The 800 will probably be the event I'm looking forward to the most. My guess is that Braizer takes it out hard in an effort to get away from Kidder and Walker (guys who have great finishing speed). I wouldn't be surprised if his teammate Hector Hernandez followed him. He's run with him the entire season and I don't see why he wouldn't do the same. Meanwhile, I imagine guys like Kidder and Walker will stay close enough to make a move towards the end while Clayton Murphy quietly buys his time and works his way up through the race. Here's what I got...
- Brannon Kidder (Penn State)
- Clayton Murphy (Akron)
- Shaquille Walker (BYU)
- Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
- Dylan Capwell (Monmouth)
- Hector Hernandez (Texas A&M)
- Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. State)
- Isaiah Harris (Penn State)
I don't like Brazier's inexperience here. He's raced some great names, but he has yet to race a field of anything like this caliber. I don't think his natural raw talent is enough to get him the title. Behind Braizer, I like the guys with experience and consistency. Rutto and Capwell meet the experience part while Harris and Hernandez have been some of the most consistent runners out there this season. However, it's upfront that we need to focus on. We saw from last year that Murphy is a beast in the finals and he can get through the rounds very well. He's a smart racer and will know how to handle this race no matter how it plays out. As for Walker, he is good. Very good. But he doesn't have that x-factor that Murphy or Kidder do. So why do I like Kidder for the title? He has been extremely consistent all season and has shown that he has some of the best speed in the nation with his NCAA record 1k (ran 2:18). He was able to fend off Sean McGorty in a DMR mile splitting 3:56/7 and beat an 800 field earlier this season that included Clayton Murphy, Dylan Capwell, Craig Engels, Joe White, etc. Kidder is for real and it's finally his time to get a title.
It's difficult to say how this race will play out. The mile is always so unpredictable. If I had to guess, someone is going to make a move at 800 and try to break the pack. I imagine that someone would be Julian Oakely or Thomas Awad who are both very smart racers and like to make moves around that halfway point (or a little bit past). I could see guys like Haney and Elliot hanging back and moving with the guys upfront. At that point, it becomes a kickers race to get the final All-American spots and with Henry Wynne's kick, I would be cautious to anyone who thinks they have the title locked up.
- Blake Haney (Oregon)
- Henry Wynne (Virginia)
- Julian Oakley (Providence)
- Thomas Awad (Penn)
- David Elliot (Boise State)
- Adam Palamer (Syracuse)
- Sam Prakel (Oregon)
- Jonah Koech (UTEP)
Honestly, I had Oakley taking the title at first. He's been very underrated this season. He was set to run a very fast time at the John Thomas Terrier Invite at Boston U, but he fell as he was about to make his move and ended the day with a DNF. He later rebounded from the set back to run 3:58 at Millrose. Unfortunately, I just don't see him being able to have the finishing speed with guys like Haney and Wynne who will be strong to stick around with a fast pace, and be able to finish it off as well. I also really like that Haney has been racing in so many big time meets. He has the experience that very few guys his age typically do. As we move down my predictions, I like David Elliot and Thomas Awad for the experience they bring to the table. Other guys like Adam Palamer and Jonah Koech have great finishing speed could snag the final All-American spots. Sam Prakel has shown he can run with the best and I think he'll make an effort to hang with Haney for as long as he can.
I feel pretty confident as to how this race will play out. Tiernan will make his move to the front early on in an attempt to make a doubling (possibly tripling?) Cheserek burn out. If Cheserek goes, the pack will follow in fear that he gets away. Eventually, it will come down to a "last man standing" towards the end of the race which benefits the grinders like McGorty, Knight, and Murphy. Tiernan will eventually feel the pacing duties he initiated and falter. In the end, this is how it goes...
- Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
- Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
- Sean McGorty (Stanford)
- Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
- Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
- Luis Vargas (NC State)
- Izaic Yorks (Washington)
- Abbey Jefferson (Colorado State)
I really like Sean McGorty. He has to be the unluckiest runner in the nation. This "Tiernan goes hard from the gun" scenario does favor his racing style, but with the DMR the night before, I'm not sure he can pull off the win. I also like Knight for this race because he will be completely fresh. Not only that, but he has developed a kick this winter season that has taken down Thomas Curtin and Sean McGorty. If he sticks around at the end, he should have a high finish. Pierce Murphy is a smart and experienced competitor who will be careful to not get caught up in the action too early. He's also developed some great finishing speed as well. As for the bottom three of my predictions, Abbey Jefferson has shown that he can race well in nearly any field and he's experienced enough to pull off an All-American spot. The same could be said for Luis Vargas who seems to embrace a fast pace. As for Izaic Yorks, I have consistently snubbed him in nearly every race I have done predictions in. Some may believe that he deserves to be higher, but with the way this race is going to play out, I only see him as a strong finisher who snags a final All-American spot. However, if the race gets tactical, Yorks could go possibly contend for the title.
5000
This is another pretty predictable race. Thomas Curtin will take it out hard in order to establish the pace. Cheserek will slowly move up throughout the pack as guys like Ryan Walling and Futsum Z. make an effort to bring Curtin back to the pack. As the race progresses, Cheserek will eventually take over and he will be followed be a pair of kickers who were smart enough to not to get too eager too early. The rest will just be hanging on for dear life...
DMR
I honestly have no idea how this race will play out but there are a couple small details we need to clarify. Cheserek will NOT run this race. If Oregon is pursuing the team title (which they are), then it is much less risky to run Cheserek on the DMR right after running a 5k 30 minutes earlier and have him be less tired for his 3k on Saturday. My other assumption is that Jordy Williamsz, Chad Noelle, and Izaic Yorks will be on the anchor for their respected teams.
Now that that's out of the way, here's my guess as to how the race will play out. Mississippi will open up the race early and get out to a clear lead thanks to a quick 1200 leg. OKST will be the next closest while the rest of the pack stays pretty bunched up. Mississippi will continue to open up their lead thanks to a quick 800 leg and Oklahoma State won't give up much ground. Once the anchor leg's start, things could get messy. Mississippi's Sean Tobin will be running away to survive a group of anchors that make up the best names in the NCAA. Unfortunately for Tobin, he doesn't have the strength to survive this barrage of talent, nor does he have the closing speed to contend with these guys. In the end, it will be...
This is another pretty predictable race. Thomas Curtin will take it out hard in order to establish the pace. Cheserek will slowly move up throughout the pack as guys like Ryan Walling and Futsum Z. make an effort to bring Curtin back to the pack. As the race progresses, Cheserek will eventually take over and he will be followed be a pair of kickers who were smart enough to not to get too eager too early. The rest will just be hanging on for dear life...
- Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
- Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
- Marc Scott (Tulsa)
- Futsum Ziensellassie (Northern Arizona)
- Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)
- Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
- Ryan Walling (Mississippi)
- Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)
I don't think there's any question that Cheserek wins this race. He's smart, he's fresh, and has the best kick in this field. He won't lose. Curtin has gone out hard from time and time again, and although it's worked against Scott and Ches (during XC), I think they've both learned their lesson. Pierce Murphy has been low-key outstanding this season and I think he keeps that up. Guys like Futsum and Walling aren't afraid to go after the pace and will at least be able to distance themselves enough to be top eight. I like the youngsters Bennie and Mock for the fact that they've raced these big names before and are capable of adjusting to a change in pace.
I honestly have no idea how this race will play out but there are a couple small details we need to clarify. Cheserek will NOT run this race. If Oregon is pursuing the team title (which they are), then it is much less risky to run Cheserek on the DMR right after running a 5k 30 minutes earlier and have him be less tired for his 3k on Saturday. My other assumption is that Jordy Williamsz, Chad Noelle, and Izaic Yorks will be on the anchor for their respected teams.
Now that that's out of the way, here's my guess as to how the race will play out. Mississippi will open up the race early and get out to a clear lead thanks to a quick 1200 leg. OKST will be the next closest while the rest of the pack stays pretty bunched up. Mississippi will continue to open up their lead thanks to a quick 800 leg and Oklahoma State won't give up much ground. Once the anchor leg's start, things could get messy. Mississippi's Sean Tobin will be running away to survive a group of anchors that make up the best names in the NCAA. Unfortunately for Tobin, he doesn't have the strength to survive this barrage of talent, nor does he have the closing speed to contend with these guys. In the end, it will be...
- Oklahoma State
- Penn State
- Villanova
- Stanford
- Washington
- Georgetown
- Mississippi
- Oregon
Mississippi is great, but there's no way in the world that Tobin can overcome the guys who will be chasing him. The same goes for Oregon who will probably have a good chunk of their guys doubling and no Cheserek. I took OKST because I liked the idea that Noelle can open up the race, and a smart runner like Josh Thompson can keep his composure and not be intimidated by the other anchors. After all, he did split 3:56 earlier this season. Penn State gets second because that seems to be their spot. They have been so close to the DMR title for so long and if they went fresh, they probably would get it. But with Harris and Kidder both coming off of 800 prelims, I don't think they'll quite have the edge to get the win. They'll have to settle for second. Villanova's Jordy Williamsz will make up for his poor Millrose performance and grab third by out-kicking a slew of runners. I like Sean McGorty, but I'm not a huge fan about the rest of his relay to give them anything better than fourth place. Like Penn State, Georgetown has historically been very good in the DMR and they have too many good pieces to not be in the top eight. As for Washington, I just like the guys in front of them too much. Washington goes to fifth as a gut instinct pick.
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