2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Caleb Gatchell

800
If you’ve been paying attention, you probably noticed that the 800 is crazy fast this year. Flotrack has been comparing it to the legendary field in 2011, and I think that’s a valid comparison. I’ll go a step farther even, I think it’s better than that field, and I don’t think it’s that close. Brazier and Murphy are two unbelievably talented runners, and while Robby Andrews was great, I don’t think he was on the same level. Robby had great closing speed, Murphy and Brazier are just great. I mean, how do you argue with sub 1:46 indoors and making a world championship team? As good as Robby was, he never pulled either of those off. Anyway, I’ll step off my soapbox and actually give some predictions now. Brazier is really hard to pick against because of his consistent high 1:45 to low 1:46 type marks. He’s also winning races. However, there are four other guys in this field at sub-1:46.5, so don’t think Braziers time makes him untouchable. Clayton Murphy has had a heck of an indoor season and all signs seem to indicate that he’s peaking at exactly the right time. The other thing to consider is that he’s strong. He has run 1:46 low and 3:57 this year, so don’t expect anyone to run away from him. He’s going to be around late in the race, even if Brazier and Hernandez take it out in 49-50, and then he has the strength to finish well. Andres Arroyo and Isaiah Harris are also sub 1:46.5, but I think they’re both wildcards. Arroyo has had trouble getting to finals and running well in finals when he gets there, so that’s a definite concern. Harris is a freshman, and that’s tough to know what to do with. Experience is crucial when it comes to NCAAs, and I feel like that trumps talent in a lot of cases. Which brings me to Eliud Rutto and Shaq Walker. They both have a crazy amount of talent, and I fully expect them to mix it up at the front in the final. Don’t forget, Shaq wasn’t far off of Murphy at USA’s last year. And there’s Brannon Kidder. He was only 2nd in the final outdoors last year, so it’s not like he has a whole lot going for him. That’s sarcasm folks. Kidder may well be one of the most talented runners in this field, but if we read what the heat sheets say instead of running the races he’d barely be an all-American. That’s how crazy this field is. When it comes down to it, I have to take Murphy because he’s the perfect combination of talent and experience. Other than that, I don’t actually have a clue.
  1. Clayton Murphy (Akron)
  2. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
  3. Shaquille Walker (BYU)
  4. Eliud Rutto (MTSU)
  5. Brannon Kidder (PSU)
  6. Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)
  7. Andres Arroyo (Florida)
  8. Isaiah Harris (PSU)
Mile
So, I’ll save some space here. If you want to see all my thoughts on the mile read my W2W4 post.
  1. Blake Haney (Oregon)
  2. David Elliott (Boise State)
  3. Jonah Koech (UTEP)
  4. Henry Wynne (UVA)
  5. Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)
  6. Cole Williams (GTOWN)
  7. Thomas Awad (Penn)
  8. Prakel (Oregon)
3000
In breaking news, this 3k is also ridiculously stacked. The fact that it took 7:53 to get in is a pretty good indication in and of itself, but then you look at what these guys have done this year and your jaw drops. Ches being Ches ran 7:40 and 13:35 as well as a 3:55 split on a DMR. I guess that’s a solid year. McGorty and Yorks ran 3:53 at MPSF, and they’re both under 7:51 which is pretty dang quick. Knight and Tiernan have been forces in the NCAA ever since October when xc officially got under way, and Vargas is another guy sub 7:50. Then we have guys like Morgan McDonald, Pierce Murphy, and Ahmed Bile who have all quietly had very solid seasons. I think this race is going to be fast from the start with Tiernan taking it out the same way he did in xc. Then we’re going to see a show the last 800 as everyone with wheels gears up and tries to take down a tired King Ches. It’s going to be fun, and you’re not going to want to miss this one. In the end though, I think the King will reign supreme.
  1. Edward Cheserek (UO)
  2. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
  3. Sean McGorty (Stanford)
  4. Izaic Yorks (UW)
  5. Pat Tiernan (‘Nova)
  6. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
  7. Morgan McDonald (Wisco)
  8. Jefferson Abbey (Colorado St.)
5000
I think this race is the one I’m least sure about this weekend, other than who is going to win. There are a lot of intriguing names, whether it be Thomas Curtin who has had several good seasons that he hasn’t been able to finish with a top 5 spot now, or Futsum who ran a great 5k in December, but hasn’t run anything super impressive since. I’m a big fan of Marc Scott here. He’s been running really well the last couple seasons, and as we saw at Wisco during cross, the man can close a race. If anyone can scare Cheserek in the last 300, it’s Scott. Bennie also showed some good speed with his mile earlier this year, so I think he’ll be a major factor late. I’m also a big fan of Pierce Murphy. Veterans do well at NCAAs, and he fits that bill perfectly. He’s been here before, and he’s got the job done before. He’ll do it again. I think the finish to this race is going to be one of the most exciting all weekend. I don’t see it going out super hard, although Curtin has been known to take races out, and there are a few great closers in the field.
  1. Edward Cheserek (UO)
  2. Marc Scott (Tulsa)
  3. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
  4. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
  5. Futsum Zienesellassie (NAU)
  6. Jake Leingang (UO)
  7. Morgan Pearson (Colorado)
  8. Ryan Walling (Mississippi)
DMR 
This race is going to finish Day 1 in style. 11 of the 12 teams are seeded at sub 9:30 which is just insane. The depth in this event this year is unreal. One thing I always look at is how fresh a team is, and there is one team that really jumps out: Oklahoma State. They have two of the best milers in the NCAA, and one of the best 800 runners too, and not a single one of them is running an individual event. They are all in on this relay, and I can’t see anyone beating them. Whether they put Noelle or Thompson on the anchor, both have shown they can close with anyone, and whichever one is on the 1200 certainly isn’t going to be run away from, barring a catastrophe like we had last year. Stanford and Washington will also be fresh as anyone in an individual event for them isn’t running until day 2. That makes them both very dangerous as well. Then you have Penn State, Michigan, and Virginia, all of whom have some really great talent on their squads. Fresh or not, they are teams to be reckoned with. And by the way, Michigan will be fresh. I have to imagine Villanova is going to be in the thick of it as well. Jordy on the lead-off is deadly, and Denault can run with almost anyone as well. Finally, we have Oregon. Some people think Ches is going to come back after the 5k. Frankly, I think he could do it, but he won’t. They didn’t run him at MPSF, and I think they believe they’re good enough to win without him. Are they? Probably not. But I think they’ll still score. Blake Haney is an awfully good miler, and Prakel is pretty dang talented as well.
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. Washington
  3. Stanford
  4. Penn State
  5. Virginia
  6. Villanova
  7. Oregon
  8. Michigan

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