secure.
At the Carnival this weekend a slew of runners will come together hoping to break that barrier and move one step closer to state qualifying.
One of those runners is Aaron Gebhart of New Oxford. After another impressive XC season that included a District Championship, the 9:16 3200m man decided to take his first serious run at a winter track season. So far, I'd say it's been a success. He ran an impressive 3k at F&M and another strong one at State College, both close to but not quite under 9 minutes. Now he lands what will likely be his toughest competition of the year, just in time for a back against the wall chase for the state standard.
That competition includes PA #1 and reigning AA state champ Dom Hockenbury who let everyone know he was for real this season with his performance at the Yale Invite. Hock has picked his spots to say the least and has felt this meet would be an important final test before the state championship.
Hockenbury will do battle with Colin Abert, Burdette 3k champ, Paul Power, Burdette mile champ and Nick Dahl, 8:44 3k this year, each of whom have a special connection to Hock. With the exception of the Footlocker regional meet, Hockenbury has lost to 0 PA runners besides Abert dating back to possibly last spring (I'd have to double check, but I think it's been a while). Meanwhile, Paul Power and Nick Dahl have both stolen some spot light from Hockenbury in recent meets. Power grabbed the foundation meet record last fall erasing memories of a dominate performance by Hock in the blue race. Dahl ran 8:44 at the same Yale meet as Dom ran 8:39. Dahl stole a variety of headlines thanks to his sophomore status.
I can't help but get the vibe Hockenbury is one of the most underrated runners in the state. He was fantastic this cross country season and started out indoors with the fastest time in the state, but he rarely gets press. This could be a huge win for him against a stacked field.
Another man who can steal the show is Andrew Marston of Conestoga. He and his teammate have quickly rebounded from a last place finish in the DMR at Yale to now rolling up next to St Joe's Prep for tops in the state. Conestoga has proving it's a well coached program after a terrific XC season and I think Marston (in possibly his last 3k of the year) is ready to pop something off now that he is back in his comfort zone at the longer distance.
Seth Slavin, Connor McMenamin and Jack Tidball have each run under 9:10 this year (in Slavin's case by 2 mile conversion) and each now hope to get the extra 8 seconds or so it will take to be on the starting line in Happy Valley. Slavin has been strong all year at this distance, including excellent runs at the armory. He and McMenamin are just Sophs so they have been learning and growing over the past few months, building to this moment. However, Tidball may be the most likely runner to break out. The AA state medalist has had few races this year (maybe even just one?) and has yet to see anything close to this level of competition. That could mean he's ready to pop off something impressive. He ran 9:26ish a year ago outdoors in the 3200m.
Some other sleepers worth keeping an eye on are guys like Nate Bartos, Jack Carmody and Matt Beyerle. All have shown impressive strength in cross and on the track. In a quality race like this, they can get pulled to a fast time if they keep their nose in it.
Picking a winner for this race is like picking your favorite Spice Girl: Everybody is amazingly talented to the point it's Scary. Pun intended. Good luck to anybody trying to pick a winner in this one.
So here's what I think, what I really, really think.
1. Paul Power 8:49.79
2. Dom Hockenbury 8:50.62
3. Nick Dahl 8:50.78
4. Andrew Marston 8:51.00
5. Aaron Gebhart 8:54.33
Probably didn't see that one coming from this preview. Power has been really good this year, winning a quality mile at Burdette and running a solo 3k way, way back. He's got an extra dose of speed this year to go with his 15:50 at Hershey strength. He's been off the radar and must be chomping at the bit to get back into a quality invite.
Keep in mind I completely whiffed on Abert at Burdette last time out in predictions, so if you are looking for someone to win this thing it may be him. He too has been on and off the radar since his big win last December.
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