What 2 Watch 4: NCAA

Picking the Best of an Exciting NCAA Meet

Caleb Gatchell, Alex Fox, Garrett Zatlin

​It has been a banner year for men’s distance running in the NCAA. In almost every event, we’ve seen fireworks. With this in mind, it’s almost impossible to say which event at the Indoor Championships will be the most exhilarating. Luckily, we writers are giving you a viewers’ guidebook to the upcoming NCAA meet: Caleb gives you the rundown on a truly wide-open mile, Garrett Zatlin previews a 3k with some of the best names in recent history, and I offer my scoop on a potentially historic DMR. With all of this anticipation, what are you looking forward to the most?

3000: The King vs The World 

The 3k. What is it about this event that has so many of the best runners in the nation ditching the mile in order to run it? I wish I had the answer to that, but all I know is that this field could be one of the best 3k fields we've seen in a very long time.

So where do we start with this 16-man group? I think we have to start with Edward Cheserek who ran an NCAA #2 All-Time 3k at Millrose with a time of 7:40. Clearly, he is the favorite in this race and I don't think anyone will argue that. However, Cheserek does have the 5000 the day before with the possibility of the DMR as well (although that's pretty doubtful). A little over three miles of racing before you try to fend off the likes of Knight, Tiernan, McGorty, and company isn't always the easiest thing to do.

As we look into this field, who could upset The King? Tiernan will be completely fresh and has made Cheserek work for his wins before (think XC nationals this past fall). He has a 7:48 this season and could be the guy who outlasts Cheserek in a "grind-it-out" type race. Then there's Sean McGorty who has been on absolute fire this season with PR's of 3:53 and 7:48. Unfortunately, McGorty just can't seem to finish his races with a win. He has lost three races by less than a tenth of a second this season and he will have to face two of those opponents again (Izaic Yorks and Justyn Knight). 

Yorks and Knight are interesting entries for this race. Yorks has always been known as more of an 800/mile type runner and has a 3:53 mile this season. Meanwhile, Knight has developed a finishing kick of his own this winter with outstanding kicks to take down Thomas Curtin at ACC's and Sean McGorty at the ISU Classic.With Cheserek, things typically get tactical and the race may play out slower than the seed times show. If Yorks and Knight can stick around long enough, they could make for an exciting finish and bust out a strong last lap.

There are certainly other guys that could contend in this loaded field. For me, Pierce Murphy and Luis Vargas come to mind. Murphy was the only one who kept it close against Cheserek when they raced the 5000 at UW. He has shown tremendous turnover at Washington as well as at the MPSF championships. Then there's Vargas who has competed against some of the best in the nation time and time again. He's a grinder and isn't afraid to make things fast in the middle of the race. He may not win, but he could set up the race for someone other than Cheserek to get the title. 

There are plenty of scenarios for this race, but only on Saturday at 6:25pm will we see how this race plays out.

A Manic Mile: A Guide to the Most Unpredictable Event of the Weekend

I think a lot of people were disappointed when the entries for the mile came out because of how many of the top seeds scratched. However, I think that makes this race a lot more intriguing and all the more worth watching. Also, this field is pretty talented anyway. I mean, how many times do people sigh and say “That’s all” when they hear Oregon’s mile record holder is in the race? Wait, he is? Yup, that’s right. Blake Haney has the mile record for Oregon. He’s been racing really well and really consistently since outdoors last year, and I just can’t see anyone beating him. We’ve also got some wildcards in Henry Wynne and Jonah Koech that I think could really shake things up here. Wynne held off Knight in the DMR at ACCs, and he’s been running really well all season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was top 5. Then there’s Koech. We’ve all heard big things about him and this is his first big chance to shine on the track. It will be interesting to see how he handles the prelims and his first match-up with the other top milers in the NCAA. Thomas Awad really surprised me with his decision to focus on the mile this year, but it obviously paid off with a really nice 3:57 at the Armory. He’ll be a big name to watch, but my gut says he won’t be in it the last 200. I have nothing against him, I’m just not sold on his ability to execute in championship races just yet. Georgetown will also be well represented with 2 of their 4 sub 3:59 guys in the race. I think one of them will nab a top 8 spot, I’m just not sure which one. Probably Cole Williams, if I had to pick one. He’s got nasty speed and that’s a huge advantage in championship races. Jacob Burcham has had a big time year for Oklahoma and he comes in seeded 4th. I really like the way he’s been racing, and I think he is ready to finish the season with a bang. Finally, my sleeper pick is David Elliott from Boise State. He is seeded third so I’m not sure he counts as a sleeper, but not many people have heard of him, so I’m going to say he does. He has had an absolutely amazing season dropping his previous pr by 12 seconds. He also ran well at NCAAs outdoors last year, so I think it’s fair to say he knows how to negotiate prelims and championship style racing. Overall I think this is going to be a really fun race to watch, especially over the last 600. I don’t see anyone taking it out super quick, but there are a few guys in this field who can really close. It’s going to be a prototypical NCAA final, and maybe I’m in the minority here, but I think that’s really exciting to watch. 

DMR: Don’t Miss (this) Race

​We’ve all seen the numbers. This year has been historic for the DMR, with 6 of the 12 fastest times in NCAA history being run in a single season. Some attribute the success of the event to meets like Alex Wilson with stacked DMR races, others seem to think the NCAA overall has improved. Regardless of the reasoning, one thing is clear: the Distance Medley Relay at the NCAA Indoor Track and Field Championships is one for the ages. In order to prove that anyone reading this should be glued to their computer or television in anticipation this Friday, I will go through the race, team by team, leg by leg (to the best of my ability, it’s possible alternates race on Friday). I will show not only that this race is going to incredibly competitive, but we could also see the NCAA record fall. 

​To begin with, there are a few teams that I don’t really see influencing the race too heavily: Virginia, Michigan, UCLA, and Oklahoma. Georgetown is also an interesting case. They have a solid team top to bottom, but with Bartelsmeyer and Cole Williams both in the mile and Joseph White in the 800, this team isn’t what it could’ve been. This isn’t to say these five schools don’t have great teams, because they do. They just won’t impact the outcome of the race (finish and time) as much as the other seven teams. A second big assumption I’m going to make is Edward Cheserek will be on the anchor for the Oregon Ducks; yes, I know the 5k is right before the DMR, but here’s a condensed version of my rationale for the position. First, this triple (DMR/5k/3k) has been accomplished by Galen Rupp. Sure, Rupp was a great college runner, but so is Ches. People were talking about Ches going Mile/3k/5k, and if he could’ve pulled that off (which hasn’t been done), I think he’ll make a run at a triple that has been done. Secondly, I think the 5k will come down to a sit and kick, limiting the amount of effort Ches will have to exert. Yes, he’ll be forced to run somewhat, but it won’t be a 13:35. We’ve all seen these championship races come down to a 400 or 800 meter kick, and this should be no different. Moreover, the main contenders in the race (Scott, Curtin, Pearson, Murphy) have all been in a position to push the pace of a championship race instead of facing a deadly kick from Ches or Eric Jenkins, and they’ve avoided that tactic. They aren’t beating Ches, and they will put themselves in the best position to place highly; this means averting the risk that is going out hard and potentially blowing up, which is that much more likely in a 5k. All of this means the first 4,000 or so meters of the 5k will be a bit of a jog-fest, allowing Ches to come out strong during the DMR. With this in mind, let’s run through the remaining seven teams and see why they can compete and how they’ll affect the race. 

Villanova: I’ve listed this team first, not because I think they can or will win the race, but because their potential to open it up on the front end. Villanova qualified with a team led-off by Jordy Williamsz, and despite speculation he will anchor the Wildcats, I think their order remains the same. Robert Denault is a 3:58 miler, but I don’t think he can offer the same speed as Williamsz for the 1200; Villanova gains more with Denault on the mile and Williamsz on the 1200 in my opinion. With this in mind, I think unlike in years past, Jordy takes the 1200 hard and really opens up teams for the rest of the race. This gives Villanova the best chance to be in the mix towards the end, but maybe more importantly, guarantees fast legs for the remainder of the race. Williamsz will hand off in first in around 2:51, and will force other teams to play catch up for the rest of the race.

Ole Miss: A team that was largely disappointing during Cross Country is seeking redemption now in the DMR; many of their newly acquired transfers are more suited for this race as opposed to 8ks and 10ks, and this team is one of the best overall squads. Starting on the 1200, Robert Domanic is a runner that should handoff towards the front of the pack, just as he did at the Penn State meet. Ole Miss follows him up with Ryan Manahan and Craig Engels; Manahan is a solid 400 guy and Engels should be one of the fastest 800 legs in the race, meaning Sean Tobin should get the baton near or in the lead. Tobin is a sub 4 miler, but he doesn’t necessarily have the kick speed of other anchors. He probably doesn’t have the chops to win the race, but he probably will want to separate the lead pack from the field to ensure a nice finish for his team. With Jordy pushing the pace on the front end and Tobin moving on the anchor, I think you can see where I’m going with this: a championship race that is fast…very fast.   

Oklahoma State: Another team going all in for the DMR, as mile qualifier Josh Thompson and the top returner from the indoor mile Chad Noelle have both committed to this race. It appears that Chad will be on the 1200, and given his ability to hang in any type of race (remember, he ran 3:36 in addition to winning a slow national title last year), he’ll be with Jordy all the way. He hasn’t looked great this season, but he hasn’t really been put in a position to breakout yet. This will be it. On the anchor, Josh Thompson has been one of the breakout runners in the nation this year. He ran 3:56 when OKST ran their nation leading time of 9:26, and he has improved at every meet this season. What I am indicating here is that this Oklahoma State team, which already ran the second fastest DMR in NCAA history, will be in a position to run even faster. It just gets better and better. 

Penn State: I love this Penn State DMR team. Sure, they have two legs doubling back from the 800, but man, they ran 9:27.20 what feels like ages ago. Their 1200, Jordan Mankins, arch-nemesis of our own Evan Hatton, ran a hand-timed 2:55. Since then, his open 800 PR has lowered from 1:50 to 1:48.9. He’s gotten faster this season, and that’ll surely translate on the fast opening leg. Isaiah Harris has arguably been the most consistent 800 runner in the country this year, and since he ran on the 9:27 team, he broke the Big 10 800 record. He’ll be charging on the 800 leg, as he’s shown he can motor and double well. Finally, we get to their anchor, Brandon Kidder. I know he’s also coming back from the 800, but he’s shown he can run on the double. Moreover, this is a guy who knows how to win. He beat out Sean McGorty, who later ran 3:53, so that should be a good indicator of Kidder’s mile chops. He puts his team in a position to win any kind of race, and in a fast one, he will excel. 

Stanford and Washington: I’ve grouped these two teams for an obvious reason: they’re both from the west coast…no, it’s their anchors. Earlier in the season, Washington has Yorks running the 800, but there is just no chance he doesn’t anchor the DMR. Both teams have solid DMR teams, with guys like Blake Nelson and sub 4 guy Thomas Coyle, but they aren’t as strong as some of the other opening three legs. What this means is we get to see a fresh Yorks and a fresh McGorty chasing. Wow. McGorty is a true strength guy, and when he is running from behind, I think he can make up a lot of ground over 1600 meters; Yorks has more speed than McGorty, and if he runs a smart leg, he can close the gap and potentially run away with the race in dramatic fashion. It is not often we get to see two 3:53 milers in a DMR, and the way this race will play out, we will see fireworks from them.

Oregon: I’ve saved Oregon for last because they’re such an interesting case. I’ve already laid out why Ches will race, but I still question whether this will be enough for them to win. On the 1200, it appears as though Blake Haney will be running; he has run 2:54, but coming back from the mile, he might not be 100%. Haney should still run a fast opening leg, but with the talent on the 1200, he should be a couple seconds back. The Ducks should make up some time on the 400 leg (although Marcus Chambers isn’t listed on the heat sheet, it makes no sense for him not to run here because he is healthy and not running the open 400). Still, Ches will be getting the baton with ground to make up. If he was fresh, no one in the world predicts against him, but he is coming off the 5k, which is right before the DMR and will take a toll on the king, no matter how slow. Teams in front of him know he will be tired and also know about his kick, and thus will not want to let him back in the race. Anchors with the baton in front of Oregon will be running hard, forcing Ches to use whatever remaining energy he has to get back in the race and thus eliminating his monster kick. This means that Cheserek’s impact on the race might not be him stealing the W, but forcing the field to run insanely fast, front to back. You can’t count him out, but this is the rare occasion where I’m taking the field over the king. 

​There it is: the best indoor Distance Medley Relay ever. No contest. Sure, this breakdown may be idealistic for a fan of fast times, but it is also something that could easily happen. It’s logical from a team standpoint, and the perfect recipe from a fan’s point of view. As I count the hours in anticipation of this race, I am confident in one thing: we will see a new NCAA record by the end of Friday night.