The XC Top 50 #10-1

by Jarrett Felix

A reminder of 50-11 ...
50. Dan Quigley
49. Dan Filler
48. Jack Carmody
47. Liam Galligan
46. Seth Slavin
45. PJ Murray
44. Nick Feffer
43. Grayson Hepp
42. Gabriel Allgayer
41. Zach Skolnekovich
40. Cooper Leslie
39. Patrick Grant
38. Eric Kennedy
37. Colin Wills
36. Andrew Hanna
35. Nick Wolk
34. Josh Higgins
33. Kyler Shea
32. Joe Maguire
31. Tucker Desko
30. Cody DiVecchio
29. Matt Wisner
28. Brian Delaney
27. Bryce Descavisch
26. Todd Gunzenhauser
25. Jake Susalla
24. Ryan Barton
23. Matt Kravitz
22. Connor McMenamin
21. Kevin Lapsansky
20. Rock Fortna
19. Will Loevner
18. Jacob Stupak
17. Jack DiCintio
16. Will Kachman
15. Rob Morro
14. Ryan James
13. Spencer Smucker
12. Alex Milligan
11. Henry Sappey

10. Griffin Mackey, Junior Sewickley Academy (7 A)

Griffin Mackey ran the fastest time of any sophomore at last year’s PIAA State Championship and he did it in a less crowded field and slower opening pace than that of AAA. His third place finish in the A State Championship makes him the top returner in the field ahead of district rivals Will Loevner and Domenic Peretta. He also led his Sewickley Academy team to an impressive second place finish at states and a gold medal performance at districts.

On the track, Mackey continued to excel, running 9:20 for 3200m and 4:22 for a full mile on the track (in I think the same meet), mixing it up with the best in the WPIAL. He also dominated the Shippensburg Invitational at 3200m and, in total, ran under the 9:30 mark on four different occasions as just a sophomore.

With another year of experience and maturity, Mackey should continue to improve. During XC last year, Mackey started the year off on a roll before running into Peretta for two weekends prior to states. He lost both races and it seemed like Domenic had his number, yet Mackey found another gear on the hillier Hershey course, built more for cross runners than track guys. The goal will be to capture the same type of magic on the hills in 2015 and continue the streak of state champions named “Griffin”.

9. Josh Hoey, Sophomore Downingtown West (1 AAA)

If you haven’t read my #20-11 rankings, then you haven’t heard my rant on the improvement rates for freshman and sophomores. I’ll spare you the details now (but feel free to read one post below), but just know that Freshman with resumes like Josh Hoey and Spencer Smucker don’t come along very often. And when they do, their careers are usually pretty special.

Middle Hoey will run this fall at Downingtown West after competing for Malvern Prep a year ago. We never got to see a Smucker vs. Hoey match up to compare the two (away from the track), but we do know that both were very impressive in their respective post seasons. Josh finished second behind indoor state record holder and state champion Sam Ritz at the Independent League XC championships, beating Billy McDevitt and Nick Dahl among others. He was 5^th at Abington alongside Sappey and was 6^th at Briarwood ahead of Ryan James, Rock Fortna and others.

After Josh made the switch over to DT West, he continued to shine, most notably running a reported sub 4:20 anchor leg on the team’s DMR. He made the state finals in the 1600m and grabbed a medal there then followed that mark with a 4:17 full mile at the Henderson Meet of Champions. His spring ended with a victory at the Freshman mile at Outdoor Nationals.

That’s a strong resume for any runner, but as a freshman it’s historic. Josh should have strong training partners at DT West to help bring out the best of him on the season. He’s still young and is a rookie to the PIAA for XC (which means a rookie to Hershey) so he will have a lot to learn, but if he can run with the same poise he showed a year ago he should perform beyond his years this season.

8. Zach Seiger, Senior Red Land (3 AAA)

When you look back at the 2014 Cross Country season, you could argue that Aaron Gebhart (the District Champion) or Zach Brehm (the top finisher at states) was the best runner from District 3, but you also could make a compelling case for Zach Seiger. Seiger was consistent all season and finished in the Top 3 of every race he ran prior to the state championships (where was 14^th). He grabbed 3^rd at PTXC behind only Abert and Hockenbury, 3^rd at Carlisle, 2^nd at Gettysburg, 1^st at Mid Penns and then another 2^nd at the District 3 Championship.

Next year, with the course changes in place, Seiger should be one of the runners that benefits most from the change. I would bet that District 3, which during track is equal to if not better than District 7, makes a big leap in 2015 to challenge their rivals to the West.

Seiger has not proved he has killer speed on the track (9:28 3200m, 4:35 best for 1600m as a sophomore) and he will probably suffer a little bit from a training perspective now that his teammate and fellow state medalist Drew Wilkinson has graduated. But his strength is undeniable on the trails. He should make a serious run at the District 3 Individual Championship this year, especially since the Big Spring Course has shown him some love with his past victory at Mid Penns.

7. Mike Kolor, Senior Seneca Valley (7 AAA)

A year ago, Kolor was 5^th at the District 7 Championships in Cross Country and 23^rd at the State Championships in Cross Country. Those are both solid achievements, but when you consider the healthproblems he was dealing with for most of last year, it makes his performance remarkable. Once Kolor rounded back to form, we saw just how good he could be. Mike clocked multiple 1:54-1:55 times at 800m and added three performances around 4:13 or faster for 1600m, most notably a 4:12 full mile at the Henderson Invitational.

Speed does not always end up directly translating to the grass, but Kolor already has acquired some solid hardware during the X games and many close to him think he has more upside in cross than track. I don’t have an official stat, but I would bet there are not a lot of 4:10 guys who can’t rock a 5k. He will likely be the favorite this fall for a WPIAL title and possibly in contention for a top 3 spot at states.

6. Domenic Peretta, Senior Beaver Falls (7 A)

As a Junior in 2011, Drew Magaha became a dominate miler, running an absurdly quick 4:07 at the state championships to grab the meet record. He had decent success in cross (a couple league championships, a few top 20 finishes at districts), but had never finished in the top 50 at the state meet. Also as a Junior in 2011, Great Valley Junior Ned Willig dropped his PRs to 4:11 and 1:51. He had broken 16 minutes for 5k as a freshman and was a multiple state qualifier, however he had been a non-factor on the state scene and also had zero top fifty finishes at states. As seniors, the duo took 1-2 at the District One Championship and each ran massive PRs at Lehigh. At states the pair ran dramatic lifetime bests on the Hills of Hershey and both finished in the top 10 at states (Magaha was 6^th and Willig was 9^th).

This past year Peretta entered the Magaha-Willig zone for a Junior. He has now run the equivalent of 4:10 for 1600m and 1:51 for 800m (in addition to four track state championships) putting him roughly comparable to the rivals from a decade earlier. In his first two years of cross Peretta has been solid (top 20 at states as a sophomore, 7^th at states this past year), but considering his extraordinary times on the track some likely expected him to dominate the A competition.

Sometimes it takes a couple years to figure things out. It was reported that Magaha never really liked Cross Country and did not take it seriously until he was a Senior. Knowing Ned and the Great Valley program, I’d imagine he was fully invested in Fall racing, he just needed some time for things to click. Ultimately, regardless of the reasons why, talent tends to win out. And Peretta is absurdly talented.

This is not meant to discredit Peretta’s accomplishments to date. Last year, despite getting a late start on racing, Peretta dominated his first two races of the season, winning the District 7 title fairly convincingly over the guys that ended up #3, #4 and #8 at states. I think he was just starting to scratch the surface last year and this year he will crank it up to another level.

However, keep in mind XC is not track and we are constantly reminded of the differences from a mental and physical stand point. It will be very interesting to see how Peretta attacks his last XC season and if he can win his first state gold away from the oval.

5. Nathan Henderson, Junior JP McCaskey (3 AAA)

Here are the last four sophomores to finish tops in their class at states: Conner Quinn, Brent Kennedy, Colin Abert and Jake Brophy. The next year each of those runners finished in the top two at the state championships with Brophy and Quinn winning the state title. And this past track season, Henderson ran the fastest 3200m time out of the bunch as sophomores. Henderson’s 9:08 was good for the dreaded 9thplace spot, but that should only provide a little extra motivation as we transition back to XC.

Last year, Henderson finished 1^st at the Lebanon Lancaster League Championships and also added an 11^th place finish at Carlisle before taking 5^th at Districts and 13^th at States. On the track he showcased some solid range of his own with a 4:20 1600m to go with his 9:08 for 32. Perhaps most importantly, Henderson has showcased some fantastic hair over the past few seasons. There’s not much to dislike about this rising star.

4. Nick Dahl, Junior Germantown Friend’s School (Independent)

GFS’s Nick Dahl entered extremely rare company this past track season when he entered the sub 9 minute club at New Balance Outdoor Nationals. Dahl’s 9:01 full two mile converts to about 8:58 for 3200m and makes him the only sophomore in state history to dip under 9 minutes. By conversion, he also eclipsed Max Kaulbach’s school record in the distance. For those who don’t know, Kaulbach was a state champion in the mile, national champion in the two mile, and was second at the Nike Northeast Regional meet in 2007. So a sophomore running times that Kaulbach did as a Senior is still a little mindblowing.

Dahl, who has a freshman ran 9:19 for a full two miles, had a strong sophomore XC season, although not quite on the level of the other sub 9 two milers. He was a strong 10^th at Paul Short and 4^th at Independent League States. It’s hard to say exactly how Dahl stacked up last year given the fact that he is in the independent league and, as showcased during the past two springs, his goal is to peak around nationals time which is not consistent with the PIAA schedule. States is roughly a month before nationals and Dahl and his independent league companions won’t even race the same course as the boys from PIAA for their state championship meet.

This is the part where someone might suggest a meet of champs. You have to give me credit, we got through about 46.5 names and I didn’t say anything.

But anyway, at Paul Short, a one meet sample but our best chance to compare to the other top names, he finished 10^th sandwiched between guys like Aiden Demko, Matt Karvitz, Billy McDevitt, Simon Smith, Will Sponaugle and Kevin Lapsansky. If he had run like that at states, he would likely would have been somewhere around 20^th at the AAA state championships (i.e. behind other top sophs like Henderson and James). Again, it’s a small sample size, but I think it shows Dahl will have something to prove on the XC trails this year if he wants to match his extremely impressive track credentials. The good news: he is entering his Junior year and maturing into a more experienced, stronger runner who should be able to attack this fall extremely well.

3. Dominic Hockenbury, Senior Lake Lehman (2 AA)

Hockenbury is absolute stud, however I have him penciled in as a preseason third. You can look at this two ways. 1) Hockenbury is an absolute stud. He has already grabbed three state golds and two state silvers over the past two years while competing at just five state championships. Therefore, I never had a doubt he would be among the state’s elite. Or 2) Hockenbury has accomplished all that, and you didn’t even think about slotting him in the top 2? Unfortunately, much of this decision is due to factors outside of Hock’s control.

Dominic has consistently done the best with the competition that has been put in front of him. Yes, he is in AA, but I’m sure he would rather be getting the opportunity to race all the top runners regardless of class, even if it meant he would have a few less golds. As far as I can tell, Hockenbury has not lost to AA competition since the fall of his sophomore year when Dominic Deluca was around.

Hock has amassed some impressive wins when given the opportunity. It took an absolute monster kick from McGoey (an 8:56 guy) to beat him at indoor states. Also in that race, he bested Footlocker Finalist and future 9 flat man Casey Comber. Hock beat out Dahl and Marston among others at Yale, beat Power at the Henderson Invitational and beat Abert at Footlocker NE Regionals, meaning at some point or another he bested half of the best field in state 3200m history. Is it crazy to think that if he had gotten a chance to run in the AAA race, Hock could have broken the 9 minute barrier as well? I don’t think it’s out of the question.

Hockenbury’s track PRs are pretty solid, 4:20 and 9:06 (with a 15:08 indoors while sick), but also indicate he is clearly better the longer he goes. That’s a good sign for a guy transitioning back to XC. The other good news, Hockenbury’s gloves will surely be back as the weather gets colder this fall and we all know those things are powerful. The bottom line: Hockenbury is the biggest favorite for state gold out of all three divisions and considering his past successes at Van Cortlandt, I think he is one of the early favorites to go to Foot Locker this year. But can he be PA’s top overall runner? Only time will tell.

2. Jake Brophy, Senior Central Bucks East (1 AAA)

1. Jaxson Hoey, Senior Downingtown West (1 AAA)
So here we are, the decision that kept me up at night for a solid month. I seriously contemplated having these two tie for the top spot, but then realized that was really lame and backed out. But I was almost willing to accept lameness in exchange for not having to make this choice.

Let’s go through this a little bit so I can explain a bit of my reasoning.

The last two falls, Jaxson ran for Malvern Prep in the Independent League and suffered an injury that ended his season prior to independent states and Nike Northeast Regionals. Before the injury, Hoey was off to a fast start. He won the Abington Invitational and then won at Briarwood against Jake Brophy (2^nd) and Kevin James (3^rd), the eventual 1-2 finishers at states. The times from the entire top group, but most notably Brophy and Hoey, placed them among some historically great names, most notably the Rosa twins from New Jersey. Jaxson went on to finish 6^th at Carlisle (leading before his falls) and 5^th at Paul Short before his season ended.

Meanwhile Brophy took over when the championship season hit. He and Comber dueled to an amazing 15:08-15:12 finish at Suburbans in what was basically a 1 on 1 race. Then he bested a loaded field at Districts before obliterating the final 800m at states to run 15:24 and break Tony Russell’s state record. That 15:24 broke the record by 21 seconds and was 14 seconds faster than Kevin James ran for 2^nd (the new #2 AT mark on the course). After a long season that started in August, Brophy ended his year by qualifying for Foot Locker Nationals (which was run in December).

Jaxson’s injury kept him MIA for the entire indoor season, while Brophy, who rounded into shape well enough to clock a 4:17 mile, was still getting back into training after his marathon fall. At Penn Relays, an event I was fortunate enough to be at, both runners really started to show their potential. Jaxson ran a massive 4x8 leg that almost dragged his new DT West teammates to the COA and Brophy, after running his own impressive leg, laid down a huge kick in the 3k to clock an 8:29 PR.

That proved to be foreshadowing as Brophy closed quickly again at Henderson, running an 8:57 3200m, a state junior class record and the first sub 9 of the year. He ran under 60 seconds for the final lap. But as the season continued, Jaxson continued to get stronger and, ultimately, at the state championships it was Hoey who left with his first state title: a 4:11 victory in the 1600m. Over the remainder of the post season, Hoey would gain All-American status on the track with strong showings at New Balance Nationals and Junior Nationals where he rubbed elbows with guys like Grant Fisher, Blake Haney and Andrew Hunter.

Ultimately, both guys have stacked resumes. By track PRs Brophy holds 1:55/4:15/8:57 with a 1:54 split and Hoey has 1:53/4:10/9:05 (the 9:05 coming from his sophomore year at Malvern Prep). Both guys are on teams with high aspirations for this year although Jaxson likely has the better training partners on paper (DT West has four guys who made this list). Brophy has the experience having run and dominated at Hershey a year ago while Jaxson will be a rookie on the course, although Jaxson now has experience on a variety of big stages both in and out of PA. Brophy has a fierce kick, but so too does Jaxson.

I think if you are a coach, you are just fine having either of them. Both are expected to be absolute monsters this year. And of course the best news is, because Jaxson is now in the PIAA, we should get an answer to this question this year at Hershey. That’s pretty cool.