The XC Top 50: #20-11

by Jarrett Felix

A Quick Reminder of 50-21 ...
50. Dan Quigley
49. Dan Filler
48. Jack Carmody
47. Liam Galligan
46. Seth Slavin
45. PJ Murray
44. Nick Feffer
43. Grayson Hepp
42. Gabriel Allgayer
41. Zach Skolnekovich
40. Cooper Leslie
39. Patrick Grant
38. Eric Kennedy
37. Colin Wills
36. Andrew Hanna
35. Nick Wolk
34. Josh Higgins
33. Kyler Shea
32. Joe Maguire
31. Tucker Desko
30. Cody DiVecchio
29. Matt Wisner
28. Brian Delaney
27. Bryce Descavisch
26. Todd Gunzenhauser
25. Jake Susalla
24. Ryan Barton
23. Matt Kravitz
22. Connor McMenamin
21. Kevin Lapsansky

20. Rock Fortna, Senior CB West (1 AAA)

Over the years, Central Bucks West has been more of a track school than a cross country school. They won an indoor and outdoor state championship in the 4x8 in 2011 as well as a pair of silvers in 2010. They also grabbed bronze outdoors in 2008 and qualified for the Championship of America in 2015. However, on the trails, they had failed to qualify for states as a team up until this past year, 2014, which I think might have been the first time in program history they qualified a team to Hershey.

But things have changed quickly for West as they had two top 50 finishers at states a year ago with another right on the bubble and all three of those runners are back this year. The top returner is Carrick “Rock” Fortna who placed 43^rd at states a year ago after finishing 13^th at Districts and 3^rd at the Suburban One League Continental championships behind two Foot Locker Finalists (Jake Brophy and Casey Comber). On the track Fortna really impressed, running multiple 1:54 type legs anchoring West’s 4x8 and adding a 4:17 1600m (with a reported 4:16 split as well).

Rock has a great group of training partners including a trio of Juniors in Brian Iatarola, Declan McDonald and Brian Mass who have all shown potential to produce on hilly courses during their sophomore seasons. West was leading the state championships at the mile as a team and in third at two miles a year ago before fading back to sixth. I think they will be hungry for redemption this year and Fortna is the man with the talent to lead them.

19. Will Loevner, Senior Winchester Thurston (7 A)

A year ago York Suburban came out of the wood work at the Carlisle Invitational to surprise the rest of the state with wins against a crew of PA’s top teams. They were just a small school (AA), but they showed they could hang with the big boys. By season’s end, however, there was another small school that I felt had the potential to run with the big boys: A StateChampions Winchester Thurston.

When Winchester Thurston’s top 5 eventually came together at the state championships at Hershey, it was truly an impressive pack to observe and on the track they only continued to shine. The leader of the group was Will Loevner who started the year a bit rocky before skyrocketing up the rankings at season’s end finishing 4^th at Districts and then 4^th at States. Indoors he ran 8:50 or under for 3,000m three straight weeks, the last of which was an 8:48 PR at the state championships where he was barely edged out for a medal. Outdoor’s he didn’t quite maintain that sort of pace (a lot of guys he finished around at states like Power, Gunzenhauser and Wharrey ended up running sub 9:20) he still ran a solid 9:30 for 3200m and grabbed an 8^th place medal at the state championships.

Loevner always seems to find another gear for states (and districts) doing his best running under the bright lights. As mentioned, he was 4^th at states in XC, 8^th at states this outdoors in a loaded field and 3^rd at states outdoors in the 3200m as a sophomore. Will has a crew of great training partners including three honorable mentions in Ben Littman, Tristan Forsythe and Shaun Hay, a pack that is incredibly rare to have at a single A school. That could give Loevner the extra push he needs to deliver an individual gold to go with his team one.

18. Jacob Stupak, Senior North Allegheny (7 AAA)

Since 2005, North Allegheny has had at least one state medalist every single year: the only school to pull this off over that window. This year will certainly be tricky considering they graduated their top three from their state championship squad a year ago, but considering as recently as 2012 they were able to completely retool their line up and get a 15^th place finish out of varsity rookie Josh Zemet, it would be silly to doubt these guys.

And Stupak is far from a varsity rookie. A year ago at Pre States, North Allegheny struggled to outlast Cardinal O’Hara and was nearly beaten by district rivals Mount Lebanon. The reason was NA’s 4-5 were too far back in the field which included Stupak who just 45^th at the meet. Flash forward to the end of the season where Stupak turned it up a notch. He finished 12^th at Tri States, 13^th at WPIALs and then capped it off with a critical 45^th place finish at states (the same place as Pre-States in a dramatically more talented and deeper field). He moved from 102^nd at 2 miles to 45^th at the finish, pulling teammate Zach Dieble with him and clinching the title. On the track Stupak again came on strong over the final meets of the season, rallying to a 4:19 1600m PR and grabbing his first individual state medal in the state finals in the event.

The rise of Stupak over the stretch run of these two seasons makes me believe he could be a state medal threat when he returns to Hershey. The fact that he is projected to be the #1 runner on a North Allegheny team that has 16 state medalists in 10 years makes me thing he could compete for a District title.

17. Jack DiCintio, Senior Wyomissing (3 AA)

Wyomissing has been on fire lately. They have stacked up state medals both indoors and out grabbed some state championships and collected three top five finishes in XC (two by Kyle Shinn and one by DiCintio). As a Junior last year, DiCintio finished 2^nd at the AA State Championships behind only the now three time state champion (and two time runner up) Dominic Hockenbury of Lake Lehman. The breakthrough came after a win at his Berks league championships and a third place finish at Districts (after going out very hard for the opening half of the race).

This past outdoors, DiCintio continued to have success, running 9:29 for 3200m but also winning a gold medal on the team’s 4x800m relay (he ran a 1:59 in the open 800 as a sophomore). He has excellent range over the track distances which means he can run well on a variety of courses during the XC season. At this point, Hockenbury seems almost unstoppable in his quest for repeat state gold, but remember that DiCintio was the closest man to him the last time around.

16. Will Kachman, Senior Bedford (5 AA)

At the 2013 XC State Championships, Senior Dominic Deluca won state gold, but pushing him to take silver and bronze were a pair of sophomores: Dominic Hockenbury and Will Kachman. The following outdoors, Hockenbury upgraded from silver to gold and, again, Kachman finished one place behind. The 2014-2015 season did not quite follow suit but Will still snagged 10^th at the state championships in XC and 3^rd outdoors in the 3200m, running an impressive 9:18 3200m PR and closing fast on second place finisher Griffin Molino.

Kachman’s sophomore XC season, in many ways, was better than his junior year and likely indicates more of his peak potential. It’s also clear he is not getting stagnant in his development as his junior track season produced a roughly 13 second PR in the 3200m and impressive developments in speed (he ran a leg on Bedford’s state finals qualifying 4x8). If he pieces together the best from his last two years of work, Kachman may be AA’s best chance of unseating Hock.

15. Rob Morro, Senior Cardinal O’Hara (12 AAA)

14. Ryan James, Junior Cardinal O’Hara (12 AAA)
Cardinal O’Hara and the rest of the PCL joined the PIAA prior to the 2008 Cross Country season. It took the squad until 2010 to unseat LaSalle as the league’s top team at states, but since that season O’Hara has finished no worse than 3^rd at the state championships and has coached 11 state medalists, an average of over two per year during that span. In fact, starting in 2011 O’Hara has had two runners in the top 11 at states on three different occasions and two in the top 15 every year. They also added two years with three state medalists and another year of three in the top 27. That sort of history suggests big things for O’Hara’s two returning state medalists Rob Morro (22^nd) and Ryan James (15^th).

Morro is coming off a terrific track season that included state gold in the DMR and a 3:10 type split at 1200m. He also showcased ranged from 1:58 to 4:24 (full mile) to 9:28 with a few clutch runs at PCLs and D12s mixed in. During last XC Morro was solid as well (3^rd at DELCOs, PCLs and D12s behind only the James bros), but consistently behind Ryan. He may have narrowed the gap during this past track season considering his strong year.

As has been mentioned, Ryan James was likely underrated for most of last XC season. James was 2^nd at DELCOs, PCLs and D12s behind only his brother Kevin, one of the most accomplished runners in state history. Many years Ryan would have been holding triple gold over that stretch … and he was only a sophomore. He also added top 10 runs at Foundation (6^th) and Briarwood (8^th). In addition to his 15^th place finish at states (#2 sophomore behind Nate Henderson and a better, faster finish than Kevin placed as a soph) he also was an impressive 26^th place at the NX Northeast Regional meet.

His track season was not quite at the same level as Morro’s, but he still dropped 4:26, 9:48 and, most impressively, 15:47, on the track as he sets up to enter his Junior year and hopefully benefit from the sophomore to junior jump. 14^th might be too low when all is said and done.

13. Spencer Smucker, Sophomore West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)

I’ve said lots of nice stuff so far about North Allegheny and O’Hara, but keep in mind that Henderson has been just as good if not better over the last decade. They’ve won two state titles and two silvers to pair with a string of District One victories and they have had 16 medalists and 30 top 50 finishers dating back to the 2006 state meet, both marks are the best of any team during that stretch.

Also in play here, Spencer Smucker became the first freshman medalist since 2004 when he finished 24^th at the State Championships this past fall. History tells us that sophomores aging up to juniors make a huge jump, but the freshman to sophomore jump is likely, in most cases, even bigger. Freshman usually barely make a dent on a team’s roster and dating back to 2006, only two freshman have cracked the state’s top 50: Jake Brophy and Smucker.

Sophomores are significantly more likely to be contributors and even medal threats at the state level. Over the last nine years, we have seen 17 sophomore state medalists, an average of about two per year as opposed to just one freshman total. The sophomore to junior jump is important because juniors are much more likely to be state championship contenders in addition to the fact that their medal odds go sky rocketing. Juniors have three of the last four AAA state championships and have accounted for almost half of the top finishes. In addition, there have been 70 junior state medalists in the past nine years, an average of almost 8 a year, four times as many as the sophomores.

So what does all this have to do with Spencer Smucker (apologies to Spence, but had to get the stats out of the way)? History tells us that a frosh this good, has a chance to become something great. Jake Brophy, 30^th as a frosh in 2012, is fresh off a destructive run at the state championships that included a massive state record as just a Junior. Vince McNally, 13^th as a freshman, finished 3^rd as a sophomore running 15:02 and won an outdoor title in the 1600m as a Junior before qualifying for Footlocker Nats as a Senior. And Craig Miller, 5^th as a frosh in 2002, went on to win three XC state titles in a row.

Spence is in an excellent program at Henderson that has cultivated talent before. After a winter season that included wrestling, he progressed nicely on the track running 4:24 for 1600m. He was off to a relatively slow start last fall placing 58^th at Carlisle before picking up steam down the stretch to place 7^th at Chesmonts, 18^th at Districts and then 24^th at states. I’m not sure he will set the world ablaze from day one, but by season’s end this 13^th ranking may end up looking like a massive undervaluing.

12. Alex Milligan, Senior State College (6 AAA)

State College will enter the 2015 Cross Country Season two years removed their top five finish at the state meet, hoping to rebound after finishing outside of the top 10 last year. The good news is, during track season it appeared that this squad became a bit more comfortable with their identity and the young team they will bring into this year’s XC season should be brimming with confidence.

The catalyst for the team’s success in each of the past three seasons has been Alex Milligan who beat Brad Foust last fall for the district title and then backed up the win with a 16^th place finish at states, the highest finisher from D6 since Wade Endress in 2010. On the track, Milligan was perhaps even better as he anchored his 4x8 squad to a bronze medaland new school record with a 1:53 split and then turned right around and PRed in the 1600m by roughly four seconds, running 4:17 and placing 5^th overall.

Milligan’s excellent double backs up an XC resume that, in addition to his championship finishes, included a 6^th place finish at Mid Penns, an 18^th place finish at Carlisle and a 16^th place run at Pre States. He gained rapid momentum in the stretch run of cross and track (I believe he PRed 4 straight times by a combined total of roughly 12 seconds at outdoor states) so it will be interesting to see if he can utilize this peaking ability to contend for a top five spot at states this fall.

11. Henry Sappey, Senior Downingtown West (1 AAA)

Coming into the 2014 season there was some buzz about the young pack of talented runners at Downingtown West waiting to break onto the state scene. Although I thought the group had some potential, I certainly didn’t see them as a serious state or district threat in the preseason, mainly because I did not see a front runner on the roster who could lead the team in big moments. Then Henry Sappey came along.

From the first meet Abington, Sappey was a valuable low stick for West and he continued that role throughout the season in impressive fashion. Sappey was 7^th at Carlisle, 1^st at Chesmonts, 7^th at Districts and then 10^th at States a remarkable set of Top 10 finishes for someone who, as far as I know, had never qualified for a state championship before. His leadership helped the team grab a league title, sneak into the state championships out of D1 and then finish things off with a 4^th place team finish in Hershey.

On the track, Sappey got a chance to improve his speed with a quiet indoors that featured a variety of relay legs for the team’s up and coming DMR and 4x8. Otudoors he added a solid 9:30 and ran a 4:24 full mile at the Henderson Distance Festival to win his section. His track times are not quite as strong as some other members of the top group, but his impressive 2014 resume on the trails earned him a spot in the top 12. Also, it’s important to remember that he should have an excellent crew to train with at Downingtown West.

 PS Fans of the Top 50 List, the final 10 will be released Friday Night at 7 PM, but a sneak preview will be available at our Twitter Account if you follow along @TheRealTrain11