800
Apparently
no one told the class of 2019 that true freshman are not supposed to dominate
an event, and if anyone did send out that memo, a few guys threw caution to the
wind and did just that: dominate. Donovan Brazier ran the fastest time in the
country in 1:45.93…he did that in January. Moreover, Brazier, Isaiah Harris,
and Rob Heppenstall all won their respective conference title for the 800 (SEC,
Big Ten, and ACC respectively). Throw Carlton Orange into that group, and you
got a group of freshmen who kicking butt and taking names. Too bad for them,
the upperclassmen running the 800 have formed a field with as much talent and
depth as any in recent memory. Clayton Murphy is an All-American and World Team
Qualifier in the 800. Brandon Kidder, Shaq Walker, Dylan Capwell, and Andres
Arroyo have also received All-American honors in the half mile. Just for good
measure, Edward Rutto and Hector Hernandez ran sub 1:47 this indoor season.
That isn’t even the entire field, which exclusively includes runners who dipped
under 1:48 this season. Given this ridiculously loaded field of 800 runners,
how does one even go about making predictions? Well, I’ll give it my best try,
using raw talent, experience, and the ability to survive rounds as my
guidelines:
Top 8
1. Clayton Murphy (Akron) 5. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
2. Brannon Kidder (Penn State) 6. Joseph White (Georgetown)
3. Shaquille Walker (BYU) 7. Dylan Capwell (Monmouth)
4. Isaiah Harris (Penn State) 8. Andres Arroyo (Florida)
Clayton Murphy has proven his ability to race multiple times
over a weekend. He’s just got the strongest resume of anyone in the field,
although it was not easy snubbing Kidder. Walker is uber talented, and he could
very easily take this race. Harris has been super consistent all season and has
improved seemingly every week, and I just like him a little more than Brazier.
White is my sleeper in this race. This race is going to be amazing to follow,
but from a predictor’s point of view, I miss the days of Edward Kemboi.
Mile
I really
like Edward Cheserek. Not only is he an amazing athlete, but picking him to win
is just default. When he scratched the mile, I was comfortable with the
fallback of picking Izaic Yorks, who ran 3:53, and was a shoo-in to be the
favorite in the mile. He had other plans. I think he was intentionally just
toying with us writers. Now what we have is a wide open field, with 16 athletes
who are next to impossible to differentiate. There are a few names that can be
separated from the herd: Blake Haney was an All-American in the 1500 outdoors
as a true freshman and is the fastest seed in the race. Sam Prakel is an Oregon
Duck, which is like having a PhD in being an All American Miler (See Daniel
Winn and Johnny Gregorek). Tommy Awad ran 3:57 in Haney’s 3:56 race, and look
oh-so fly doing it. Jacob Burcham has been pretty solid all year round, and
looked strong taking down Chad Noelle at Big 12s in the DMR. Cole Williams and
Amos Bartelsmeyer run for Georgetown, who are just always right there. Everyone
else in the field is close, but may not have the credentials of those mentioned
above.
Top 8
1. Blake Haney (Oregon) 5. Sam Prakel (Oregon)
2. Cole Williams (Georgetown) 6. Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown)
3. Jonah Koech (UTEP) 7. Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)
4. Thomas Awad (Penn) 8. Julian Oakley (Providence)
Haney is simply the favorite in a somewhat homogenous field.
Koech sort of snuck under the radar all track season, but after his cross
season, I think he’ll show his stuff on the oval. Awad is in real good shape,
and Prakel closed his DMR anchor in 55 to ensure Oregon’s spot at this meet.
There was a lot of “gut-feeling” that went into the rest of these predictions.
3000
Finally, an
event with the king! Unfortunately for Ches (and us predictors), this could be
his third race of the weekend, and the talent in the field is formidable. A few
weeks ago, I said if anyone could beat Ches, it was Sean McGorty. McGorty ended
up losing that 3k in Iowa, but he did prove me right later with his 3:53. He
ran 3:53 on the 3k training, it’s time to see what he can do in a 3k. Oh yeah,
the guy who beat McGorty in that 3k? Justyn Knight, he’ll be in this race, and
he’ll be fresh. Patrick Tiernan, the man with the honor of finishing behind
Ches at XC Nats will also throw his hat in the ring, as will the other 3:53
runner in Yorks. Pierce Murphy and Ahmed Bile have shown their formidable
closing speed, and should it be a hard kick to the finish, they’ll be right
there as well. I feel like these prediction contests are just getting harder
and harder…
Top 8
1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon) 5. Izaic Yorks (Washington)
2. Sean McGorty (Stanford) 6. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)
3. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) 7. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
4. Ahmed Bile (Georgetown) 8. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
I so badly want to go with McGorty
here. I say weeks in advance he can beat Ches, I stick to my guns, and he pulls
off the upset? I look like a gosh-darn genius (shout out to Jarrett for the
word choice). Never the less, Ches ran 7:40. He’s not losing the 3k. Behind him
and McGorty, Knight will be all in on this race, and I can’t see anyone else in
the field beating him given what he’s accomplished this season. Bile snubbed
the mile for this event, and has the chops to do well. I will never understand
Yorks’ rationale racing here, but 3:53 is convincing enough to get him top 5. I
think Tiernan is better than 8th, but I foresee him taking the lead
in this race somewhat early on, and that could hurt him in the end.
5000
Yes, finally. Ches wins this race, no ifs, ands, or buts.
Now, what about second through eighth? I proclaimed Futsum Zienasellassie to be
a threat in the 3k, which is subsequently failed to qualify for. It wasn’t my
proudest moment, but I think this race says redemption. Tommy Curtain has
beaten Ches head-to-head in a collegiate race; that’s more rare than a
profanity leaving the mouth of Jarrett “ETrained into never swearing again”
Felix. He needs no more qualification. Colin Bennie and Marc Scott both have
super easy names to remember…oh, and they both broke 13:40 this season. Jake
Leingang goes to Oregon, I heard they’re a decent distance school. Luis Vargas
just seems to be popping up places, so he shouldn’t be counted out, and Morgan
Pearson and Pierce Murphy are coached by Mark Wetmore, who is literally the
yoda of collegiate distance running. Sure, this race doesn’t have all the
sexiness of the 800 or 3k, but it’ll be fun regardless.
Top 8
1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon) 5. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
2. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech) 6. Jake Leingang (Oregon)
3. Futsum Zienasellassie (Northern Arizona) 7. Luis Vargas (NC State)
4. Marc Scott (Tulsa) 8. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)
DMR
We
as running fans are certainly in for treat in the form of this DMR. Not only is
the DMR just the coolest race (I can never articulate why, but it just seems to
be a race people love), but this field is incredibly historic. The slowest seed
in the race? 9:30.48 for Ole Miss (who by the way have a sub 4 miler on the 400
leg). Everyone else is sub 9:30. Let’s run down who I think should the
favorites for this race: Oklahoma State are going all in, as Chad Noelle and
Josh Thompson will both be fresh for this race, and they are the fastest seed
in the race. It remains to be seen who will run what (I’m leaning towards Chad
running the 1200 to get out with a lead), but they will be in contention
regardless. Washington and Stanford have Yorks and McGorty respectively, and a
solid team in front of them. Georgetown is Georgetown, and they have strong
runners on every single leg; they may not have the flashiest anchor, but it’s
hard to find a weak spot on that team. Ole Miss have a really strong team as
well, and if Dominic and Engels race well on the 1200 and 800, that may be
enough to put Sean Tobin in a position to win. Villanova has a strong team as
well, and I think they best way for them to compete is for Jordy to get out in
front on the 1200 and attempt to win the race wire to wire. I doubt they’ll do
this, but it’d be fun to see. Penn State is another team that is simply
stacked. Jordan Mankins ran a solid opening leg oh so long ago when they ran
9:27.20, and he’s improved his open 800 PR. Harris has been great this season,
and is a force on the 800, and then we all know what Kidder can do on the
anchor. Oh, and of course Oregon. No one knows what Ches will run, but with
Haney and Prakel, they’ll compete with or without the King. As they say, what a
time to be alive.
Top 8
1. Penn State 5. Ole Miss
2. OKST 6. Washington
3. Stanford 7. Georgetown
4. Oregon 8. Virginia
I know that this may be
controversial, but I think it’s so easy to forget how well Penn State ran way
back when. Harris and Mankins have gotten considerably better since that
9:27.20, and I think Kidder can bounce back from the 800 prelims (as can Harris)
to deliver on the anchor. Oklahoma State is going all in on the race, but with
Chad Noelle seemingly more focused on his year beyond indoor and with
Thompson’s inexperience in races of this magnitude, they just don’t what it
takes to get the W for me. As for Oregon, this is a bit of a shot in the dark.
We don’t know if Ches is running. If he is running, we don’t know how fast the
5k will play out and if he’ll be able to bounce back that quickly. I figure
sticking them in the middle is the best way for me to minimize potential
points. This may be a bit of a cop out, but we here at Etrain are cutthroat in
our prediction contests.
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