Reactions To NCAA Scratches

By: Garrett Zatlin

I am sorry for not keeping a constant flow of posts coming like I wanted to. School and some laziness got in the way. Other than that, I am very excited to take a deeper look into who's running what at nationals! There were a ton of surprises and scratches that I wasn't expecting. Then again, some of the entries ended up pretty much how I thought they would. Let's take a deeper look at the entries for NCAA's.

Also watch out for a big predictions post this upcoming week! We are only 4 days out after all...

800
Scratches/Defer's (1):
-Ryan Manahan (Mississippi)
Last Man In: 
-Will Teubel (Iowa)
First Man Out: 
-Craig Engels (Mississippi)

Not many surprises here. I expected the entire top 16 of this field to enter, but Ryan Manahan threw me off by forgoing the 800 to focus on the DMR. Maybe Mississippi thought they could get Engels (18th in the nation) in with Manahan and someone else dropping. Unfortunately, they were one scratch short.

We shouldn't really be surprised that only Manahan scratched. Clayton Murphy was the only individual in this field that was qualified for another open event (the mile, which he scratched from). The 800 was the only option for most of this field (unless they had DMR duties like Penn State and Ole Miss).

Mile
Scratches/Defer's (11):
-Izaic Yorks (Washington)
-Sean McGorty (Stanford)
-Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
-Futsum Ziensellaassie (Northern Arizona)
-Clayton Murphy (Akron)
-Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
-Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)
-Ahmed Bile (Georgetown)
-Joshua Thompson (Oklahoma State)
-Michael Lederhouse (Georgetown)
-Robert Denault (Villanova)
Last Man In:
-Rob Napolitano (Columbia)
First Man Out:
-Zach Perrin (Colorado)

This was by far the most surprising field for everyone who follows the sport. There were so many scratches in favor of the 3k that it has now left the mile almost wide open for anyone to get a title.

Let's break down what we shouldn't be surprised about...

Sean McGorty already said in an interview that he would be focusing on the DMR and 3k. That's not too surprising when you consider that Stanford will be one of the very few fresh squads in the DMR that could fight for a title. Other unsurprising scratches include Futsum Z. (who is best suited for the 5k), Clayton Murphy (who is a favorite for the 800 title), Robert Denault, Josh Thompson, and Michael Lederhouse (all of whom are pursuing a fresh DMR).

However, it's the other scratches that really took everyone by surprise.

I was convinced that Cheserek was doing the DMR/Mile/3k triple. It seemed like it was his best chance to get three golds while maximizing team points. But for him to go 5k/3k/(DMR?) leaves a huge gap in who the title favorite should be.

So who was the next favorite after Cheserek? It had to be Yorks right? The fastest miler in the nation HAD to run the mile...right? Yorks just ran 3:53, beat Sean McGorty, and would've been a comfortable favorite for the title. However, for some reason, Yorks didn't see it that way and decided to go 3k (which will probably be in addition to the DMR). His goal is probably to be fresh for the D-Med, but that is a huge gamble when you consider that McGorty, Bile, and Williamsz will all be fresh as well.

Knight and McDonald are guys who were towards the top of the 3k field, but they would've faired much better at the mile (where they were also towards the top of). They had to know that Cheserek was running the 3k. Why wouldn't he? Choosing to run the 3k just makes things tougher for these two who have had very impressive mile marks this season. What's even more odd is that they don't have DMR duties to worry about. They could've done the Mile/3k double and at least had a crack at both events.

3000
Scratches/Defer's (1):
-Will Kincaid (Portland)
Last Man In: 
-David Elliot (Boise State)
First Man Out: 
-Matthew Maton (Oregon)

The 3k was probably one of the toughest events when predicting who was going to run it. I don't think anyone expected some of the names in this field to drop the mile in favor for an already stacked 3k. In fact, all but one runner in the top 16 entered in the 3k. The one runner who didn't enter was Will Kincaid who is unfortunately injured according to this article. In my opinion, Kincaid not racing next week is pretty disappointing. If the race gets tactical with Ches (which it will) the only person who would've been able to match Cheserek's turnover in the final 200 meters would have been Kincaid (but that's a different topic).

With so many top-tier names in this race, it sparks some questions as to how this race will play out. Who will push the pace? Who will follow the pacer? Who is going to sit back and kick? At what point in the race will someone attempt to break Ches? There are so many unknowns...

P.S.- I really feel for Maton. He was ranked 18th overall in the nation after a very nice race at MPSF championships. You would've thought that more than one guy would've scratched, but unfortunately for Maton that was not the case.

5000
Scratches/Defer's (1): 
-William Kincaid (Portland)
Last Man In:
-Aaron Nelson (Washington)
First Man Out:
-Reid Buchanan (Portland)

Much like the 3k, I imagined that most of the top 16 would enter this race...just not the entire field. As I mentioned above, Kincaid is injured and is the only scratch for this race. However, the real surprise is Cheserek declaring to run the 5k. I would have never thought he would run the 5k especially with the DMR only 40 minutes after it. Does this mean he stills pursue the DMR even though he has less than an hour to recover?  It has to be the biggest question mark of the weekend.

Cheserek running the 5k/3k also means that he will be fresh for the 3.1 mile-long race. So does that mean he's untouchable? Curtin beat Cheserek this past cross country season after going out hard and never looking back. We could see the same thing happen again this winter, but Cheserek has probably learned from that. There are also strong closers like Marc Scott and Pierce Murphy. Murphy was the only one that was able to stay remotely close to Cheserek at Washington before Cheserek simply outkicked him. There are a lot of "what if's" right now, but Cheserek is the favorite among the loaded field.

DMR
Scratches/Defer's (0):
-N/A
Last Team In:
-Mississippi Rebels
First Team Out:
-Virginia Tech Hokies

There were obviously no surprises as every DMR that qualified has entered. Before conference weekend, it looked like Virginia Tech and Villanova would be in with Oregon as the first team out. However, an Oregon relay without Cheserek was able to put the pieces of the puzzle together and clock and sub 9:30 time. The Villanova Wildcats were smart enough to know a faster Oregon DMR was in the works, and ran a time faster themselves. The chain reaction sent Virginia Tech home as they finished the season ranked 13th in the nation.

Now that the field is set, what are the facts that we know? Well we know that there are plenty of teams that are taking guys out of the 800/Mile to focus on a fresh DMR. Izaic Yorks (Washington), Sean McGorty (Stanford), Robert Denault (Villanova), Josh Thompson (OKST), and Ryan Manahan (Mississippi) are all opting out of the mile or 800 to be fresh for the DMR. With so many fresh legs, a fast race could be very possible.

Of course, the biggest question(s) out of all of these teams comes from the Oregon Ducks. Cheserek is running the 5k less than an hour before this race. Does that mean we won't see him in the DMR? Or will he really make an attempt to come back and anchor his team to victory? Could he still have enough energy to get them the win? It's a bold strategy if that's what the Ducks are thinking. Then again, what if Cheserek isn't running the DMR? Prakel and Haney (or maybe Maton) would most likely take over DMR duties and try to mix it up near the front. Could that squad really compete for the title?