800
If you’ve
been paying attention, you probably noticed that the 800 is crazy fast this
year. Flotrack has been comparing it to the legendary field in 2011, and I
think that’s a valid comparison. I’ll go a step farther even, I think it’s
better than that field, and I don’t think it’s that close. Brazier and Murphy
are two unbelievably talented runners, and while Robby Andrews was great, I
don’t think he was on the same level. Robby had great closing speed, Murphy and
Brazier are just great. I mean, how do you argue with sub 1:46 indoors and
making a world championship team? As good as Robby was, he never pulled either
of those off. Anyway, I’ll step off my soapbox and actually give some
predictions now. Brazier is really hard to pick against because of his
consistent high 1:45 to low 1:46 type marks. He’s also winning races. However,
there are four other guys in this field at sub-1:46.5, so don’t think Braziers
time makes him untouchable. Clayton Murphy has had a heck of an indoor season
and all signs seem to indicate that he’s peaking at exactly the right time. The
other thing to consider is that he’s strong. He has run 1:46 low and 3:57 this
year, so don’t expect anyone to run away from him. He’s going to be around late
in the race, even if Brazier and Hernandez take it out in 49-50, and then he
has the strength to finish well. Andres Arroyo and Isaiah Harris are also sub
1:46.5, but I think they’re both wildcards. Arroyo has had trouble getting to
finals and running well in finals when he gets there, so that’s a definite
concern. Harris is a freshman, and that’s tough to know what to do with.
Experience is crucial when it comes to NCAAs, and I feel like that trumps
talent in a lot of cases. Which brings me to Eliud Rutto and Shaq Walker. They
both have a crazy amount of talent, and I fully expect them to mix it up at the
front in the final. Don’t forget, Shaq wasn’t far off of Murphy at USA’s last
year. And there’s Brannon Kidder. He was only 2nd in the final
outdoors last year, so it’s not like he has a whole lot going for him. That’s
sarcasm folks. Kidder may well be one of the most talented runners in this field,
but if we read what the heat sheets say instead of running the races he’d
barely be an all-American. That’s how crazy this field is. When it comes down
to it, I have to take Murphy because he’s the perfect combination of talent and
experience. Other than that, I don’t actually have a clue.
- Clayton Murphy (Akron)
- Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
- Shaquille Walker (BYU)
- Eliud Rutto (MTSU)
- Brannon Kidder (PSU)
- Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)
- Andres Arroyo (Florida)
- Isaiah Harris (PSU)
Mile
So, I’ll save
some space here. If you want to see all my thoughts on the mile read my W2W4
post.
- Blake Haney (Oregon)
- David Elliott (Boise State)
- Jonah Koech (UTEP)
- Henry Wynne (UVA)
- Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)
- Cole Williams (GTOWN)
- Thomas Awad (Penn)
- Prakel (Oregon)
3000
In breaking
news, this 3k is also ridiculously stacked. The fact that it took 7:53 to get
in is a pretty good indication in and of itself, but then you look at what
these guys have done this year and your jaw drops. Ches being Ches ran 7:40 and
13:35 as well as a 3:55 split on a DMR. I guess that’s a solid year. McGorty
and Yorks ran 3:53 at MPSF, and they’re both under 7:51 which is pretty dang
quick. Knight and Tiernan have been forces in the NCAA ever since October when
xc officially got under way, and Vargas is another guy sub 7:50. Then we have
guys like Morgan McDonald, Pierce Murphy, and Ahmed Bile who have all quietly
had very solid seasons. I think this race is going to be fast from the start
with Tiernan taking it out the same way he did in xc. Then we’re going to see a
show the last 800 as everyone with wheels gears up and tries to take down a
tired King Ches. It’s going to be fun, and you’re not going to want to miss
this one. In the end though, I think the King will reign supreme.
- Edward Cheserek (UO)
- Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
- Sean McGorty (Stanford)
- Izaic Yorks (UW)
- Pat Tiernan (‘Nova)
- Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
- Morgan McDonald (Wisco)
- Jefferson Abbey (Colorado St.)
5000
I think this
race is the one I’m least sure about this weekend, other than who is going to
win. There are a lot of intriguing names, whether it be Thomas Curtin who has
had several good seasons that he hasn’t been able to finish with a top 5 spot
now, or Futsum who ran a great 5k in December, but hasn’t run anything super
impressive since. I’m a big fan of Marc Scott here. He’s been running really
well the last couple seasons, and as we saw at Wisco during cross, the man can
close a race. If anyone can scare Cheserek in the last 300, it’s Scott. Bennie
also showed some good speed with his mile earlier this year, so I think he’ll
be a major factor late. I’m also a big fan of Pierce Murphy. Veterans do well
at NCAAs, and he fits that bill perfectly. He’s been here before, and he’s got
the job done before. He’ll do it again. I think the finish to this race is
going to be one of the most exciting all weekend. I don’t see it going out
super hard, although Curtin has been known to take races out, and there are a
few great closers in the field.
- Edward Cheserek (UO)
- Marc Scott (Tulsa)
- Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
- Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
- Futsum Zienesellassie (NAU)
- Jake Leingang (UO)
- Morgan Pearson (Colorado)
- Ryan Walling (Mississippi)
DMR
This race is
going to finish Day 1 in style. 11 of the 12 teams are seeded at sub 9:30 which
is just insane. The depth in this event this year is unreal. One thing I always
look at is how fresh a team is, and there is one team that really jumps out:
Oklahoma State. They have two of the best milers in the NCAA, and one of the best
800 runners too, and not a single one of them is running an individual event.
They are all in on this relay, and I can’t see anyone beating them. Whether
they put Noelle or Thompson on the anchor, both have shown they can close with
anyone, and whichever one is on the 1200 certainly isn’t going to be run away
from, barring a catastrophe like we had last year. Stanford and Washington will
also be fresh as anyone in an individual event for them isn’t running until day
2. That makes them both very dangerous as well. Then you have Penn State,
Michigan, and Virginia, all of whom have some really great talent on their
squads. Fresh or not, they are teams to be reckoned with. And by the way, Michigan
will be fresh. I have to imagine Villanova is going to be in the thick of it as
well. Jordy on the lead-off is deadly, and Denault can run with almost anyone
as well. Finally, we have Oregon. Some people think Ches is going to come back
after the 5k. Frankly, I think he could do it, but he won’t. They didn’t run
him at MPSF, and I think they believe they’re good enough to win without him.
Are they? Probably not. But I think they’ll still score. Blake Haney is an
awfully good miler, and Prakel is pretty dang talented as well.
- Oklahoma State
- Washington
- Stanford
- Penn State
- Virginia
- Villanova
- Oregon
- Michigan
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